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  • The fancy equity derivatives vol arb thread... a.k.a. Options trading extravaganza


    52-80

    Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the road to degeneracy.  Without having to reinvent the wheel, and then writing a book about reinventing the wheel, i'll just sprinkle some starter yeast and, like a beautiful acid trip, we'll see where it  takes us....

    Why options trading

    • Leverage.  You can control a lot more stock for $.
    • Flexibility.  You can play any sentiment - bullish, bearish, neutral - and you can pick and choose the risk-reward!  Instead of just choosing a safe vs risky stock, for any given stock, you can choose how much you want to lever its movement.
    • Engagement.  Options have an element of time expiration in their construction, which obliges you to stay in (somewhat) active and engaged in the market.

    What are options

    • These are contracts that grants the contract holder the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell 100 units of stock at an agreed price, before a certain date.
    • It has these elements: Strike price, Expiration date
    • Call option - contract holder can buy ABC stock from contract seller.  option buyer "calls" the shares away from sellers' account
    • Put option - contract holder can sell ABC stock to contract seller.  option buyer "puts" the shares in sellers' account.
    • Options are tradeable instruments like units of stocks.  For our practical purposes, we don't really worry about the above (yet).  We buy when cheap and sell when high.  Or sell when high and buy when cheap.

    How do you price options?  (i.e. what is cheap?)

    • If you're a nerd, you'd invoke the Black-Scholes equation.  If, like me, you failed 9th grade trig, you can think of it in more simple abstract terms:
      • options premium = Intrinsic Value + Extrinsic Value = (Strike$-Stock$)+(Volatility*Time)

    Take Apple, which is 135$ right now.  How much would you pay to have the right to purchase shares of Apple for $130/share at anytime....

    • before the end of the week?
      • At least $5/share, because this agreement already has $5 of intrinsic value (135-130), and youre paying for the chance Apple might run up higher.  This contract is at 5.25 right now
    • before the end of the month?
      • More than the above, because there is more time value (the extrinsic) in the contract.  This contract is at 7.45 right now.

    How do I profit from this information?

    • The cro-magnum approach is if you think AAPL goes up, you buy the call options for leverage, and if it does go up, you can sell it for higher profit % than trading the shares, using same cash.  (sometimes).  It requires the right conditions to be profitable.  I trade this way this sometimes.
    • The real approach is to exploit changes in extrinsic value, buying when low, and selling when high.  This is based on the fact that expected future volatility is almost always higher than actual realized volatility, meaning options often cost more than they're mathematically worth.  So I sell an option, then later buy it back when it becomes cheaper or worthless.  I trade this way all of the time.  Think of it as selling overpriced insurance.
    • As stated above there is a million ways to trade options, which is the beauty of it, but overwhelmingly i sell overpriced options, and sometimes pounce on buying underpriced options.

    Where do I trade options?

    Basically any broker will allow it.  But you first have to request permission to trade options.  They're typically bracketed into different levels of approvals which grants you more exotic strategies and ways to bankrupt yourself.  All it takes  is a quick questionnaire where you lie and tell them you have an undergrad from Booth and an MBA from Wharton.

    For my money Tastyworks is a very clean options-centric platform for active trading, but all the other guys should be good as well.


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    5 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

    15 contracts of amc at $18 strike rather.  Bought $3k worth 

    toss a coin to  your witcher when the brinks truck backs up

     

    ***

     

    my new regular trade now is shorting volatility instruments (vxx/uvxy via long puts) when they spike.  its not that pretty or bountiful but its a decent steady gain.  occasionally buy and sit on svxy as well.

     

     

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    On 5/18/2021 at 3:14 AM, 52-80 said:

    toss a coin to  your witcher when the brinks truck backs up

     

    ***

     

    my new regular trade now is shorting volatility instruments (vxx/uvxy via long puts) when they spike.  its not that pretty or bountiful but its a decent steady gain.  occasionally buy and sit on svxy as well.

     

     

    so far so good

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    Couldn’t help but buy puts on RIDE. Shit popped off this week after announcing production cuts, slashing 22 forecasts, and needing more cash. So Effin dumb.

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    so big F.

    50 minutes from market close, saw TSLA was 633 and dropping, so decided to throw a few hundreds bucks at it going lower. 

    Bought 5 x 630P , same day expiry.  Cost $0.93 each (=465$ expended).  Was targeting a close at $1.86, to double the gain.

    I forgot that broker had long options on auto-exercise.  Meaning if my options went in-the-money, it would put my account short 500 shares, which draws ~$300k free cash balance (ignoring margins)... which i did not have.  So 30 minutes from market close, broker automatically liquidated the options for $1.00 each.

    TSLA proceeded to plummet and flatlined at 625.  Option ended up at $5.00.  Would've given a nice $2000 , or a $1.5k return to close the day.  But I got a total of $35 instead.  Less commisions, less tax...barely good for a 6 pack of beer.

     

     

     

     

     

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    Just read the whole thread after a buddy asked me what I knew about options yesterday (nothing). 
     

    Every time I thought I started to get a base understanding you guys would say something else and I’d be lost again. I’ll have to start a paper account and play to try and learn a little. 
     

    Selling covered call options: If I own a position I’m looking to exit at $X is there any reason (other than the upside risk if it pops hard) not to sell covered calls at the target exit price? 

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    9 minutes ago, Archer said:

    Just read the whole thread after a buddy asked me what I knew about options yesterday (nothing). 
     

    Every time I thought I started to get a base understanding you guys would say something else and I’d be lost again. I’ll have to start a paper account and play to try and learn a little. 
     

    Selling covered call options: If I own a position I’m looking to exit at $X is there any reason (other than the upside risk if it pops hard) not to sell covered calls at the target exit price? 

    You can open a td Ameritrade account and paper trade options using ThinkorSwim, great way to learn options, you don't even need to fund it.  As for your covered calls, select a price you would be happy selling at, if it hits you are out plus your premium, if it doesn't, you collect the premium. It is nice being the house, but also sucks if you miss a big run, so need to be happy with the exit. 

    Edited by Lobwedgephil
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    On 5/27/2021 at 4:39 PM, 52-80 said:

    Damn, you multipled on the intrinsic value incrase alone. Congrats for still holding onto them

    yes exactly, i may sell the options soon and re-buy at market...just to lock in.  Dont have enough in the account to exercise unfortunately.  This has been an extremely interesting play.  20% of outstanding are shorted, so i think the cover play will drive it up further.

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    12 hours ago, Archer said:

    Just read the whole thread after a buddy asked me what I knew about options yesterday (nothing). 
     

    Every time I thought I started to get a base understanding you guys would say something else and I’d be lost again. I’ll have to start a paper account and play to try and learn a little. 
     

    Selling covered call options: If I own a position I’m looking to exit at $X is there any reason (other than the upside risk if it pops hard) not to sell covered calls at the target exit price? 

    There is an exercise option vs selling them.   The reason to not exercise is you will have to have enough money in the account to buy them (assuming there has been a big run up). The downside there is in my case I would be re- buying at nearly a 100% markup since i originally bought in.  I have 700 shares plus the 15 options.

    Remember options are fractional shares, so to exercise you are buying the whole share.  Now, you may be able to exercise and immediately sell, I am like you and am just learning.

    With TD, you have to be approved to trade options, and im not sure of the criteria.  Could be account history or balance or it may just be ceremonial that they require "approval".  My TD account is a rollover IRA, so i have not added to it since the rollover 10 years ago. I have just used it to be more aggressive (all of my other portfolio is indexed with Vanguard).

    In my case, i will likely sell the options, then re-buy unless i get educated enough to exercise and sell in one transaction.  I am going to call them and go through my options, no pun intended. 

    Edited by jdhorn92
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    Either I missed something completely, or this was just recently added to my broker:  the ability to trade options on the actual VIX index (a product from chicago board of op ex)

    The VIX is commonly used as a portfolio hedge -- they go UP when the SP500 goes down.  The ability to trade VIX, instead of products that tracked the VIX (like tickers VXX, UVXY) has important distinction: it retains its value and market-inversing behavior better.

    VXX/UVXY/similar constantly rolls over their holding basket with VIX futures.  Because futures curves are typically in contango, the result is that VXX/UVXY/similar suffers from perpetual erosion of value.  If you look at long term chart, these things are on a perpetual downslope, with small spikes when SP500 gets disturbed.  (This behavior actually makes it great for a separate trading strategy.) 

    The VIX itself doesn't have those perpetual downslope (it is mean-reverting), and it has much larger spikes.   So if you buy VIX options to stabilize against SP500 disturbances, youre gonna get a much greater effect.

     

    Shits useful

    https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/vix_options/VIX_fact_sheet_2019.pdf

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    I gotta take a second and lap this shit up. $RIDE

    Release financial statements saying hey we’re in trouble, need cash, a few wks ago. A day later the most recent meme moon shot began and swept it up in the current so I bought puts thinking reality has to hit. It just kept mooning since, my puts down 95%.

    Then this hits today and in minutes I’m up 30% with options exp Friday.

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    Short SPY 400P expiring last day of the year - pays around ~6.5$

    Long SPY 20x500C expiring last day of the year - costs about 32c each or 6.4$ total.

    Total cash outlay is zero, the credit from the short "pays for" the long.  But it will occupy about ~$5k in buying power (/collateral) depending on your broker and their requirements.

    If SPY drops 395 or so, you are at breakeven.  It takes an 12% drop and some anti-American wishfulness for that to happen.  If it drops further, you are barely to scratch loss territory.

    If SPY grows moderately, you win.  If SPY grows at the same damn pace it has for the last 6 months.... *rocket emoji* *rocket emoji* *rocket emoji*

     

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    2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    Short SPY 400P expiring last day of the year - pays around ~6.5$

    Long SPY 20x500C expiring last day of the year - costs about 32c each or 6.4$ total.

    Total cash outlay is zero, the credit from the short "pays for" the long.  But it will occupy about ~$5k in buying power (/collateral) depending on your broker and their requirements.

    If SPY drops 395 or so, you are at breakeven.  It takes an 12% drop and some anti-American wishfulness for that to happen.  If it drops further, you are barely to scratch loss territory.

    If SPY grows moderately, you win.  If SPY grows at the same damn pace it has for the last 6 months.... *rocket emoji* *rocket emoji* *rocket emoji*

     

    I like it for a fairly low risk trade. Not my style of trading, but I do sell a lot of naked puts. 

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    21 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    Short SPY 400P expiring last day of the year - pays around ~6.5$

    Long SPY 20x500C expiring last day of the year - costs about 32c each or 6.4$ total.

    image.png.fb6b0b5a3c58277a6b7002b5fed5a5e3.png

    I LOVE THIS!

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    On 9/16/2021 at 6:57 PM, Chapo said:

    image.png.fb6b0b5a3c58277a6b7002b5fed5a5e3.png

    I LOVE THIS!

    the short 400P was pretty much guaranteed to be a winner.  (i closed it at ~$4.80 profit out of the possible $6.5)

    the long 20x500C was in the hole for a long time... it dripped down to the 10cent range for most of october, and now at 59cent (original price 32c) for almost 100% profit.... with open skies ahead!!!!!!

     

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    14 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    the short 400P was pretty much guaranteed to be a winner.  (i closed it at ~$4.80 profit out of the possible $6.5)

    the long 20x500C was in the hole for a long time... it dripped down to the 10cent range for most of october, and now at 59cent (original price 32c) for almost 100% profit.... with open skies ahead!!!!!!

     

    Lol, great minds.... I closed the puts today also. Was tempted to bank the calls profit too but YOLO. We are playing with house money now!

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    Wrote some covered calls this week:

    AAPL: Jan 28 $195 @ $ 2.25

    ABNB: Feb 18 $190 @ $ 3.80

    AMAT: Feb 18 $180 @ $2.85

     

    Pays for some Xmas gifts for sure. Now I need to learn to not look at them for a bit. 
     

    I usually look for > 8% OOTM, 60-80 days to exp, > 1% return, and hopefully near all time highs. 

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