COVID-19 vaccine discussion

25 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

What is false about my interpretation of the data? It’s basically the same interpretation of the data in the column retweeted by Scott Gottlieb. 

The data point is real, but spurious and your interpretation false and disinformation when you spread it. 

The alpha variant originated in the UK in Nov 2020 and became the dominant strain by December 2020. After that point, almost everyone contracted the Alpha variant. The vast majority of UK infections have been alpha variant infections with very little possibility for any breakthroughs to occur. They have not been exposed to variants that can re-infect Alpha until now and they are seeing re-infections. 

By Dec 2020, only 1.8% of England had contracted Covid. Thus, some number close to 1.8% of the population could even theoretically be re-infected with a variant, because that's the amount that contracted the wild type strain. 1% being reinfected suggests a lot of them did. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020

We know anti-bodies to the wild type and variant strains confer extended immunity against that strain, so no one should expect to see alpha re-infect previous alpha patients. Beta was the dominant variant the UK was exposed to, but it doesn't seem to re-infect people. Gamma and Delta and all the ones to follow carrying the same mutations do and will continue to re-infect people without vaccines and boosters. 

9 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

What is your deal?  Do you get paid for divisiveness?  Stop being a cunt.

I guess I’m sort of a contrarian by nature.

Not sure how I’m being divisive though. I’m not sharing things from fringe websites. That’s an op ed from the WSJ that was shared by Scott Gottlieb.

18 minutes ago, Pods said:

The data point is real, but spurious and your interpretation false and disinformation when you spread it. 

The alpha variant originated in the UK in Nov 2020 and became the dominant strain by December 2020. After that point, almost everyone contracted the Alpha variant. The vast majority of UK infections have been alpha variant infections with very little possibility for any breakthroughs to occur. They have not been exposed to variants that can re-infect Alpha until now and they are seeing re-infections. 

By Dec 2020, only 1.8% of England had contracted Covid. Thus, some number close to 1.8% of the population could even theoretically be re-infected with a variant, because that's the amount that contracted the wild type strain. 1% being reinfected suggests a lot of them did. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020

We know anti-bodies to the wild type and variant strains confer extended immunity against that strain, so no one should expect to see alpha re-infect previous alpha patients. Beta was the dominant variant the UK was exposed to, but it doesn't seem to re-infect people. Gamma and Delta and all the ones to follow carrying the same mutations do and will continue to re-infect people without vaccines and boosters. 

The dataset I linked runs through July 17th which includes the last delta wave in Uk. So it would appear that previous infection provides protection against Delta. 
 

There’s also the data out of Israel and the latest delta wave that tends to suggest the same.  
 

I don’t question the need for most people to get vaccinated. I question the need for those with prior infection to get vaccinated, especially teens and eventually younger children. 
 

 

Surprising to me how many stores and restaurants have their staff not wearing masks. We’re basically a day or two from being in the 2nd worst wave. Being vaccinated is great but it should be followed up with masks and social distancing.

I’m assuming that practically everyone wore a mask last Fall when cases were lower than today. Why not wear one now that cases are skyrocketing in Texas?

4 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

The dataset I linked runs through July 17th which includes the last delta wave in Uk. So it would appear that previous infection provides protection against Delta. 
 

There’s also the data out of Israel and the latest delta wave that tends to suggest the same.  
 

I don’t question the need for most people to get vaccinated. I question the need for those with prior infection to get vaccinated, especially teens and eventually younger children. 
 

 

Everyone who can get vaccinated needs to. It’s that simple.   You want polio, smallpox or similar?  Go let be somwhere else.   Any anti vaccine shit here is pretty much uninformed terrorism.  I have no problem calling you a killer.  

18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Surprising to me how many stores and restaurants have their staff not wearing masks. We’re basically a day or two from being in the 2nd worst wave. Being vaccinated is great but it should be followed up with masks and social distancing.

I’m assuming that practically everyone wore a mask last Fall when cases were lower than today. Why not wear one now that cases are skyrocketing in Texas?

I'm back to wearing masks indoors in places like grocery stores, restaurants, etc.  I noticed more masks at the grocery store yesterday.  Had to pick up something at WalMart today and I was severely in the minority as a mask wearer.  I fear this will get worse before it gets better.

 

Reading earlier, there was speculation that Delta may burn out in the next month.  Can someone give me a "like I'm five years old" explanation of why that is, if so?

Hope the boosters are available soon.  Got my second Pfizer shot in mid January.

Edited July 31, 2021 by dcbc

Just now, dcbc said:

I'm back to wearing masks indoors in places like grocery stores, restaurants, etc.  I noticed more masks at the grocery store yesterday.  Had to pick up something at WalMart today and I was severely in the minority as a mask wearer.  I fear this will get worse before it gets better.

 

Reading earlier, there was speculation that Delta may burn out in the next month.  Can someone give me a "like I'm five years old" explanation of why that is, if so?

Might have something to do with its R5-8.

1 minute ago, Willfully Horn said:

Might have something to do with its R5-8.

Que?  Like I'm 5 years old . . .

3 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Can someone give me a "like I'm five years old" explanation of why that is, if so?

Because so many people have anti-bodies from getting covid.  Add those who are vaccinated and likely don't pass it on.  The virus is running out of targets

An infected person infects five to eight folks. Before, the ‘rona spread to two folks, if that. I think. Covid was easily transmissible, now it’s become super transmissible. So the timeline is sped up four times as fast.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Willfully Horn
Not an expert

Just now, Willfully Horn said:

An infected person infects five to eight folks. Before, the ‘rona spread to two folks, if that. I think. Covid was easily transmissible, now it’s become super transmissible.

Got it.  I get R0.  The 5-8 threw me off.  My little slice of Texas was R0 2.03 on 7/28 (reported), which is approaching March 2020 levels.  Presumably higher.

4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Its crazy how the govt or anyone in charge isnt telling people to take lots of Vitamin D and/or Zinc during these peaks. They make a huge difference imo

We have not let up with our supplements.

2 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

There’s also the data out of Israel and the latest delta wave that tends to suggest the same.  

Fuck off, this is a flat out lie. The last data on Israeli breakthroughs came out July 21 and I posted it on this board in a thread you read and have shit in for the last 18 months while spewing your idiocy. There have been no updates since. The last update suggests that neither vaccines, nor previous infection prevent Delta infection, but it is likely both reduce severity and symptoms strongly, especially if the vaccine, or infection was recent. The Israeli data says the complete opposite of what you are claiming, a bunch of breakthroughs are going to happen, but will have reduced symptoms. We have no idea how much risk of long covid you will have other than small sample Israeli studies show long covid is happening in 19% of breakthrough patients. Again, something I posted on this board recently and you are aware of.   

 

You are also being disingenuous by claiming the Wall Street Journal Opinion piece was suggesting breakthroughs are rare and that Gottlieb endorses your take. The OPINION article is about counting previously infected people as infected in the UK and whether they have anti-bodies right now. I can't read the whole thing, but I don't see what you mentioned at all in the part I can see.

Quote

For the record, 92% of Brits now show evidence of antibodies.

 

^ From your WSJ opinion piece. It's abundantly obvious to literally every single person actually in the United States that we are no where even close to 92% of our population having anti-bodies. 

 

We all see through you GRHorn and we'll see you again when you roll out your next sock to spew lies and endanger lives. 

Again. We can all see with our own fucking eyes the breakthroughs happening. It takes a special kind of asshole to come on here and spew lies right now, so you've got that going for you at least.  

7 minutes ago, midtown said:

Because so many people have anti-bodies from getting covid.  Add those who are vaccinated and likely don't pass it on.  The virus is running out of targets

I hope that is the case, but it is unlikely. Coronaviruses mutate like crazy, the fundamental assumption should have been that we'd be racing the virus with vaccine development and boosters. The idea that Covid wouldn't evolve to evade immunity goes against all the fundamentals of evolutionary biology. I believe Jeff Goldman summed it up. 

The idea was that Covid wouldn't be able to mutate the spike protein, because that's how it enters the cell. This is 100% the wrong way to look at it. This area is under the MOST selection pressure, precisely because it is how it enters the cell. Get in, replicate and get out to spread. The faster the virus does that, the less chance the body has to fight it. 

Covid is going to continue to circulate in unvaccinated folks for many years generating new variants. Gamma and Delta both have specific mutations to the S1 region of the spike protein that enable it to enter cells fasters. The variants that have evolved from them have inherited these mutations. 

It's a safe assumption that variants are going to continue to evolve to evade vaccines and we will need regular boosters unless we succeed in a worldwide eradication program we have yet to seriously start. 

Good news is, the mRNA vaccines are fucking incredible and can produce boosters very quickly to meet emerging threatening variants. Also, the variants spread relatively slowly given how big of a spread advantage they have. That's good news for our chances of identifying a threat and neutralizing it. 

The unknown is if the next variant is going to be less contagious and/or weaker etc.   The vaccines could be just as effective as well.   If so it probably won't make it out of the gate.    Hopefully delta is covids best shot

 

1 hour ago, dcbc said:

I'm back to wearing masks indoors in places like grocery stores, restaurants, etc.  I noticed more masks at the grocery store yesterday.  Had to pick up something at WalMart today and I was severely in the minority as a mask wearer.  

Gone back to wearing masks, now with a stock of N95s in the big stores. Was at Home Depot today and mask wearing was ~25% which is highest I have seen it in a long time. 

We have gone back to wearing masks in stores and only eating at restaurants if patio is available. 

18 minutes ago, midtown said:

The unknown is if the next variant is going to be less contagious and/or weaker etc.   The vaccines could be just as effective as well.   If so it probably won't make it out of the gate.    Hopefully delta is covids best shot

 

Don't bet on it, that's another false hope that everyone fell into because they wanted to believe it, but never made sense given the biology of this virus. 

Most viruses become less lethal over time, because they need to to spread further and faster. Killing the host quickly is bad for spread. 

Covid doesn't kill for at least 5 weeks after exposure and it has already spread countless times, so there is no selection pressure acting on it here. I wish this wasn't true, but it is. Whatever happens to lethality at the 5 week mark is already priced into the system.

Same principle behind why so many of our body functions start to lose effectiveness in our 40s-50s and onward. Throughout evolutionary history, humans have already had all the kids they are going to by that age, so there is no selection pressure past that point. 

Same principle here. I've been expecting it to get worse though selecting for higher viral load increasing overall R for the disease, which is what Delta seems to be doing. 

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We have gone back to wearing masks in stores and only eating at restaurants if patio is available. 

We only go to restaurants where the cook and servers aren't hacking or yacking.

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

“Facts are lies” - anti-vaxxers.

My kids watch Animaniacs, and saw an episode with this nice little quote from The Brain: "Lies are just facts that haven't been repeated enough yet."

 

 

 

2 hours ago, dcbc said:

Reading earlier, there was speculation that Delta may burn out in the next month.  Can someone give me a "like I'm five years old" explanation of why that is, if so?

Others have mentioned that it'll move fast.

There's one other aspect I saw mentioned - if you are susceptible to Delta, it's going to make you sick extremely fast, and knock you down and take you out of circulation, so it'll (in theory) cut down on the amount of people who have it and are out and about it. And some/more will be symptomatic who take appropriate measures (versus 2020 covid folks who were asymptomatic).  

Not sure if all of that makes a difference though, but remember, one of the symptoms of the original covid was that it made you want to travel.

2 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

I guess I’m sort of a contrarian by nature.

 

If you aren't vaccinated, please consider who you are listening to that has gotten you to this point. Virtually every person on this board with graduate level scientific or medical training is telling you the same thing. You see a lot of frustration in our responses, but that's because we actually do care whether you live, or die and we care about the people around you too.
If you have good faith questions, ask them, get those concerns addressed and get vaccinated. If not, please shut the fuck up right now. A bunch of Americans are about to die because of disinformation, at least have the decency to keep your ignorance to yourself and don't try to get someone else on this board killed too. 
You have smart motherfuckers on this board who care about you that want you to live. Don't listen to Texags, please get vaccinated. 

But, counterpoint:

https://www.the-sun.com/lifestyle/3381486/can-masturbating-boost-your-immune-system-fight-covid/

if this is true, then all the pervs in NSAA must be immune to everything.

4 hours ago, Pods said:

Fuck off, this is a flat out lie. The last data on Israeli breakthroughs came out July 21 and I posted it on this board in a thread you read and have shit in for the last 18 months while spewing your idiocy. There have been no updates since. The last update suggests that neither vaccines, nor previous infection prevent Delta infection, but it is likely both reduce severity and symptoms strongly, especially if the vaccine, or infection was recent. The Israeli data says the complete opposite of what you are claiming, a bunch of breakthroughs are going to happen, but will have reduced symptoms. We have no idea how much risk of long covid you will have other than small sample Israeli studies show long covid is happening in 19% of breakthrough patients. Again, something I posted on this board recently and you are aware of.   

Maybe some of your emotion is that we’re getting confused here.  Breakthrough to me is infections in the vaccinated. Re-infections are second infections in people that have had covid before. 

Anyway here’s a column on the latest data from Israel. 
 

The relevant section on re-infections. 
 

Who isn’t getting Delta? 

Well, it’s hard to say for sure because of confounders in the data, but it looks like recovered people — people who had tested positive for the coronavirus in a past PCR test — are massively under-represented. Recovered people are around 9% of Israel’s population, but they’re less than 1% of current cases. 

That has led to speculation that recovery from past Covid is more protective against infection from the Delta Variant than vaccination. Known recovered people in Israel are mostly not vaccinated, though some chose to get a single booster dose 

There could be other explanations for this result. The Delta wave is, for now at least, not affecting the communities hardest hit by Israel’s previous Covid waves: Ultra Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs. So perhaps recovered people aren’t being exposed to the virus yet. 

But I’m not sure that’s enough to explain the sharp difference. From data I was passed last week, recovered people were testing at only 0.1% positivity, compared to more than 1% for vaccinated people.

4 hours ago, Pods said:

 

You are also being disingenuous by claiming the Wall Street Journal Opinion piece was suggesting breakthroughs are rare and that Gottlieb endorses your take. The OPINION article is about counting previously infected people as infected in the UK and whether they have anti-bodies right now. I can't read the whole thing, but I don't see what you mentioned at all in the part I can see.

I think you mean re-infections here. I think re-infections and breakthrough infections are both rare. Do you not? I think they’re at least comparable. Which is my whole point. Vaccine and natural immunity are at least comparable. IM NOT SAYING VACCINES ARE BAD. MOST PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE THEM.
 

I’ve gone through this before but think about it, how many people do you know that have had a breakthrough infection? How many have had re-infection? How many people on this thread have posted about their own or someone they know having breakthrough infections? What about second infections?

 

Unfortunately I’m not aware of large scale, nationwide data on re-infections in our country. I’ve posted about two countries with more comprehensive data than our own. 
 

And this isn’t a sock. I started this only after my other one was axed.

I think you mean re-infections here. I think re-infections and breakthrough infections are both rare. Do you not? I think they’re at least comparable. Which is my whole point. Vaccine and natural immunity are at least comparable. IM NOT SAYING VACCINES ARE BAD. MOST PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE THEM.
 
I’ve gone through this before but think about it, how many people do you know that have had a breakthrough infection? How many have had re-infection? How many people on this thread have posted about their own or someone they know having breakthrough infections? What about second infections?
 
Unfortunately I’m not aware of large scale, nationwide data on re-infections in our country. I’ve posted about two countries with more comprehensive data than our own. 
 
And this isn’t a sock. I started this only after my other one was axed.

Oh fuck off GR.

In a theoretical country with 100% vaccinations, id wager that the vast majority of new infections will be breakthrough.  
 

plus this article says the current coverage for delta is 65% which is almost double the 39% in the previous article posted by I believe you. 

14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

In a theoretical country with 100% vaccinations, id wager that the vast majority of new infections will be breakthrough.  
 

plus this article says the current coverage for delta is 65% which is almost double the 39% in the previous article posted by I believe you. 

That’s all broken down in the column. Thanks for (not) reading. 

GRHORN still arguing again vaccinations?

GRHORN still arguing again vaccinations?

No, see, he’s absolutely FOR vaccinations….he just doesn’t think anyone should get one.

17 hours ago, Armybrat said:

We have not let up with our supplements.

Same here. I give my kids Vitamin C and D every day, and among my other supplements I take Vitamin D, zinc, and lycine, the latter of which is an amino acid that keeps a virus from replicating. Like the vaccine, they won’t keep us from getting COVID, the flu, or any other virus. But they bolster our immune systems to better arm us in fighting off all that shit.

Same here. I give my kids Vitamin C and D every day, and among my other supplements I take Vitamin D, zinc, and lycine, the latter of which is an amino acid that keeps a virus from replicating. Like the vaccine, they won’t keep us from getting COVID, the flu, or any other virus. But they bolster our immune systems to better arm us in fighting off all that shit.

Lots of people give your mom Vitamin D.

^ Okay, I think we're done here now.  

From the D to the Z and everywhere in between.  

Jesus fucking Christ. Both prior infection and vaccination confer some level of protection against delta infection. Further, vaccines are associated with a strong reduction in delta severe disease and mortality. It's reasonable that prior infection would be associated with a reduction in mortality associated with delta as well, but I don't that has been pinned down. I would not rely solely on the Israeli data either way in the discussion.

We know that a single vax dose elicits a robust response in previously infected. All the data to date suggests that the vaccines are extremely safe. A healthy person that has recovered from COVID should get at least one mRNA shot, preferably two, to boost their immunity in light of delta. Why wouldn't you want your immune system taking on the most robust posture to fight off a re-infection? Further there are good reasons for people vaxxed with JNJ to top up with an mRNA booster, and good reasons for certain high risk segments to get a 3rd shot, imo. Basically, mRNA shots for errrbody. 

Hopefully delta is the last major wave, but there are a few additional mutations that could be combined with delta to theoretically make the ubervariant.     

Lol y’all arguing with GR.  
 

Pods, thanks you for your service but all you’ll get is ‘aww shucks’ / ‘you’re being emotional’ / ‘you misunderstood’…so go practice reading to a wall instead, it’d be more productive. 

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Lots of people give your mom Vitamin D.

 

15 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

Maybe some of your emotion is that we’re getting confused here.  Breakthrough to me is infections in the vaccinated. Re-infections are second infections in people that have had covid before. And this isn’t a sock. I started this only after my other one was axed.

Get fucked, the only "confusion" here is you intentionally misunderstanding things. 

 

15 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Lol y’all arguing with GR.  
 

Pods, thanks you for your service but all you’ll get is ‘aww shucks’ / ‘you’re being emotional’ / ‘you misunderstood’…so go practice reading to a wall instead, it’d be more productive. 

I appreciate that Homer, but I'm not trying to actually talk to, or argue with known liar and troll GRHorn. I'm doing it for people who don't recognize his posting style that have fallen for his lies under his previous accounts. Disinformation and lies are getting people killed and he's been the single biggest purveyor of them on this board for years by a large margin. He's been banned multiple times for lying and comes right back as a new account. He'll be back with a new one now that he's admitted this is yet one more of his socks. 

He's either a professional troll, or has a serious and untreated psychological problem, that causes him to pathologically seek out and spread disinformation while people are dying. Either way, the results are the same. 

I'm not at all ashamed to say I am fucking pissed about it. Unlike GRHorn, many of us have known each other for going on 20 years, some longer. I may disagree with a lot of you, but I care about you motherfuckers and I want to see you healthy and happy.

If you didn't join this board a few years ago, exclusively to troll and derail conversations like GRHorn, and you have good faith questions about the vaccine, ask them. Then, please go get vaccinated. 

21 hours ago, Pods said:

Fuck off, this is a flat out lie. The last data on Israeli breakthroughs came out July 21 and I posted it on this board in a thread you read and have shit in for the last 18 months while spewing your idiocy. There have been no updates since. The last update suggests that neither vaccines, nor previous infection prevent Delta infection, but it is likely both reduce severity and symptoms strongly, especially if the vaccine, or infection was recent. The Israeli data says the complete opposite of what you are claiming, a bunch of breakthroughs are going to happen, but will have reduced symptoms. We have no idea how much risk of long covid you will have other than small sample Israeli studies show long covid is happening in 19% of breakthrough patients. Again, something I posted on this board recently and you are aware of.   

 

You are also being disingenuous by claiming the Wall Street Journal Opinion piece was suggesting breakthroughs are rare and that Gottlieb endorses your take. The OPINION article is about counting previously infected people as infected in the UK and whether they have anti-bodies right now. I can't read the whole thing, but I don't see what you mentioned at all in the part I can see.

 

^ From your WSJ opinion piece. It's abundantly obvious to literally every single person actually in the United States that we are no where even close to 92% of our population having anti-bodies. 

 

We all see through you GRHorn and we'll see you again when you roll out your next sock to spew lies and endanger lives. 

Again. We can all see with our own fucking eyes the breakthroughs happening. It takes a special kind of asshole to come on here and spew lies right now, so you've got that going for you at least.  

I thought the data out of Israel showed the benefit of having antibodies from prior infection. I understand that everyone needs to be vaccinated but antibodies from prior infection does count towards herd immunity does it not?

Lots of people give your mom Vitamin D.

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Jesus fucking Christ. Both prior infection and vaccination confer some level of protection against delta infection. Further, vaccines are associated with a strong reduction in delta severe disease and mortality. It's reasonable that prior infection would be associated with a reduction in mortality associated with delta as well, but I don't that has been pinned down. I would not rely solely on the Israeli data either way in the discussion.

We know that a single vax dose elicits a robust response in previously infected. All the data to date suggests that the vaccines are extremely safe. A healthy person that has recovered from COVID should get at least one mRNA shot, preferably two, to boost their immunity in light of delta. Why wouldn't you want your immune system taking on the most robust posture to fight off a re-infection? Further there are good reasons for people vaxxed with JNJ to top up with an mRNA booster, and good reasons for certain high risk segments to get a 3rd shot, imo. Basically, mRNA shots for errrbody. 

Hopefully delta is the last major wave, but there are a few additional mutations that could be combined with delta to theoretically make the ubervariant.     

Agree with all of this. The other countries to watch right now are the UK, Gibraltar and Malta. Infection data looks better for them than Israel, but Israel vaccinated a bit earlier, so that may be the cause. Could also have to do with differing vaccination rates between them. Either way, that can be fixed by increased vaccinations, or a booster. 

Recent infection, or vaccination likely confers protection that decreases over time, but I haven't seen any data on that for infected folks. We know alpha can reinfect people that had the original Wuhan version. We know delta can reinfect both alpha and original wuhan version patients. We know alpha and delta can both cause breakthrough infections in vaccinated folks.

Both previously infected, and previously vaccinated, are going to get delta. The data on how often is all over the place, but it doesn't seem to be uncommon. I think it's important we acknowledge this, because it is going to be used by anti-vaxxers to attack the credibility of the vaccine. The infected numbers everywhere are below the percentage of vaccinated in the population. It's working. 

We also know VACCINES ARE SQUASHING THE SEVERITY AND DEATH RATES everywhere. So far, it's the same signal in every country. Vaccines are allowing more infections than we'd hoped, but saving lots of lives.  

1 hour ago, Pods said:

Get fucked, the only "confusion" here is you intentionally misunderstanding things. 

 

I appreciate that Homer, but I'm not trying to actually talk to, or argue with known liar and troll GRHorn. I'm doing it for people who don't recognize his posting style that have fallen for his lies under his previous accounts. Disinformation and lies are getting people killed and he's been the single biggest purveyor of them on this board for years by a large margin. He's been banned multiple times for lying and comes right back as a new account. He'll be back with a new one now that he's admitted this is yet one more of his socks. 

He's either a professional troll, or has a serious and untreated psychological problem, that causes him to pathologically seek out and spread disinformation while people are dying. Either way, the results are the same. 

I'm not at all ashamed to say I am fucking pissed about it. Unlike GRHorn, many of us have known each other for going on 20 years, some longer. I may disagree with a lot of you, but I care about you motherfuckers and I want to see you healthy and happy.

If you didn't join this board a few years ago, exclusively to troll and derail conversations like GRHorn, and you have good faith questions about the vaccine, ask them. Then, please go get vaccinated. 

I guarantee you he is being paid to do this. Like I’m that dude from the men’s warehouse selling suits with my guarantee.
 

You gotta be one kind of psycho to take money to kill people, even if indirectly. Come to think of it, that makes him both a psycho and a coward. 

5 hours ago, South Austin said:

Same here. I give my kids Vitamin C and D every day, and among my other supplements I take Vitamin D, zinc, and lycine, the latter of which is an amino acid that keeps a virus from replicating. Like the vaccine, they won’t keep us from getting COVID, the flu, or any other virus. But they bolster our immune systems to better arm us in fighting off all that shit.

for anyone that doesn't know, when you first feel a fever blister/cold sore coming on start popping lysine and it won't come up but you got to start as soon as you feel it.  you're welcome

Everybody I know with Covid right now, including myself, is a “breakthrough” infection. So really not sure how long anyone is going to be able to hold onto that circumstance being rare. It’s not.

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Lots of people give your mom Vitamin D.

I appreciate everyone’s concern for my health but I wouldn’t mind y’all mixing in some vitamin C and zinc. 

14 minutes ago, SarkAfterDark said:

Everybody I know with Covid right now, including myself, is a “breakthrough” infection. So really not sure how long anyone is going to be able to hold onto that circumstance being rare. It’s not.

Oh it's probably not rare. The question is how bad is it really for most of them (and while I think more data is needed we are finding out for a lot of folks ehh, not that bad). 

I think on a normal year (which the last 18 months have certainly not been) that between the occasional allergy flare up, a stomach bug, and "colds/flu' of various types I am "sick" 5-6 times a year.  In a normal year maybe one of those times am I "sick enough" to where it slows me down (call out from work, what have you for a day to get back on my feet) and once every 2-3 years am I really sick enough to where I am on my ass (runs for several days, lay around in bed not wanting to do much of anything).  That's normal, and if for most vaccinated people that is what this looks like (yea I get Covid here and there and every now and then it makes me feel pretty shitty) I would be perfectly fine with it. 

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by Surly Bevo

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

Oh it's probably not rare. The question is how bad is it really for most of them (and while I think more data is needed we are finding out for a lot of folks ehh, not that bad). 

I think on a normal year (which the last 18 months have certainly not been) that between the occasional allergy flare up, a stomach bug, and "colds/flu' of various types I am "sick" 5-6 times a year.  In a normal year maybe one of those times am I "sick enough" to where it really slows me down and on a once every 2-3 years am I really sick enough to where I am on my ass.  That's normal, and if for most vaccinated people that is what this looks like (yea I get Covid here and there and every now and then it makes me feel pretty shitty) I would be perfectly fine with it. 

 

Is not bad at all. Isolation seems to be the hardest part for most. The worst actual symptom(s) I’ve heard was a cough, some difficulty breathing, and some chest pressure. I’ve mainly been asymptomatic and felt much worse when I had RSV a couple of weeks ago.

35 minutes ago, lmao said:

I thought the data out of Israel showed the benefit of having antibodies from prior infection. I understand that everyone needs to be vaccinated but antibodies from prior infection does count towards herd immunity does it not?

If Israel has that data, I haven't seen it. I think it's likely recent infections have some level of immunity, especially against the same strain you recover from, but we know that new variants can re-infect patients who have recovered from an earlier strain. We also know "herd immunity" from natural infections doesn't exist if a new variant arises. That's why we all need to vaccinate and take regular boosters. 

We don't have a lot of data for this on delta yet, it's coming in now. So our best bet is to look at Gamma, which doesn't spread quite as quickly as Delta. Amazonas province in Brazil was crushed by two waves of covid, the second after reaching theoretical herd immunity. 

The first wave peaked in April 2020 with a long tailing off period. Based on blood sampling, by October 2020 approximately 76% of the population had contracted the original wuhan strain of Covid, or one of two slightly mutated, but still close versions, which replaced the original wuhan strain in ~June 2020. Note: this puts them well over the 70% herd immunity number that gets thrown around frequently. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7857406/

Gamma originated in the region, sometime around November 2020, when 3/4 of the population had already been infected. By the end of Dec 2020, they had passed their previous hospitalization peak. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7906746/ 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01378-7

 

Unfortunately, deaths and burials also exceeded their prior peak during the second wave. We can't tease out how many were in the 24% that hadn't caught Covid yet, and what percent were in the 76% that had been previously infected, but it's a safe assumption that a fair number were re-infected with this large of numbers. 

There's a bunch of caveats that would turn this into a much longer post, but the point is, herd immunity without vaccinations and booster shots does not exist. If you are relying on previous immunity from an infection, especially if it was a long time ago, be safe and get vaccinated. 

We should expect breakthrough infections and we should expect re-infections of previously infected people. Some of them will be hospitalized. As long as we don't overload the hospitals, it is going to be overwhelmingly the unvaccinated dying, because their body has no experience fighting covid and delta is going to wreck them. 

I know everyone is fucking beaten down by this, but keep an N95 on and be extra vigilant for the next week or so, we're about to have a ton of data on Delta. 

 

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 Why wouldn't you want your immune system taking on the most robust posture to fight off a re-infection?

I look at it this way. 
 

Let’s say for purposes of this discussion my chances of getting re-infected in the next 12 months are 1%. If I opt to get vaccinated then I expose myself to all of the common possible side effects we all know. Could be nothing. Could last a few days. Then there’s the extremely rare side effects. All for dropping that 1% to what 0.5%?
 

Then you consider that I’m young, healthy and a second covid infection would likely be weaker than the first which one was relatively mild. The math doesn’t add up.  
 

2 hours ago, Pods said:

Get fucked, the only "confusion" here is you intentionally misunderstanding things. 

 

I appreciate that Homer, but I'm not trying to actually talk to, or argue with known liar and troll GRHorn. I'm doing it for people who don't recognize his posting style that have fallen for his lies under his previous accounts. Disinformation and lies are getting people killed and he's been the single biggest purveyor of them on this board for years by a large margin. He's been banned multiple times for lying and comes right back as a new account. He'll be back with a new one now that he's admitted this is yet one more of his socks. 

He's either a professional troll, or has a serious and untreated psychological problem, that causes him to pathologically seek out and spread disinformation while people are dying. Either way, the results are the same. 

I'm not at all ashamed to say I am fucking pissed about it. Unlike GRHorn, many of us have known each other for going on 20 years, some longer. I may disagree with a lot of you, but I care about you motherfuckers and I want to see you healthy and happy.

If you didn't join this board a few years ago, exclusively to troll and derail conversations like GRHorn, and you have good faith questions about the vaccine, ask them. Then, please go get vaccinated. 

First you call me a liar without basis. Now me saying that natural immunity is comparable to vaccine immunity is “killing people”. Hyperbolic to say the least.

 

Anyway here’s people from Cleveland Clinic with a hand from an ID doc from UCSF spreading “disinformation” and “killing people”. 
 

 

Just now, Muy Frio said:

I look at it this way. 
 

Let’s say for purposes of this discussion my chances of getting re-infected in the next 12 months are 1%. If I opt to get vaccinated then I expose myself to all of the common possible side effects we all know. Could be nothing. Could last a few days. Then there’s the extremely rare side effects. All for dropping that 1% to what 0.5%?
 

Then you consider that I’m young, healthy and a second covid infection would likely be weaker than the first which one was relatively mild. The math doesn’t add up.  
 

First you call me a liar without basis. Now me saying that natural immunity is comparable to vaccine immunity is “killing people”. Hyperbolic to say the least.

 

Anyway here’s people from Cleveland Clinic with a hand from an ID doc from UCSF spreading “disinformation” and “killing people”. 
 

 

You're an idiot

11 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Oh it's probably not rare. The question is how bad is it really for most of them (and while I think more data is needed we are finding out for a lot of folks ehh, not that bad). 

I think on a normal year (which the last 18 months have certainly not been) that between the occasional allergy flare up, a stomach bug, and "colds/flu' of various types I am "sick" 5-6 times a year.  In a normal year maybe one of those times am I "sick enough" to where it slows me down (call out from work, what have you for a day to get back on my feet) and once every 2-3 years am I really sick enough to where I am on my ass (runs for several days, lay around in bed not wanting to do much of anything).  That's normal, and if for most vaccinated people that is what this looks like (yea I get Covid here and there and every now and then it makes me feel pretty shitty) I would be perfectly fine with it. 

 

That's the problem, we don't really know, there isn't enough data. Experience with Gamma says re-infections of previously infected is going to be a huge fucking problem. I don't think that applies 1:1, they are likely more susceptible genetically than much of our population, it was a complete surprise that re-infections could happen, the Brazilian govt basically said "fuck it" and let it burn both times, and the healthcare standards aren't remotely comparable to ours for people with access to healthcare. 

Delta is not showing the same mortality spike for the vaccinated. No one really knows, but it doesn't seem to be spiking in the previously infected either. Fingers crossed it stays that way. 

The UK, Gibraltar and Malta are showing fewer breakthrough infections than Israel. Every country on earth is still showing the vaccines squashing mortality and severity, even past the 6 month mark where infections seem to be increasing.   

I THINK the vast majority of breakthrough infections and re-infections in the US are going to be mild, but I don't think it's possible for anyone to know. Combined with the unknown risk of long covid, I'd advise a cautious approach until we know more in a couple of weeks. Delta spreads really quickly, it's not going to take long until we know how it's going to behave in the west.