COVID-19 vaccine discussion

24 minutes ago, midtown said:

And based on the story I read this look like they can produce a shit ton fast hence producing a billion doses.  

It will be interesting to see the efficacy. Would you rather go get one shot at 75% efficacy or two shots at 95%? Where is the line? I think if it's 85% or higher I probably pull the trigger on the J&J one if I had the choice. 

This has a huge chance of being a game changer.  One dose and done.  Get EUA and get to jabbing.

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7 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

It will be interesting to see the efficacy. Would you rather go get one shot at 75% efficacy or two shots at 95%? Where is the line? I think if it's 85% or higher I probably pull the trigger on the J&J one if I had the choice. 

As long as data also shows it also essentially negates the risk of any serious illness, I would jump all over a J&J at 75% instead of holding out for Pfizer.

17 minutes ago, Skipper said:

As long as data also shows it also essentially negates the risk of any serious illness, I would jump all over a J&J at 75% instead of holding out for Pfizer.

Yep. If nothing else, it’s more supply in the pipeline.

1 hour ago, LurkingHorn said:

It will be interesting to see the efficacy. Would you rather go get one shot at 75% efficacy or two shots at 95%? Where is the line? I think if it's 85% or higher I probably pull the trigger on the J&J one if I had the choice. 

If the 1 shot can be given at a higher rate, the population as a whole is better with the 75%. Pursue both. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by UT_OB1

12 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

If the 1 shot can be given at a higher rate, the population as a whole is better with the 75%. Pursue both. 

I'm just talking about from a personal standpoint. Totally agree on pushing it to the population as a whole. 

apparently at delco center in austin they are giving vax(moderna) to any and all right now.  people in line.

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

apparently at delco center in austin they are giving vax(moderna) to any and all right now.  people in line.

Don’t think we could make it down there. Thanks though.

3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

apparently at delco center in austin they are giving vax(moderna) to any and all right now.  people in line.

WTF? Why? How is one supposed to find this out?

1 minute ago, XYZ said:

WTF? Why? How is one supposed to find this out?

Surly

4 minutes ago, XYZ said:

WTF? Why? How is one supposed to find this out?

Wanna hear some bullshit? My grandmother in assisted living got vaccine last Tuesday.  Started feeling sick over weekend and got tested and confirmed Covid positive today.  Apparently quite a few residents tested positive.  There is speculation the vaccination gathering ended up being a damn super spreader event in the facility (that is at least what the Dr. treating them speculated but I don't know if he's just guessing or has knowledge it was a shitty setup).   Regardless if it was that or something else, talk about some shit luck.  She's supposedly feeling better today but preventatively being hospitalized.  Just ridiculous to get it right after vaccination after locking down for so long.

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Wanna hear some bullshit? My grandmother in assisted living got vaccine last Tuesday.  Started feeling sick over weekend and got tested and confirmed Covid positive today.  Apparently quite a few residents tested positive.  There is speculation the vaccination gathering ended up being a damn super spreader event in the facility (that is at least what the Dr. treating them speculated but I don't know if he's just guessing or has knowledge it was a shitty setup).   Regardless if it was that or something else, talk about some shit luck.  She's supposedly feeling better today but preventatively being hospitalized.  Just ridiculous to get it right after vaccination after locking down for so long.

That sucks.  Hopefully the vaccine gave her a bit of a head start on antibody production and she can fight it off. 

Any idea if Delco will be doing the same tomorrow?

33 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Don’t think we could make it down there. Thanks though.

they are doing 1B(but seem to be any at this point) and saying they are doing it at the same place tomorrow.  just FYI.  

Got my dose at Delco thanks to you assholes. Heard 2-7 tomorrow.

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Just now, vicerous said:

Got my dose at Delco thanks to you assholes. Heard 2-7 tomorrow.

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you will be getting Microsoft updates shortly...

Checking for an aunt...is it drive up or stand in line? She has bad knees and would have trouble with a long line.

23 minutes ago, vicerous said:

Got my dose at Delco thanks to you assholes. Heard 2-7 tomorrow.

Did they say who was giving it out?  Austin Public Health?  DSHS? A local hospital?  Guys in a white van?

I'm surprised that someone can just do a pop-up no announcement everyone included clinic.  Only a few Travis Co places have that kind of vax.

55 minutes ago, XYZ said:

WTF? Why? How is one supposed to find this out?

Haha.

yeah can only laugh.

This time in 2020, would not have had bet Pfizer/moderna would be the names behind the hottest pop-up in austin in 2021

4 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Did they say who was giving it out?  Austin Public Health?  DSHS? A local hospital?  Guys in a white van?

I'm surprised that someone can just do a pop-up no announcement everyone included clinic.  Only a few Travis Co places have that kind of vax.

I'll bet APH. 

48 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

they are doing 1B(but seem to be any at this point) and saying they are doing it at the same place tomorrow.  just FYI.  

How did you learn about Delco, and the time of 2-7 tomorrow?

15 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

Checking for an aunt...is it drive up or stand in line? She has bad knees and would have trouble with a long line.

stand in line.  ask for or bring a wheelchair and I think you can get to the front of the line.  If she's 1B will likely be no problem. St David's people are running it along with first responders.  Id get there early tomorrow. the word seems to be out.   someone above said 2-7PM but I don't know.

Just now, Dbeasy said:

How did you learn about Delco, and the time of 2-7 tomorrow?

I didn't hear the time for tomorrow just heard it was open tomorrow also.  co-worker told me.

BTW, I went with wife because she qualifies for existing condition.  I didn't get it because I want to make sure the right people get it first.  If you are over 65 I would just show up tomorrow.

6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

stand in line.  ask for or bring a wheelchair and I think you can get to the front of the line.  If she's 1B will likely be no problem. St David's people are running it along with first responders.  Id get there early tomorrow. the word seems to be out.   someone above said 2-7PM but I don't know.

St Davids had 3225 in stock out of 4450 doses they had received as of a few days ago.  They were the only place in town with more than 1000 shots in stock other than maybe the DSHS warehouse.  Sounds like maybe they are trying to give it out.

 

17 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Did they say who was giving it out?  Austin Public Health?  DSHS? A local hospital?  Guys in a white van?

I'm surprised that someone can just do a pop-up no announcement everyone included clinic.  Only a few Travis Co places have that kind of vax.

I think APH was the primary there - there were people answering questions in line while we waited about 45 minutes. Lots of stations inside with APD/AFD & other orgs assisting/giving vaccines. I overheard an APH (I think) supervisor saying tomorrow was scheduled from 2-7 with an appointment required. No idea if they're actually going to turn anyone away - nobody was asking about appointments or pre-conditions tonight. 

 

Just now, Texas Jeff said:

St Davids had 3225 in stock out of 4450 doses they had received as of a few days ago.  They were the only place in town with more than 1000 shots in stock other than maybe the DSHS warehouse.  Sounds like maybe they are trying to give it out.

 

yeah I don't know how long it lasts once they get it.  They had lot numbers on a card they gave you.  maybe they have more showing up.  between people that want to wait and the non 1Bers maybe there isn't enough people coming in.  the line wrapped around the building but at 6 foot distance it's not that many.  It was pretty efficient took about 1.5 hours

I'm just happy we have this thing and how fast we got it.  Its pretty much a miracle of science and a lot of hard work long hours by folks.  the roll out was never going to be perfect but if we've hit nursing homes and key healthcare IMO anyone under 65 can wait a bit unless the existing condition is bad.

we'll get there and I think it will be sooner rather than later.  some thought we wouldn't have a vax for at least 2 years when this started.

9 minutes ago, vicerous said:

I think APH was the primary there - there were people answering questions in line while we waited about 45 minutes. Lots of stations inside with APD/AFD & other orgs assisting/giving vaccines. I overheard an APH (I think) supervisor saying tomorrow was scheduled from 2-7 with an appointment required. No idea if they're actually going to turn anyone away - nobody was asking about appointments or pre-conditions tonight. 

 

they didn't have a computer anywhere that could check appointments.

Shit, some thought that there wouldn’t be a vaccine period, what with there not being vaccines against coronaviruses and all.

Put me in the we've never created a vaccine to a corona virus camp.

APH Pre-Registration site is live 

https://covid19.austintexas.gov/s/?language=en_US

Got my first vaccine yesterday here in the KC area. Arm hurts a little but no other side effects so far. 

Bad news on JNJ.  Nothing regarding efficacy (numbers won't be known for a couple of weeks) but according to a NYT article I stumbled across, apparently they have had significant production delays.  JNJ won't release any specifics but doesn't sounds like they will have production capacity to materially contribute (i.e., over 10MM doses) available until March.  Possibly only 3 or 4MM ready in February if authorized.  I haven't seen anything new regarding increased capacity for Pfizer/Moderna, but I guess the upside is this is giving the state/local authorities plenty of time to figure out how to ramp up last leg of vaccination.   If somewhere around 4/1 is the magic date where there is a shitload of supply, we better be in a position to get lots of needles in arms.   

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I guess the upside is this is giving the state/local authorities plenty of time to figure out how to ramp up last leg of vaccination. 

 

Here is the NYT article Skipper references:

Spoiler

ohnson & Johnson Expects Vaccine Results Soon but Lags in Production

The U.S. needs J.&J.’s one-shot vaccine more than ever. But the company is behind on manufacturing promises made in its Operation Warp Speed contract.

13

A dose of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine candidate at the Rocky Mountain Regional V.A. Medical Center in Aurora, Colo., last month.Credit...Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

By Carl Zimmer, Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland

Jan. 13, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET

Johnson & Johnson expects to release critical results from its Covid-19 vaccine trial in as little as two weeks — a potential boon in the effort to protect Americans from the coronavirus — but most likely won’t be able to provide as many doses this spring as it promised the federal government because of unanticipated manufacturing delays.

If the vaccine can strongly protect people against Covid-19, as some outside scientists expect, it would offer big advantages over the two vaccines authorized in the United States. Unlike those products, which require two doses, Johnson & Johnson’s could need just one, greatly simplifying logistics for local health departments and clinics struggling to get shots in arms. What’s more, its vaccine can stay stable in a refrigerator for months, whereas the others have to be frozen.

But the encouraging prospect of a third effective vaccine is tempered by apparent lags in the company’s production. In the company’s $1 billion contract signed with the federal government in August, Johnson & Johnson pledged to have 12 million doses of its vaccine ready by the end of February, ramping up to a total of 100 million doses by the end of June.

Federal officials have been told that the company has fallen as much as two months behind the original production schedule and won’t catch up until the end of April, when it was supposed to have delivered more than 60 million doses, according to two people familiar with the situation who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Carlo de Notaristefani, lead manufacturing adviser for Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine development program, acknowledged a delay, but said the company might be able to catch up with initial production goals by March.

“I agree there was a problem,” Dr. de Notaristefani said. But he added, “Manufacturing of pharmaceuticals is not a black box where you turn the key and start counting.”

Refer someone to The Times.

They’ll enjoy our special rate of $1 a week.

Any delay could be critical because the federal government has secured only enough vaccine doses to inoculate 200 million of the roughly 260 million eligible adults in the first half of this year. With the nation in the grip of its largest surge of the coronavirus to date and the death toll escalating to as high as 4,000 a day, Americans desperate to be vaccinated are lining the sidewalks outside vaccination centers.

Fears about the virus have only escalated with the scientific discovery last month that the country has been seeded with a new, highly contagious variant. On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced it would no longer hold back vaccine stocks for second doses in order to get more people at least partly vaccinated more quickly.

Dr. Paul Stoffels, Johnson & Johnson’s chief scientific officer, said he expected to see clinical trial data showing whether his company’s vaccine is safe and effective in late January or early February. But he declined to provide details about the company’s production capacity.

“We are not ready to release the numbers month by month at the moment, as we are in the discussion with the F.D.A.,” he said.

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If the data is positive and the Food and Drug Administration authorizes the vaccine for emergency use, he added, “hopefully somewhere in March we’ll be able to contribute” to the nation’s vaccination drive.

That Johnson & Johnson’s timetable has slipped is not unusual given the frantic pace of vaccine development amid the worst pandemic in a century. But the delay also highlights the unrealistic promises of Operation Warp Speed.

The premise of the program was that the federal government would front the costs of development and manufacturing so that vaccine makers could mass-produce doses even before the vaccines were proved to work. Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser for Warp Speed, said in December that Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine would be a “game changer” in the pandemic.

Image

Dr. Paul Stoffels, Johnson & Johnson’s chief scientific officer, during a White House meeting of the coronavirus task force in September.Credit...Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

But at a Tuesday news conference, Dr. Slaoui said that instead of 12 million doses envisioned in the contract by the end of February, the company was likely to have in the “single-digit” millions. He also said the company was “trying to make that number get as close to a double-digit number as possible, and then a larger number in March and a much larger number in April.” Another person familiar with the company’s progress said it was poised to deliver only perhaps three million or four million doses of its vaccine by the end of next month.

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In a statement, a Johnson & Johnson spokesman said, “We are confident we can meet our contractual obligations to supply our vaccine candidate to the U.S. government.”

Dr. de Notaristefani, Operation Warp Speed’s manufacturing chief, said the government’s contracts with vaccine makers were written at a time of great uncertainty, with the understanding that unforeseen obstacles could throw off the timetables. “Numbers are never cast in stone when you start a new process,” he said, adding that the company had to transfer its manufacturing from the Netherlands to a plant in Baltimore. “I really think that technically they couldn’t do it earlier.”

Dr. Marcus Plescia, the chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said that state health officials were clearly excited about Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine.

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“You can get it and you’re done,” he said. “Everybody is eager to have it out there. It has a lot of potential.”

But even if Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine pans out, Dr. Plescia said, it won’t be enough. He predicted that state health departments would need a total of four vaccines in the next six months if they hope to reach their goals of offering a vaccine to every American who wants one.

“Or else the public is going to get very frustrated, because they’re ready for it to be opened up and there isn’t adequate supply to do that,” Dr. Plescia said.

Johnson & Johnson is by no means alone in its manufacturing delays. Dr. Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s chief executive, told investors last fall that his company had agreed to deliver 40 million doses of its vaccine to the federal government in 2020, assuming it proved successful in clinical trials. In the end, the company had only half that many ready to ship.

No one — including company executives — knows whether Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine will work. But Lynda Coughlin, a virologist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine who is not involved in the trial, said that the design of the vaccine and the results from early trials made her optimistic.

“Hopefully the results from Johnson & Johnson are just really going to knock it out of the park,” she said.

Johnson & Johnson’s Covid vaccine is fundamentally different from the authorized vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech. Those two consist of genetic molecules encased in oily bubbles. Johnson & Johnson built its vaccine from a virus that causes common colds, known as an adenovirus.

Testing the vaccine on monkeys, the researchers found that a single shot was enough to protect the animals from infection. When they tried out different formulations of the vaccine in early clinical trials, they were pleased to see that the vaccine prompted a strong antibody response with a single dose.

As results of the early clinical trials emerged over the summer, the company had to make a high-stakes decision: proceed with a clinical trial of two doses, which had the most likelihood of success, or try one with a single dose, which would be far more useful for getting shots to the masses — if it worked. The company decided to roll the dice with a single-shot trial.

“We know from vaccination campaigns that the simpler the logistics, the more successful the program,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center who pioneered adenovirus vaccines in the early 2000s and collaborated with Johnson & Johnson researchers on the trial.

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If many people began developing immunity from a single-shot dose, it might become harder for the virus to move from person to person, bringing down the high rates of new cases and easing the burden of the pandemic.

“A vaccine that is one dose would have a tremendous, tremendous public health impact, of course for low-income countries, but also in high-income countries,” said Ruth Faden, a professor of biomedical ethics at Johns Hopkins University.

While other vaccine developers moved quickly into late-stage trials, Johnson & Johnson deliberately moved more slowly so it could focus on ramping up manufacturing of its vaccine. At a facility in the Netherlands, researchers grew cells in which their adenoviruses could multiply. Adjusting the chemistry in giant vats, the scientists found a recipe for producing the vaccine at a fast, reliable rate.

Johnson & Johnson also began working early with other companies to prepare to manufacture the vaccine across the world. In April, it announced a partnership with the Maryland-based Emergent BioSolutions to manufacture the vaccine for the United States. Researchers from Johnson & Johnson began visiting Emergent BioSolutions starting that month to help it prepare for producing the adenoviruses.

“It was much more than a paper exercise: ‘Here’s the recipe, follow this,’” said Remo Colarusso, vice president at Janssen Supply Chain. “This is complex manufacturing.”

Image

A Phase 3 trial location of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine candidate in National City, Calif., in October.Credit...Mike Blake/Reuters

By the fall, Emergent BioSolutions was growing cells that were spewing out new adenoviruses. When Johnson & Johnson announced the start of its final Phase 3 trial, executives began making aggressive projections. “We are now committed to make more than one billion doses during 2021, and more after that,” Dr. Stoffels said at a September news conference.

The company then secured more deals to provide the vaccine to countries around the world. In 2021, Johnson & Johnson has promised to supply 200 million doses to Covax, an international partnership seeking to distribute coronavirus vaccines to nations that would not otherwise be able to afford them. It will supply another 300 million to Covax in 2022.

Soon after Johnson & Johnson started its trial, cases surged around the world. All the Phase 3 clinical trials of Covid vaccines accelerated because trials end only after a specified number of volunteers — from both the placebo and vaccinated groups — get sick. In November, the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccine trials both delivered impressive results, with efficacy rates around 95 percent.

The F.D.A. authorized both vaccines for the United States, and other countries soon followed suit. But these two vaccines had some major shortcomings that soon became impossible to ignore. Both vaccines have to be kept in a deep freeze to prevent them from degrading. Once they reach a hospital or clinic, they have to be used before they spoil. In New York City and elsewhere, unused vaccines have ended up in the trash.

Once data collection is complete at the end of January or early February, an advisory board will review the data and report its analysis on safety and efficacy to Johnson & Johnson. F.D.A. regulators are already evaluating manufacturing data weeks ahead of when Johnson & Johnson is expected to apply for emergency authorization. Hiccups as small as mold in part of a facility could spur further delays.

Katie Thomas contributed reporting.

 

Austin Public Health now has an active link to register for the vaccine.  I filled it out and some of the questions they ask: race, income, how many in your household, etc kind of stick to the narrative that the city wants to vaccinate "less served" communities first. 

https://covid19.austintexas.gov/s/?language=en_US

Maybe yall found this awhile ago, but I couldn't find it at all yesterday.

 

3 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Arm hurts a little but no other side effects so far. 

That wasn't from the shot.

36 minutes ago, bigbevo76 said:

Austin Public Health now has an active link to register for the vaccine.  I filled it out and some of the questions they ask: race, income, how many in your household, etc kind of stick to the narrative that the city wants to vaccinate "less served" communities first. 

https://covid19.austintexas.gov/s/?language=en_US

Maybe yall found this awhile ago, but I couldn't find it at all yesterday.

 

I registered there and it just recommended that I get “tested”.

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I registered there and it just recommended that I get “tested”.

Brat, I don't know your situation, or where you are located, but I would just head to the Delco center today and get in line.  even if they start stopping younger folks they will probably let you get it even if you don't have an appointment

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

Brat, I don't know your situation, or where you are located, but I would just head to the Delco center today and get in line.  even if they start stopping younger folks they will probably let you get it even if you don't have an appointment

Yea, he won't have to wait in line either. Just walk extra slow.

I registered at the Austin Public Health site even though I am not 1B.  I am not expecting an appointment for months.  I thought it was good to just raise my hand and say I would like it, so that they can get some numbers showing where the demand is and be organized if they receive more vaccine.  This is something that they could have done months ago but at least it is in place now.

I am OK if they somewhat steer the vaccine, for a while, so long as they are sticking to the 1B guidelines and they are trying to find people that live in this area.  They should ensure distribution across all areas of the region, all economic conditions, etc.  Spread it around.  Too much targeting will become unfair and inefficient.

Most importantly, they should get the vaccine into willing arms as fast as possible.  The bottleneck should be elsewhere.

We are going to wait and get it when it is available here in 78717.

Our neighborhood mailing address is Austin, but we are in Brushy Creek, an unincorporated area of Wilco.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Armybrat

17 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

We are going to wait and get it when it is available here in 78717.

Our neighborhood mailing address is Austin, but we are in Brushy Creek, an unincorporated area of Wilco.

Armybrat, it's for the entire region ... so you should feel included.  APH is receiving most of the vaccine for the entire region, at least this week.  They are the "hub" for Central Texas.

56 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I registered there and it just recommended that I get “tested”.

They assumed that if you've lived for 200+ years, you are immortal anyway.

I had my 83 year old mom register this morning. After entering the screening info, it had a message that said "congrats, make an appointment to get your vaccine" and an email showed up as well.  after answering a few more questions it went to a site where you enter your location to find the nearest vaccine site. it had a google maps plug in. well it doesn't work. 

after being on hold with austin public health for 30 minutes we we're informed that part of the site has crashed so they took her number and said they would call her to schedule an appointment.

 

 

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

They assumed that if you've lived for 200+ years, you are immortal anyway.

true,, the death rate for 187 year olds is zero.

2 minutes ago, bigbevo76 said:

I had my 83 year old mom register this morning. After entering the screening info, it had a message that said "congrats, make an appointment to get your vaccine" and an email showed up as well.  after answering a few more questions it went to a site where you enter your location to find the nearest vaccine site. it had a google maps plug in. well it doesn't work. 

after being on hold with austin public health for 30 minutes we we're informed that part of the site has crashed so they took her number and said they would call her to schedule an appointment.

 

 

can anyone drive her to the Delco center?  worst case is they turn her away.  best case she gets the vaccine.

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

can anyone drive her to the Delco center?  worst case is they turn her away.  best case she gets the vaccine.

I can and probably will.