COVID-19 vaccine discussion

15 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Fauci seems really certain. 
 

 

On any given day I read between 2 and 6 newly released peer reviewed COVID manuscripts in the high impact journals.  I really question how many papers Fauci sits down, reads, and digests on a daily basis.  I know where I work at lot of the people in middle management and higher are inundated with so many meetings and bureaucratic obligations few of them get more than a summary from staff.  I see other other high level scientists publicly stating the same thing, so I know I'm not alone in questioning this.

For example, the way Fauci has addressed the question of vaccinated persons spreading the disease and the lack of guidance for those who have recovered from COVID indicates there is a disconnect between him and the actual literature.  The data CDC used to make the claim that vaccinated people can spread it just like an unvaccinated person was garbage, and there have been multiple studies demonstrating that it is likely a rare event.  There are multiple high quality studies that demonstrate people who have recovered from COVID are well protected, and we've also known for months that in recovered individuals the second shot is likely not providing any substantial benefit.  And yet, I have yet to hear any mention that spread from vaccinated individuals is likely a rare event (particularly if you are vaccinated and asymptomatic) in his interviews or in the media, nor have I seen any specific guidance for those that have recovered from infection.    

We might very well need a third shot.  But at 8 months I think the data is very weak to go ahead and give one to healthy people.  Given the slow mutating nature of this virus and the preliminary promising data on the development of long term immunity, my bet is that a boost every 5-10 years will be warranted, but it might be even longer.  Right now though, the evidence for a third shot is very weak and we need to be focusing on getting people naïve to the infection vaccinated both here and abroad. 

I am not trying to Fauci bash.  He has an impossible job.  But given how divisive he has become he is likely doing more harm than good constantly giving interviews, particularly if he is giving direction and opinions without fully grasping the current literature.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Dontshootrude
citation

On 9/5/2021 at 11:07 PM, Anastasis said:

The nucleocapsid antibodies are reported on a different scale, an indexed score.

https://www.fda.gov/media/137605/download

I appreciate the info, but after a couple of times through the linked document I haven't been able to decipher what the indexed score scale is.  Can you break it down for me?

1 minute ago, orange dream said:

I appreciate the info, but after a couple of times through the linked document I haven't been able to decipher what the indexed score scale is.  Can you break it down for me?

Big number = good

Small number = bad

A woman I went to high school with is a molecular biologist with a PhD.  She convinced her parents they shouldn't get vaccinated.  Covid killed both of them.  Of all the terrible stories from the last couple of years, that one pisses me off the most.  Yes, she's aggy.

2 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

A woman I went to high school with is a molecular biologist with a PhD.  She convinced her parents they shouldn't get vaccinated.  Covid killed both of them.  Of all the terrible stories from the last couple of years, that one pisses me off the most.  Yes, she's aggy.

She should be stripped of her degree.  That is up there for the most aggy thing I've heard in a while. 

A woman I went to high school with is a molecular biologist with a PhD.  She convinced her parents they shouldn't get vaccinated.  Covid killed both of them.  Of all the terrible stories from the last couple of years, that one pisses me off the most.  Yes, she's aggy.

I have a cousin who is a Princeton PhD molecular biologist….she has called most events in the pandemic accurately all the way through, including timing of expected case spikes etc. She strongly urged all of us to get an mRNA vaccine as soon as we could.

Yeah, Princeton smarter than aggy. Shocker.

Also, I got my cloud drawn on Saturday, just got a text of my result (no precious infection, yes on antibodies from my vaccine), but no number. I signed into the CPL portal, but they don’t have any data for me. Where are y’all getting your numbers?

5 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

A woman I went to high school with is a molecular biologist with a PhD.  She convinced her parents they shouldn't get vaccinated.  Covid killed both of them.  Of all the terrible stories from the last couple of years, that one pisses me off the most.  Yes, she's aggy.

You know, part of me feels "fuck around/find out", but that is so fucked.  The parents probably blindly believed their daughter was smart about such matters.  And paid with their lives.

Are other countries having issues getting people to get the damn shot or is this an American phenomenon?

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, I got my cloud drawn on Saturday, just got a text of my result (no precious infection, yes on antibodies from my vaccine), but no number. I signed into the CPL portal, but they don’t have any data for me. Where are y’all getting your numbers?

I think it takes a day or so after you get the text before the actual results are posted in the portal.  At least it did for me.

It would be tough to measure that because we also awash in extra doses that are going unused (I think 15mm at last count).  it's one thing to avoid the vaccine because not enough people in your nation have gotten it yet and you are unsure.  But we've distributed hundreds of millions of doses and 9 people have died from but we're still like, "Meh, let's see how things shake out in Andorra before I put that needle in my arm."  

If Aggies and other ignorant subsets of the population are dying of the virus despite a chance to be vaccinated, I fail to see what the problem is.  We're clearing the Dumb American South like a fucking wildfire right now and I'm pissing myself laughing.  

Edited September 7, 2021 by Lobo

5 hours ago, Dontshootrude said:

need to be focusing on getting people naïve to the infection vaccinated both here and abroad. 

Uh huh. Sounds great. How exactly are we going to get the horse dewormer eaters to get a shot?

 

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, I got my cloud drawn on Saturday, just got a text of my result (no precious infection, yes on antibodies from my vaccine), but no number. I signed into the CPL portal, but they don’t have any data for me. Where are y’all getting your numbers?

My portal was updated with the results about 1-2 hours after I got the text.

34 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Are other countries having issues getting people to get the damn shot or is this an American phenomenon?

 

If you take out like 9 dumbass states, the U.S. is actually doing remarkable in terms of fully vaccinated adults/children above 12.  

Our issue is that we're having a stupid contest in the American South and apparently Texas is playing host.  

 

So long as we stay ahead of Romania. Really, that’s my low bar for success in America these days: “still slightly better than Romania.”

55 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, I got my cloud drawn on Saturday, just got a text of my result (no precious infection, yes on antibodies from my vaccine), but no number. I signed into the CPL portal, but they don’t have any data for me. Where are y’all getting your numbers?

Call them. I had the same thing happen to me and they had some of my info entered wrong, causing it to not pull up my results. They reset it while I was on the phone and it worked when I logged back in. 

14 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

 

Seems like that graph leaves out a lot of countries. 

59 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Are other countries having issues getting people to get the damn shot or is this an American phenomenon?

Unfortunately there are plenty of other countries where people are hesitant.  A couple of studies:

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/2/160

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/1/42

 

55 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It would be tough to measure that because we also awash in extra doses that are going unused (I think 15mm at last count).  it's one thing to avoid the vaccine because not enough people in your nation have gotten it yet and you are unsure.  But we've distributed hundreds of millions of doses and 9 people have died from but we're still like, "Meh, let's see how things shake out in Andorra before I put that needle in my arm."  

If Aggies and other ignorant subsets of the population are dying of the virus despite a chance to be vaccinated, I fail to see what the problem is.  We're clearing the Dumb American South like a fucking wildfire right now and I'm pissing myself laughing.  

I largely agree with this, but it becomes an everyone problem when your healthcare system is stretched to its limit and anyone seeking care will have a harder time receiving care for all the other problems normally present.  

55 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Uh huh. Sounds great. How exactly are we going to get the horse dewormer eaters to get a shot?

 

I think a good start would be to communicate quality information and avoid the perception that you are always trying to spin the audience.  Too much of the messaging from the public health officials and the media has been overly negative, an attempt to boost ratings/clicks, or contained half truths.  As a result a lot of credibility has been lost.  There will always be a subset of the population that is not going to get it no matter what, but I do think there is a decent number of people that are genuinely confused and don't know who or what to believe.  If we stopped treating people like children, presented higher quality information that would help people understand the risks of the vaccine versus the risks of getting COVID, and have recommendations that are more grounded in science, it might help bump our numbers up.    

Take the ivermectin debate.....there is no concrete evidence that it is working.  We do have really good evidence that monoclonal antibody therapy can reduce the risk of severe disease.  It would probably score more credibility points by highlighting this fact and encouraging newly diagnosed people to seek out monoclonal antibody therapy instead of ivermectin.  Instead there have been a lot of people in prominent positions making fun of people with the horse dewormer argument, even going so far as to falsely report the number of people being hospitalized with negative side effects.  This cannot be helping!

And going back to the vaccine, imagine if you are someone who is completely uneducated on this stuff.  We have a very polarized echo chamber that is just screaming at each other.  One on side you have a politically driven media and public health system that is screaming GET VACCINATED, and then on social media you hear all about these horrible side effects.  There has been no widespread informational campaign to explain why the side effects they see on social media are probably not caused by the vaccine, and help understand the true risks of vaccination versus getting COVID.  Dr. Derek Lowe gave a great explanation on these false side effects.  Unfortunately his blog has been overhauled and the link to the post isn't working.  I'll quote the relevant section here:  

Quote

Specifically, if you take 10 million people and just wave your hand back and forth over
their upper arms, in the next two months you would expect to see about 4,000 heart
attacks. About 4,000 strokes. Over 9,000 new diagnoses of cancer. And about 14,000 of
that ten million will die, out of usual all-causes mortality. No one would notice. That’s
how many people die and get sick anyway.

But if you took those ten million people and gave them a new vaccine instead, there’s a
real danger that those heart attacks, cancer diagnoses, and deaths will be attributed to
the vaccine. I mean, if you reach a large enough population, you are literally going to
have cases where someone gets the vaccine and drops dead the next day (just as they
would have if they *didn’t* get the vaccine). It could prove difficult to convince that
person’s friends and relatives of that lack of connection, though. Post hoc ergo propter
hoc is one of the most powerful fallacies of human logic, and we’re not going to get rid
of it any time soon. Especially when it comes to vaccines.

This is incredibly convincing, and yet nothing like this has been explained to the masses in any clear manner.  

Unfortunately, our society has become so polarized and the echo chambers so loud that our messaging will become less and less effective, but we've done nothing to help it.  

Bill Maher gave a great rant that captured my feelings well:

   

Edited September 7, 2021 by Dontshootrude

Any update on approval for under 12?  We were hanging our hopes on end of September, based on an update from months ago.  I haven’t seen any updated timeline, but I’m also not as plugged in as others. 

@Dontshootrude I have already gotten dangerously close to replying with what would be appropriate in CR and frowned upon here.

I appreciate your efforts to educate the vaccine reluctant. That's great. It's not going to work on the vaccine violent. Or how else do I call ones in denial on their deathbed? 

Maybe you're new around here. We are an aggressively stupid world. People would rather shit out their guts than admit they were wrong.

3 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Any update on approval for under 12?  We were hanging our hopes on end of September, based on an update from months ago.  I haven’t seen any updated timeline, but I’m also not as plugged in as others. 

Didnt someone on here postulate or hear a few weeks ago that under 12 wont be until Q1 of next year?

5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

@Dontshootrude I have already gotten dangerously close to replying with what would be appropriate in CR and frowned upon here.

I appreciate your efforts to educate the vaccine reluctant. That's great. It's not going to work on the vaccine violent. Or how else do I call ones in denial on their deathbed? 

Maybe you're new around here. We are an aggressively stupid world. People would rather shit out their guts than admit they were wrong.

Ultimately the "vaccine violent" (great term!) are all going to get it and develop immunity via the high risk route.  Eventually this will end, and COVID won't be a danger to our healthcare system.  It is what it is.  I'm not really concerned about these people on an individual level, particularly once the danger to our overall healthcare system has passed.  It is a classic example of "play stupid games win stupid prizes."   

Edited September 7, 2021 by Dontshootrude

BCOM/BS&W, UTSys Med Centers, and Ascension-Seton all informally indicate they expect first shot deployment in December.  Barring some unforeseen circumstance.  You know like stupid Texas parents being stupid Texas parents.  We'll find a way to fuck this up, don't worry.  

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

BCOM/BS&W, UTSys Med Centers, and Ascension-Seton all informally indicate they expect first shot deployment in December.  Barring some unforeseen circumstance.  You know like stupid Texas parents being stupid Texas parents.  We'll find a way to fuck this up, don't worry.  

I anticipate the vaccination rates in young kids will be remarkably low unfortunately.  Check out the rates in the 12-18 age group.....it is depressing.  

3rd shot today. Still alive. 

11 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Any update on approval for under 12?  We were hanging our hopes on end of September, based on an update from months ago.  I haven’t seen any updated timeline, but I’m also not as plugged in as others. 

Not sure where your September date came from, but I've been hearing December from my kids' pediatrician since May or June.

Last shot 2/22, level is 325. Not at or above 350, but doesn’t seem terrible. Don’t feel like I need to rush down and get a booster?

1 hour ago, Satoshi said:

 

Those numbers are potentially misleading given the different average ages of the populations. It would make more sense to divide by the vaccine eligible population than total population.

Good point, I think about 75% of the total US population is vax eligibile (I could be wrong).

2 hours ago, Dontshootrude said:

That is up there for the most aggy thing I've heard in a while. 

Hold my  beer sheep.

2 hours ago, Dontshootrude said:

She should be stripped of her degree.  That is up there for the most aggy thing I've heard in a while. 

Agreed.  

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I have a cousin who is a Princeton PhD molecular biologist….she has called most events in the pandemic accurately all the way through, including timing of expected case spikes etc. She strongly urged all of us to get an mRNA vaccine as soon as we could.

Yeah, Princeton smarter than aggy. Shocker.

No doubt about that one. 

2 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

You know, part of me feels "fuck around/find out", but that is so fucked.  The parents probably blindly believed their daughter was smart about such matters.  And paid with their lives.

Her parents were way north of 70, good friends of my mom and dad.  Simple cotton farmers who absolutely listened to a daughter they reasonably thought would know what she was talking about.   If she or her Bama trumper husband had died, I would definitely respond with "fuck around/find out".  Her parents' deaths break my heart though.  And this shit is going on all over the country with elderly folks listening to their dumbass kids.

37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Last shot 2/22, level is 325. Not at or above 350, but doesn’t seem terrible. Don’t feel like I need to rush down and get a booster?

I think the 350 number was a joke, but not positive (see what I did there). What we would all like to know is the correlation between the antibody count and severity of illness.

I think the 350 number was a joke, but not positive (see what I did there). What we would all like to know is the correlation between the antibody count and severity of illness.

I thought the tree fiddy joke came AFTER that number was suggested, but what do I know? I’m just an unfrozen caveman.

7 hours ago, orange dream said:

I appreciate the info, but after a couple of times through the linked document I haven't been able to decipher what the indexed score scale is.  Can you break it down for me?

I don't think that there is a lot of information to glean other than COI>1.0 is reactive (positive for ABs) or COI <1.0 (negative for ABs).  If at least 14 days post infection, the tests appears to be very sensitive to COV2 nueclocapsid antibodies and fairly specific from other infections.  Not sure that there is anything to read into the magnitude of the number reliably.    

nm

Edited September 7, 2021 by Pods

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Last shot 2/22, level is 325. Not at or above 350, but doesn’t seem terrible. Don’t feel like I need to rush down and get a booster?

Nah just head over to Tractor Supply and load up on some de-wormer.  You're good.

49 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I think the 350 number was a joke, but not positive (see what I did there). What we would all like to know is the correlation between the antibody count and severity of illness.

 

45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I thought the tree fiddy joke came AFTER that number was suggested, but what do I know? I’m just an unfrozen caveman.

The 350 number WAS a joke.  I believe that antibody scores at the 2 week mark after second dose generally are >2500 (off scale), at least based on the Texas CARES test I got last week.  If that's the number that's being used as fully vaccinated/loaded with antibodies, then it would logically follow that 1250 or so is roughly 50 percent drop off in antibodies.  That doesn't mean that at that number your risk of infection has increased proportionately, but it's at least a guideline on the amount of antibodies there are in your system versus back when the shots were given.

I have yet to see any literature discussing at what point (antibody score) there is an increase in risk of infection.  That certainly would be helpful in evaluating when one might wish to seek out a booster.

Edited September 7, 2021 by DDD Dad

I bet there's been a few hundred, if not a few thousand instances in this country the last few months of vulnerable parents/grandparents who've asked their children/grandchildren for advice on the vaccine.  And those younger generations have stood to gain something through inheritance and responded like "Dad/Paw-Paw...you don't need to get the vaccine.  It's like they've been saying on the TV...it's an infringement of your freedoms.  It barely effects people.  It's like the flu.  I wouldn't bother with the shot.  Also, have you considered putting your IRA into all cash to avoid the volatility in the markets right now?"  

Also, if an Aggie can convince their entire family not to get vaccinated and take all of them and herself off this planet...even better.  

Why are we wringing our hands about people, who are eligible, who refuse the vaccine getting Covid-19 and dying?  I guess it sucks they took up a hospital bed but we're burning through tens of thousands of "Americans" that we don't want in our nation anyway.  This virus was tragic for long enough.  Now, it's doing us a fucking favor. 

You know the old saying, "What do you call 12 unvaccinated Aggies on top of a pile of logs?"  

A good start.  

Jesus Lobo. 

1 hour ago, Samson&#x27;s Wig said:

Agreed.  

No doubt about that one. 

Her parents were way north of 70, good friends of my mom and dad.  Simple cotton farmers who absolutely listened to a daughter they reasonably thought would know what she was talking about.   If she or her Bama trumper husband had died, I would definitely respond with "fuck around/find out".  Her parents' deaths break my heart though.  And this shit is going on all over the country with elderly folks listening to their dumbass kids.

Terrible.

On a related note, I just confirmed today what I had suspected for quite some time, that one of my brothers, who lives in Atlanta and has Fox News on his TV 24/7, is unvaccinated.  Shocker.  He claims he is immune because he got COVID last year.  I have my doubts that's the case; I imagine he simply thinks he got it.  He's 58 and in excellent health, but that's certainly no guarantee of a good outcome.  To say I'm pissed that he has been visiting my mom (retired nurse, vaccinated and extremely cautious about the virus) several times over the last 8 months would be an understatement.

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I bet there's been a few hundred, if not a few thousand instances in this country the last few months of vulnerable parents/grandparents who've asked their children/grandchildren for advice on the vaccine.  And those younger generations have stood to gain something through inheritance and responded like "Dad/Paw-Paw...you don't need to get the vaccine.  It's like they've been saying on the TV...it's an infringement of your freedoms.  It barely effects people.  It's like the flu.  I wouldn't bother with the shot.  Also, have you considered putting your IRA into all cash to avoid the volatility in the markets right now?"  

Also, if an Aggie can convince their entire family not to get vaccinated and take all of them and herself off this planet...even better.  

Why are we wringing our hands about people, who are eligible, who refuse the vaccine getting Covid-19 and dying?  I guess it sucks they took up a hospital bed but we're burning through tens of thousands of "Americans" that we don't want in our nation anyway.  This virus was tragic for long enough.  Now, it's doing us a fucking favor. 

You know the old saying, "What do you call 12 unvaccinated Aggies on top of a pile of logs?"  

A good start.  

 

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Jesus Lobo. 

1234

8 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I bet there's been a few hundred, if not a few thousand instances in this country the last few months of vulnerable parents/grandparents who've asked their children/grandchildren for advice on the vaccine.  And those younger generations have stood to gain something through inheritance and responded like "Dad/Paw-Paw...you don't need to get the vaccine.  It's like they've been saying on the TV...it's an infringement of your freedoms.  It barely effects people.  It's like the flu.  I wouldn't bother with the shot.  Also, have you considered putting your IRA into all cash to avoid the volatility in the markets right now?"  

Also, if an Aggie can convince their entire family not to get vaccinated and take all of them and herself off this planet...even better.  

Why are we wringing our hands about people, who are eligible, who refuse the vaccine getting Covid-19 and dying?  I guess it sucks they took up a hospital bed but we're burning through tens of thousands of "Americans" that we don't want in our nation anyway.  This virus was tragic for long enough.  Now, it's doing us a fucking favor. 

You know the old saying, "What do you call 12 unvaccinated Aggies on top of a pile of logs?"  

A good start.  

10 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

 

The 350 number WAS a joke.  I believe that antibody scores at the 2 week mark after second dose generally are >2500 (off scale), at least based on the Texas CARES test I got last week.  If that's the number that's being used as fully vaccinated/loaded with antibodies, then it would logically follow that 1250 or so is roughly 50 percent drop off in antibodies.  That doesn't mean that at that number your risk of infection has increased proportionately, but it's at least a guideline on the amount of antibodies there are in your system versus back when the shots were given.

I have yet to see any literature discussing at what point (antibody score) there is an increase in risk of infection.  That certainly would be helpful in evaluating when one might wish to seek out a booster.

Somewhere much eariler in this thread I posted my discussion with my MD about antibody numbers.  She said there are two tests - one that goes to 250 and another much more expensive one where they take the 250 peoples sample and divide it in such a way that they can effectively test up to 10x (2500).  Their practice only does the 250 one because no one knows what number is “sufficient” but for a lot of other diseases that are similar in nature a number as low as 8 means really strong immune response. Her SWAG was that over 250 was more than OK but she admitted it was just an educated guess at best. 

17 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I bet there's been a few hundred, if not a few thousand instances in this country the last few months of vulnerable parents/grandparents who've asked their children/grandchildren for advice on the vaccine.  And those younger generations have stood to gain something through inheritance and responded like "Dad/Paw-Paw...you don't need to get the vaccine.  It's like they've been saying on the TV...it's an infringement of your freedoms.  It barely effects people.  It's like the flu.  I wouldn't bother with the shot.  Also, have you considered putting your IRA into all cash to avoid the volatility in the markets right now?"  

Also, if an Aggie can convince their entire family not to get vaccinated and take all of them and herself off this planet...even better.  

Why are we wringing our hands about people, who are eligible, who refuse the vaccine getting Covid-19 and dying?  I guess it sucks they took up a hospital bed but we're burning through tens of thousands of "Americans" that we don't want in our nation anyway.  This virus was tragic for long enough.  Now, it's doing us a fucking favor. 

You know the old saying, "What do you call 12 unvaccinated Aggies on top of a pile of logs?"  

A good start.  

12 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Terrible.

On a related note, I just confirmed today what I had suspected for quite some time, that one of my brothers, who lives in Atlanta and has Fox News on his TV 24/7, is unvaccinated.  Shocker.  He claims he is immune because he got COVID last year.  I have my doubts that's the case; I imagine he simply thinks he got it.  He's 58 and in excellent health, but that's certainly no guarantee of a good outcome.  To say I'm pissed that he has been visiting my mom (retired nurse, vaccinated and extremely cautious about the virus) several times over the last 8 months would be an understatement.

Damn.  Does your mom know he's not vaccinated?

Just now, Samson&#x27;s Wig said:

Damn.  Does your mom know he's not vaccinated?

She does now.  My two other brothers are livid.  I literally just found out about this an hour ago.  Will be talking to mom when I leave the office.

4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

She does now.  My two other brothers are livid.  I literally just found out about this an hour ago.  Will be talking to mom when I leave the office.

I don't know how things work in your family, but in my opinion a brother is never too old for an ass whipping when he gets out of line.

30 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Jesus Lobo. 

Sorry. Too soon? 

We care about Texans dying who had a way out but not about people in other countries with no vaccine option?  Got it.  

If unvaxxed Aggies wanna take out the family tree on their way outta Dodge.  Fuck 'em.   

Texas outta ICU beds.

I'm outta patience.  

Aggie outta logic.  

Jesus outta sympathy. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Lobo

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I thought the tree fiddy joke came AFTER that number was suggested, but what do I know? I’m just an unfrozen caveman.

I pointed out that it might be a joke after looking high and low for some sort of correlation between A/B number and protection.  I was about to ask for someone to serve up a link to support the 350 number and it dawned on me and I started shaking my head.  Late last week, the person who apparently first posted it said it was a joke.  Well played, to be sure.

Edited September 7, 2021 by dcbc