COVID-19 vaccine discussion

34 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So the study doesn't argue the fact that people who have never had COVID but have had the vaccine are (obviously) better off than those who have never had COVID and haven't had the vaccine.

The study also indicates that people who have had COVID and also the vaccine are better off than those who have had COVID and haven't had the vaccine.

So you have two groups, have had COVID and haven't, and both groups are better off if they've had the vaccine.

Thank you for your contribution.

I think one comment brought up is that re-testing for COVID was voluntary, and the authors point out that the reports of people who had COVID saying they never got it again relied on them to get tested if they felt sick. It's a reasonable question to ask if you had it once, how likely would you be to get tested again if you develop symptoms, perhaps thinking 'no, I had it once no way I have it again'. 

The data are in disagreement with the other study posted yesterday (which is to be expected - we are learning about this month by month). Interesting though.

49 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

 

 

From the article you linked:

In another analysis, the researchers compared more than 14,000 people who had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and were still unvaccinated with an equivalent number of previously infected people who subsequently received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The team found that the unvaccinated group was twice as likely to be reinfected as the singly vaccinated.

“We continue to underestimate the importance of natural infection immunity … especially when [infection] is recent,” says Eric Topol, a physician-scientist at Scripps Research. “And when you bolster that with one dose of vaccine, you take it to levels you can’t possibly match with any vaccine in the world right now.”

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Aww. This was probably your last post before getting sourced. Shame really. 

That’s ok, the new board allows postmortem negging

Why does Muy Frio trigger some of y’all so much?

1 hour ago, sidis said:

you getting nowthis'd?

One knuckle only. Everybody wins. 

What data do they have to support moving up the timeline? It would be nice to know specifics. 
 

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

From the article you linked:

In another analysis, the researchers compared more than 14,000 people who had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and were still unvaccinated with an equivalent number of previously infected people who subsequently received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The team found that the unvaccinated group was twice as likely to be reinfected as the singly vaccinated.

“We continue to underestimate the importance of natural infection immunity … especially when [infection] is recent,” says Eric Topol, a physician-scientist at Scripps Research. “And when you bolster that with one dose of vaccine, you take it to levels you can’t possibly match with any vaccine in the world right now.”

Absolute risk reduction, NNT etc. 

 

Anyway, I gather most people here believe you should do whatever in your power to lower your risk of covid to the lowest levels possible, even if already quite small. In that case, would people here support the vaccine mandates being extended to include your booster status going forward?

4 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

Anyway, I gather most people here believe you should do whatever in your power to lower your risk of covid to the lowest levels possible, even if already quite small. In that case, would people here support the vaccine mandates being extended to include your booster status going forward?

You should name your next sock as "sealion"

3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

In other news, Texas reached 15M residents vaccinated earlier this week and should finally hit 70% of adults (18+) when CDC website updates today or tomorrow. Slowly inching closer to the national average (73.5%).

Slight correction, the 15M figure was just for adults 18+. Adding in the 12-17 crowd, we're at 16.4M vaccinated.

We did end up reaching the 70% of adults mark today.

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Did mine yesterday around noon, just got results.  If you have not gotten the text (I have not), register an account at: http://www.cpllabs.com/sonicmyaccess  Results show up there first.

Moderna

Last vax date: 03/04/21

805 on 08/26/2021

Me: 1077

The wife: 876

Anastasis: 805

 

 

This is of course a great victory by me and a cause for celebration. 

Y'all, I lied and got the Moderna at a nearby Pharmacy. I was nervous for lying that it was my first vaccine and said yes that I had insurance and gave them the card. Oops. They gave me the shot but I guess I'll get in trouble with my insurance company since they will pay out early for the booster?  But fuck it, 315 is low compared to everyone else and I have to go into the office daily. Luckily no one is usually in with me but still have lots of people in the building. Also, with 315 I wasn't about to go out among people even to sit outside with a mask. Now, maybe I can go see Gary motherfucking Clark next time he does Blues on the Green. Or something at Waterloo Park's new amphitheater. Sheeeit.

22 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Me: 1077

The wife: 876

Anastasis: 805

 

 

This is of course a great victory by me and a cause for celebration. 

Well my wife’s scores beat both of you and I am getting a booster tomorrow so take that. 

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Well my wife’s scores beat both of you and I am getting a booster tomorrow so take that. 

WTF are y’all comparing, antibodies? How do I get that measured?

Wait, you guys are getting antibodies?!? /we'rethemillers

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Well my wife’s scores beat both of you and I am getting a booster tomorrow so take that. 

Yeah but apparently she cheated and got the Covid at some point. 
 

BTW glad no symptoms ever so she be like super immune. I was negative on the Covid which is what I suspected. If I had gotten it pre vax I bet I would have had symptoms. Lucked out I guess because while I was careful I wasn’t all that careful. 

11 minutes ago, XYZ said:

WTF are y’all comparing, antibodies? How do I get that measured?

https://sph.uth.edu/projects/texascares/

4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

https://sph.uth.edu/projects/texascares/

They sent me the basic results but I've yet to get the detailed numbers.  How long does that take?  The link they sent me just takes me to the general website where I login but there's nothing there by the negative/positive thing for S and N.  

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

They sent me the basic results but I've yet to get the detailed numbers.  How long does that take?  The link they sent me just takes me to the general website where I login but there's nothing there by the negative/positive thing for S and N.  

Another 30 minutes to an hour. That was my experience anyway. 

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Slight correction, the 15M figure was just for adults 18+. Adding in the 12-17 crowd, we're at 16.4M vaccinated.

We did end up reaching the 70% of adults mark today.

I saw somewhere that what pushed us over the line was a shitload of college students getting vaccinated.

Wish it was the olds who found religion with Delta.

49 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

Y'all, I lied and got the Moderna at a nearby Pharmacy. I was nervous for lying that it was my first vaccine and said yes that I had insurance and gave them the card. Oops.

j/k, if I had your levels, I'd be lying to get a booster.

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I saw somewhere that what pushed us over the line was a shitload of college students getting vaccinated.

Wish it was the olds who found religion with Delta.

I'll take the college kids.  They are more likely to congregate and party, and thus transmit.  So the less likely they are to spread it, the better.  Bird by bird, man.  Gotta take the wins where we can get 'em.

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'll take the college kids.  They are more likely to congregate and party, and thus transmit.  So the less likely they are to spread it, the better.  Bird by bird, man.  Gotta take the wins where we can get 'em.

Every arm counts.

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

j/k, if I had your levels, I'd be lying to get a booster.

Rebecca!

On 8/26/2021 at 5:53 AM, Muy Frio said:

My point was you still research treatments because even if the whole country is vaccinated then some people will still get sick. That’s not “propaganda”. 

Hey so more kids are starting to die from Covid. Really young ones too. You still ok with what you do here and likely all over the net? Is the money worth that?

2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Yeah but apparently she cheated and got the Covid at some point. 

Well, I cheated and got the booster before I tested and am "above range" X>2,500. 

Tell him what he's won, Bob!

6 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

WSOP requiring proof of vaccination to play, period, no neg test or prior infection accepted. Vax up or enjoy your God-given right to stay home and do what you want in your home, as described by American Hero Jason Isbell.

Damn woke Poker players. 

20 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Well, I cheated and got the booster before I tested and am "above range" X>2,500. 

Tell him what he's won, Bob!

1 hour ago, hornian said:

Damn woke Poker players. 

Funny that guys who know odds would opt to get vaxxed.

2 hours ago, dcbc said:

Well, I cheated and got the booster before I tested and am "above range" X>2,500. 

Tell him what he's won, Bob!

They really need to change their survey data collection to ask people to specify all doses and dates cause the boosters are going to fuck their analysis up if they don’t. Surprised they only asked for late date cause it takes no additional effort to just ask for all and give people 3 or 4 spots. 

 

He talked to Dr. Faucci? That looks like one of the Get Smart "Cones of Silence" rooms: You know where the cones come down and everyone is like "What? What did you say?"

46 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

They really need to change their survey data collection to ask people to specify all doses and dates cause the boosters are going to fuck their analysis up if they don’t. Surprised they only asked for late date cause it takes no additional effort to just ask for all and give people 3 or 4 spots. 

It was weird, it asked me how many shots.  I told it 3.  Then it asked me for the date of my second shot, but no option to pick the third.  So I gave the date of the booster, which I figured would screw it up less than giving the second shot date.

8 hours ago, Captainant said:

You should name your next sock as "sealion"

That is a useful link. Thanks for the knowledge.

Peyton Powell (who I think was committed to us at one point) just became a hero to a lot of people. 
 
[/url] Also get bodied in the replies:
 

Yikes - this kid has all kinds of red flags.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/08/27/new-ucsf-study-vaccine-resistant-viruses-are-driving-breakthrough-covid-infections/

New UCSF study: Vaccine-resistant viruses are driving ‘breakthrough’ COVID infections

‘As long as the virus continues to circulate, it will continue to mutate’

 

 

SAN FRANCISCO, CA. – DEC. 30: Dr. Charles Chiu of UCSF is sequencing hundreds of Northern California viruses from recent UK travelers to help understand the latest mutations. He was photographed Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, in San Francisco, Calif. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)

By Lisa M. Krieger | lkrieger@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group

PUBLISHED: August 27, 2021 at 9:30 a.m. | UPDATED: August 27, 2021 at 3:11 p.m.

Waning immunity and ferocious contagion are known to be fueling the troubling surge in “breakthrough” COVID-19 cases among vaccinated people.

But a new UC San Francisco analysis of 1,373 Bay Area cases reveals a third, and more ominous, problem: The coronavirus is learning to outsmart our immune system.

Variants with antibody-resistant mutations are playing an ever-larger role in our highly vaccinated region’s pandemic, according to research by prominent virologist Dr. Charles Chiu.

His team found that 78% of infections in fully vaccinated people among the study were caused by variants with these mutations, compared to 48% of the cases among unvaccinated people, who remained an easier target for earlier generations of the virus. Overall, the proportion of cases linked to these variants more than doubled between February and June.

The findings add to a growing list of studies that are unraveling why the vaccinated are still so susceptible to infection — and provide a deeper understanding of what we may encounter in the future.

Vaccinated people are still much more protected from serious illness, hospitalization and death than unvaccinated people, the study confirmed.

“But I worry that as long as the virus is circulating, it will continue to mutate and evolve, which will, in turn, allow it to continue spreading,” he said.

The study suggests that new iterations of the virus will likely become even more resistant, over time, “until, eventually, you’re going to see the vaccine not work, or its efficacy will be reduced significantly,” he said.

Our vaccines won’t suddenly become useless, he added. So far, it appears to be a gradual process. The resistant variants will slowly dominate over time, he predicted.

The rollout of booster vaccines, planned to begin the week of Sept. 20, will help bolster our defense against these breakthroughs, Chiu said.

But as the virus continues to evolve, he said, vaccines may need to be reformulated to keep us safe.

The team’s second major finding was more reassuring: People who never develop symptoms during a “breakthrough” infection carry very low levels of virus – a finding that should ease concerns that vaccinated people are unknowingly fueling the pandemic.

However, vaccinated people who do have symptoms had the same levels of virus as infected unvaccinated people – so can spread the virus. This confirms a finding first revealed weeks ago by a CDC study in Provincetown, Massachusetts.

“You’re essentially as infectious as someone who was unvaccinated,” he said.

The UCSF team performed genome sequencing of viral samples from Bay Area residents who sought treatment for COVID-19 at UCSF hospitals and clinics between Feb. 1 and June 30, as well as people whose infections were detected at community test sites. Of these, 125, or 9.1%, were vaccine “breakthrough” cases. The study, published as a preprint on Wednesday, has not yet been peer-reviewed or corroborated by other investigators.

A great concern is the study’s observation that vaccinated people infected with these “escape mutants” can likely transmit them to others, including the vaccinated, said infectious disease expert Dr. Gary Schoolnik, a clinician and professor of medicine at Stanford Health Care, who was not involved in the study.

“The implication of their finding is that vaccine-resistant mutants of the COVID virus could disseminate more widely in the population,” he said. “If that were to occur, it might necessitate the development and use of COVID booster vaccines that specifically target such mutants.”

Overall,three factors are driving breakthroughs, according to Chiu, director of the UCSF-Abbott Viral Diagnostics and Discovery Center and associate director of the UCSF Clinical Microbiology Laboratory.

One is exposure to the large number of viral particles shed by those infected with the delta variant. People infected with delta may shed approximately four times more virus than those infected with the original virus.  A few of these viruses can slip by our antibody defense, causing infection.

Another is waning immunity, according to recent Moderna and Pfizer vaccine data. Six to nine months after vaccination, our bodies produce fewer effective antibodies.

The third reason is this newer and worrisome trend: infection by a variant carrying resilient mutations. The new study found that the proportion of cases caused by these variants increased over five months from 40% to 89%.

The team did not study the effect of the mutations on the effectiveness of the other arm of the immune system, involving T cells that kill the virus.

Vaccination is not to be blamed for the increase in variants with these mutations, Chiu said. Because we naturally produce antibodies in response to exposure and infection, the virus is constantly changing to survive.

“The virus is going to evolve to become antibody resistant,  whether or not you deploy a vaccine,” he said. “But because we have a vaccine, there’s a way to prevent the virus from spreading and evolving further.”

One of these mutations, L452R, is built into the genetic code of the dangerous delta variant, which now dominates. But this and other mutations, including E484K and F490S, can be carried by other resistant variants, such as beta, gamma, epsilon and lambda. Our antibodies are less effective in fighting off variants carrying these mutations.

These mutations don’t render our antibodies useless against the virus.  Resistance is almost always partial; it’s not an “all or none” characteristic.

“This decrease in vaccine efficacy due to infection by a resistant variant can be minor, or significant,” he said.

The mutations make it tougher for antibodies to bind to the virus, so the virus is able to slip through and infect a cell.  More of them are needed to neutralize the virus.

A booster dramatically increases our levels of antibodies. A new and reformulated booster, targeted for a particular variant such as delta, could push them still higher.

Ultimately, we will control this pandemic by vaccinating as many people as possible, Chiu said.

"Otherwise, if the virus continues to circulate and mutate,” he said, “this may become a never-ending round of whack-a-mole.”

Edited August 28, 2021 by Bevo

I broke it?

18 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Me: 1077

The wife: 876

Anastasis: 805

 

 

This is of course a great victory by me and a cause for celebration. 

 

17 hours ago, Lobo said:

They sent me the basic results but I've yet to get the detailed numbers.  How long does that take?  The link they sent me just takes me to the general website where I login but there's nothing there by the negative/positive thing for S and N.  

 

wait this is what i got after following the email link. 

From the lab report.

 

does that mean my antibody #s are >2500? what's the 0.0 number?  wish they'd have an explanation of what these things meant.

 

 

 

So the big reveal is that breakthrough infections in the vaccinated are increasingly by vaccine resistant strains?  Isn’t that captain obvious territory?

and the part about the virus “outsmarting” vaccines is just fear mongerimg. That’s not how mutations work. 

5 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

 

 

wait this is what i got after following the email link. 

From the lab report.

 

does that mean my antibody #s are >2500? what's the 0.0 number?  wish they'd have an explanation of what these things meant.

 

 

 

I tested above range as well. The zero number means it didn't detect that you've had an actual covid infection so no natural antibodies(I think lol)

 
what's the 0.0 number? 

Percent chance you’d survive a COVID infection.

16 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

what's the 0.0 number?

Got my results for whomever is tracking data.   I'm Pfizer with last shot on 3/2.   Levels are 658 and negative on prior infection.    I know we don't really have good data yet on what that means but my instinct is I should probably look into getting a booster sometime in September.

Somebody must have been reading our thread and decided to do a data entry dump over at CPL.  Just got mine.  Last show 24 March.  850 on the S, 0.0 on the N.  Like everybody and their mom, I thought maybe I had it in February/March of 2020 because my daughter and I were sick for about 2 weeks and my neighbor had just gotten back from Wuhan on business and spits a lot when he talks and we hung out with them a lot on those particularly nice winter days.  

Obviously we need a viable median/bell curve model built for about how long it takes your S-numbers to wane after vaccination.  5 months in, I'm at 850.  That sounds about in the middle of what others are reporting, even a tad lower.  So I'm going to continue under the assumption, I don't need the first booster in 6 months/late September.  But should likely count on it in late November/8 months.  Do I have that right?  UT Public Health had a blurb in a TLS update on Friday, they're already getting loads of great data from this study, it's being deployed across the whole of the UT System as well.  Hopefully other academic teaching hospitals can follow suit and we can really get our arms around about the burn rate of the vaccine and how/when booster prioritization could/should work in late 2021/all of 2022.  

Now then, 850.  Does that mean I can start boozing it up for football season?  

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Somebody must have been reading our thread and decided to do a data entry dump over at CPL.  Just got mine.  Last show 24 March.  850 on the S, 0.0 on the N.  Like everybody and their mom, I thought maybe I had it in February/March of 2020 because my daughter and I were sick for about 2 weeks and my neighbor had just gotten back from Wuhan on business and spits a lot when he talks and we hung out with them a lot on those particularly nice winter days.  

Obviously we need a viable median/bell curve model built for about how long it takes your S-numbers to wane after vaccination.  5 months in, I'm at 850.  That sounds about in the middle of what others are reporting, even a tad lower.  So I'm going to continue under the assumption, I don't need the first booster in 6 months/late September.  But should likely count on it in late November/8 months.  Do I have that right?  UT Public Health had a blurb in a TLS update on Friday, they're already getting loads of great data from this study, it's being deployed across the whole of the UT System as well.  Hopefully other academic teaching hospitals can follow suit and we can really get our arms around about the burn rate of the vaccine and how/when booster prioritization could/should work in late 2021/all of 2022.  

Now then, 850.  Does that mean I can start boozing it up for football season?  

If you stopped after last football season you are doing it wrong.

57 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Got my results for whomever is tracking data.   I'm Pfizer with last shot on 3/2.   Levels are 658 and negative on prior infection.    I know we don't really have good data yet on what that means but my instinct is I should probably look into getting a booster sometime in September.

I went for my annual physical yesterday and doc told me to get the booster at 6 months.

Me: Not 8?

"No, 6."

Is there any data reflecting probability of symptomatic infection by antibody level?  I'm guessing no as seems like that would be difficult to ascertain in any meaningful population and I would also assume highly dependent on viral load at infection.

Just got my moderna booster. We'll see about side effects. If I had known I was >2500 I probably wouldn't have scheduled the shot.

Wife just had hers tested. Negative for natural Covid antibodies. Vaccine antibodies were 340. She’s a pediatrician and her 2nd Pfizer dose was 1/6/21. She got her booster shot today.

1 hour ago, gsoda3 said:

Just got my moderna booster. We'll see about side effects. If I had known I was >2500 I probably wouldn't have scheduled the shot.

Same, but my I have antibody envy with my measly 805, so no ragrets. 

39 minutes ago, shadetree said:

. Vaccine antibodies were 340.

Now I don’t feel that bad. 

2 hours ago, Skipper said:

Is there any data reflecting probability of symptomatic infection by antibody level?  I'm guessing no as seems like that would be difficult to ascertain in any meaningful population and I would also assume highly dependent on viral load at infection.

I assume that is what the tx cares study is getting at, among other things.