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Latest Posts
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10259
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
That blip moved the S&P homebuilders index 5% this morning. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/sphome?countrycode=xx Toll Bros up in a similar chart from $110 in early July to $168+ today November 25th, up over 6% today. As I have said before I come here almost to do research and look for contrarian thinking. My view is that is that I am having a very difficult time seeing the levels of rate cuts that WuLaw sees. Doesn't mean he isn't right, but I am not yet convinced I am wrong. The excitement of investors for home stocks, clearly shows that more folks at this point are betting on and upwards trajectory for builders as an industry. Rocket Cos up over 9% today. All related to that downward move in the 10 year. Those are big fucking moves in stock values, on very small hints at a change of trajectory. Seems too good to be true to me, so I started buying UVIX this morning as a hedge against my Palantir AI gains. I honestly want to cut my PLTR exposure down to my options but hoping this market rallies a bit more and I can shift that gain into 2025. AGAIN - not rooting against rates falling. As I want all you guys in the industry to make money, but I view political uncertainty as huge, and rate cuts as less certain than even I had thought. I still think the FED nearly has to cut in December to maintain a degree of consistency in direction. But the economic data they have prioritized of late, barely suggests that cut is needed? So are some of these stock run ups justifiable? SO IF - you thought that builders were going to have potential issues if rate cuts do not materialize, are there any particular publicly traded builders you think are weaker than the others? -
2260
Tell me about New York City
Just got back last night and had a wonderful trip as always. It was a rainy trip with about 36ish hours straight of drizzle but we made it work Low key favorite meal was the Lomo Saltado at the Flor de Mayo location on Amsterdam and 83rd after the Children's Museum. Blue Note/Birdland > Broadway still especially at the price point but A Wonderful World was really good too. James Monroe Iglehart is talented as fuck. -
98
The New Democratic Platform
Sean Harris on the Bulwark podcast last week brought this up. In his opinion, this was a really salient issue* to swing voters and the Kamala campaign made an enormous tactical failure in not rebutting it in front of a large audience like the debate or on Rogan. I disagree this, but several of these podcasts guests or hosts have made the case that the biggest weakness of the Kamala campaign was 2020 candidate Kamala. *it was salient in as much as it became a proxy for leftist cultural stuff like latinx, pronouns, DEI, etc. -
312
Game Week Thread Game week 13, 2024, Texas at aggy
Fair. Glad you're here to run this conglomeration of absolutely wonderful idoits. -
312
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