COVID-19 vaccine discussion

29 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Right when school starts. I gotta feeling we may see decrease in adult numbers but a spike in children.

Is it possible that tons of children have already gotten it by way of summer activities?  Camps, sports, play dates etc.  I assume a lot of the big brain includes these type of data point as well the fact that every day that another person contracts covid that's one less spreader after they recovery.   I hope you are wrong and the forecasts are right

30 minutes ago, midtown said:

Actually most data that I've seen says delta is about to fall off a cliff.  Predicted peak cases on Aug 11

Can you share where you're seeing this? I realize that Israel and the UK show a 2-month peak growth and a sharp decline. But Israel has the area of New Jersey and UK of Michigan.  And I assume they both have higher population densities that allow for quick cycles. This wave is going to take a while to burn through the low(er) vaccinated states and even the highly vaccinated states.  Tennessee and northern GA have barely been been hit but they're surrounded on 3 sides by increasing cases. 

Now if your Aug 11th prediction is that Missouri, Arkansas or LA might peak, you could be correct. Personally I bet that Texas is looking at early Sept as a peak but school starting could extend that. Uneducated guess by me.

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Can you share where you're seeing this? I realize that Israel and the UK show a 2-month peak growth and a sharp decline. But Israel has the area of New Jersey and UK of Michigan.  And I assume they both have higher population densities that allow for quick cycles. This wave is going to take a while to burn through the low(er) vaccinated states and even the highly vaccinated states.  Tennessee and northern GA have barely been been hit but they're surrounded on 3 sides by increasing cases. 

Now if your Aug 11th prediction is that Missouri, Arkansas or LA might peak, you could be correct. Personally I bet that Texas is looking at early Sept as a peak but school starting could extend that. Uneducated guess by me.

I’m curious to see that data as well. And the UK and Israel have some of the best vaccine uptake with adults, so I feel like it’s a different ballgame.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Doug E. Fresh

Both charts are in this thread already.    Ill add the latest from fundstrat here;   

 

53 minutes ago, midtown said:

Actually most data that I've seen says delta is about to fall off a cliff.  Predicted peak cases on Aug 11

 

Zero chance. We're ~ 1 month behind Israel and they are still climbing, or at their peak. They've been hovering around 4,000 cases a day for a few days.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-in-israel-3843-new-cases-379-percent-of-tests-return-positive-676024

 

Same with hospitalizations, look at the graph @Anastasis posted. Those trail by ~2 weeks, but they are showing an exponential increase for unvaccinated hospitalizations. This is going to get uglier, before it gets better.

I really hope I'm wrong. 

 

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Pods

3 minutes ago, midtown said:

Both charts are in this thread already.    Ill add the latest from fundstrat here;   

 

Thanks for posting. It's fairly ballsy (or perhaps not at all) for someone to predict an Aug 11th peak on Aug 9th. Unless we see a quick Florida peak and COVID whiffing on TX or GA, there is no way the peak is Wednesday. Regardless this will prediction will play out soon.

SIAP, New Orleans Jazz Festival cancelled. It was scheduled for mid-October.

https://t.co/umbABImbrm

@Sawbonz posted a report that predicts a peak in October.

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's fairly ballsy (or perhaps not at all) for someone to predict an Aug 11th peak on Aug 9th.

Their analysis and forecasts on covid have been by far the most accurate.   It's just a statistical analysis.  There isn't some guru in a room with a crystal ball making predictions per se.

Edited August 9, 2021 by midtown

On 8/7/2021 at 8:45 PM, Sawbonz said:

I don’t think this is correct:

 

Pretty clear he is including teens and children as a subgroup of the prior infected group 

 

also wrt the relative risk study from CDC I can’t find the absolute risk of either group. That is pretty important to know to know whether an extra 60% reduction is clinical significant 

The absolute risk is super low for both of them- like under 1%  and 0.4%  Yes- it's 60% but it's 60% of a really small number so at the end of the day nobody should really care all that much.  Should you do it? Probably. Does it really matter?  1 in 1400 times.  Those aren't the people we have to worry about getting the thing to, and, as always, a sense of perspective has been missing from this whole thing. Balancing tests matter. Efficacy matters. Overall absolute risk management matters.  

I think for most recovered Covid patients this thing is really low. I'm not worried about my pretty fit brother of 40 and his family of 6 who all had this thing, shrugged it off, and didn't get the booster b/c they'd already had it. I asked him why not just get it and he told me Bill Gates government tracking chips (he was joking) but never got a straight answer.  Could you make him comply if you made life hard enough for him?  Sure, but the benefit just isn't all that high for either him or society.  Got to pick all the low hanging fruit first. My suspicion is if we managed that this thing would be gone (more or less)

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

@Sawbonz posted a report that predicts a peak in October.

That sounds much more realistic. Most places are not really taking any mitigation efforts. Mask usage is really low, even with the threat of Delta. That plus schools opening across the country with no mask mandates are going to extend Delta into the fall. 

End of the day we are still talking about like a 1/1,000,000 or 1/10,000,000 chance of my fully vaccinated 43 year old ass dying of this thing- right?  Serious question as I don't have the inclination to follow this with the same fervency as many of yall.  

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

a sense of perspective has been missing from this whole thing.

The missing perspective is that we should be listening to the doctors and scientists. We have fundamentally failed in our response as a country, because a large percentage of us decided to embrace superstition and pseudoscience instead. 

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

@Sawbonz posted a report that predicts a peak in October.

 

6 minutes ago, Pods said:

That sounds much more realistic. Most places are not really taking any mitigation efforts. Mask usage is really low, even with the threat of Delta. That plus schools opening across the country with no mask mandates are going to extend Delta into the fall. 

here's the report being referenced

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

End of the day we are still talking about like a 1/1,000,000 or 1/10,000,000 chance of my fully vaccinated 43 year old ass dying of this thing- right?  Serious question as I don't have the inclination to follow this with the same fervency as many of yall.  

Pretty low likelihood of serious illness or death if you are infected within 6 months after vaccination.  After that, who knows?

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

End of the day we are still talking about like a 1/1,000,000 or 1/10,000,000 chance of my fully vaccinated 43 year old ass dying of this thing- right?  Serious question as I don't have the inclination to follow this with the same fervency as many of yall.  

Yes, since you're fully vaccinated you're very unlikely to die.

I don't know how to convince you that you should care about more than yourself, though.

1 minute ago, Pods said:

The missing perspective is that we should be listening to the doctors and scientists. We have fundamentally failed in our response as a country, because a large percentage of us decided to embrace superstition and pseudoscience instead. 

I got fully vaxed the second it was available and nagged my Trump hating Democrat voting wife to get vaxed- which she did a month after me, finally. I have more or less contempt for anyone embracing snake oil to save this thing- and have said I will cry no tears for those who fucked around and found out.  But why doesn't that mean we can't also point out that the difference between a vaxinated person who is recovered from Covid and a non-vaxinated person who has recovered from Covid is a 1/1400 chance at a breakthrough infection, and that said breakthrough infection is highly unlikely to make fuck all difference in that persons life as it's likely to be a pretty minor thing.

Both thoughts can be held in a persons head at the same time, right? Or at least one that's not excessively simple. 

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Yes, since you're fully vaccinated you're very unlikely to die.

I don't know how to convince you that you should care about more than yourself, though.

I do care about way more than myself.  I just don't care more for someone else than they do for themselves.  If you don't want to get the vax and bad shit happens to you then FAFO seems to be the thread of where we are as a society. 

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

But why doesn't that mean we can't also point out that the difference between a vaxinated person who is recovered from Covid and a non-vaxinated person who has recovered from Covid is a 1/1400 chance at a breakthrough infection, and that said breakthrough infection is highly unlikely to make fuck all difference in that persons life as it's likely to be a pretty minor thing.

Both thoughts can be held in a persons head at the same time, right? Or at least one that's not excessively simple. 

Your spelling is nearly as bad as your selfish take on this.

From what I have read the science does not suggest that unvaccinated reinfections are unlikely to make fuck all difference in that person's life.  Unless of course you mean highly unlikely as in a low percentage (which it's been for everyone since the beginning).  But at what point does that low percentage start to matter?  When you (or someone you care about) are part of it.

1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:

Your spelling is nearly as bad as your selfish take on this.

From what I have read the science does not suggest that unvaccinated reinfections are unlikely to make fuck all difference in that person's life.  Unless of course you mean highly unlikely as in a low percentage (which it's been for everyone since the beginning).  But at what point does that low percentage start to matter?  When you (or someone you care about) are part of it.

And this goes back to the part you missed or ignored at the very beginning which was absolute risk needs to be factored into this thing and is severely lacking as a perspective.  Life has the risk of something really bad happening to you or someone you love at any point in time. If the risk is great enough you should change your life to deal with that. If the risk is low enough that it doesn't make sense in a balancing act to change your behavior then you cross your fingers and hope you get lucky, or trust in the law of large numbers that every human being must deal with every time they get behind the wheel of a car or every time they say goodbye to a loved one. Shit can happen.  When figuring out how to plan for said shit happening it's important to know the likelihood of it happening, the effect it will have on a person when it does happen, and the harm that exists in mitigation.  Then, you can get to a rational answer.

My spelling isn't great. Especially when I'm hammering away on an I-phone while pecking away on the can. 

6 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Your spelling is nearly as bad as your selfish take on this.

From what I have read the science does not suggest that unvaccinated reinfections are unlikely to make fuck all difference in that person's life.  Unless of course you mean highly unlikely as in a low percentage (which it's been for everyone since the beginning).  But at what point does that low percentage start to matter?  When you (or someone you care about) are part of it.

Also dude- as I mentioned I've got the Vax. Everyone I've had a conversation to and any influence over I've told to get the vax, I've complied with all mandates etc for 18 months.  Hardly selfish behavior. As far as engaging in mental masterbation on the internet talking about efficacy and risk management isn't exactly harmful behavior. If everyone engaged in actual risk management on getting a free shot that causes almost no bad effect and is 99+ effective then everyone would have the shot.  Which they should. 

22 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

From a friend, also in Houston:

 

Our Pediatrician just posted stats from her office regarding children:

May: 1 Covid infection

June: 1 Covid infection

July: 1 Covid infection

August: 16 Covid infections so far

i'm still a few pages behind so someone may have already mentioned this, or posted related data...

but if the Delta, Lamda, etc. variants start hitting children harder than the original flavor...perhaps we will finally see everyone take it more seriously?

it's affecting only old people? meh, stay home grandpa, you already lived life. 

it's affecting our children?? OMG DO SOMETHING!!!

i know, who am i kidding, right...but if that's what it takes...trying to find some silver lining here...

'Blues On The Green' concert series postpones shows amid 'public health emergency' https://t.co/vjksx3qCOr

On 8/7/2021 at 7:56 PM, Pods said:

 

As I posted up thread, I'm not a medical doctor. Most people on here already know that. I have graduate degrees in Anatomy and Evolutionary Biology. 

I've taught medical school, dental school, PT/OT, PA and nurse anesthesiologists. 

That wasn't a facetious question btw, I knew you had some biology or medical background just forgot what it was. 

35 minutes ago, Captainant said:

here's the report being referenced

I'd put much more weight on analysis by a company that is financially incentivized to predict/forecast especially when they have unlimited resources with which to do so than a cash strapped local health department in a single county.    Aug 11 sure does seem outrageous here on the ground but I also assume they have far more data then all the health departments and surly posters combined. 

36 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

End of the day we are still talking about like a 1/1,000,000 or 1/10,000,000 chance of my fully vaccinated 43 year old ass dying of this thing- right?  Serious question as I don't have the inclination to follow this with the same fervency as many of yall.  

 

30 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I do care about way more than myself.  I just don't care more for someone else than they do for themselves.  If you don't want to get the vax and bad shit happens to you then FAFO seems to be the thread of where we are as a society. 

I agree with your thoughts on that the none vaxxed are the ones playing with fire and they made their bed. 

Personally I don't want to get a disease that might lead to long term problems for me. I've been in a pulmonologist's office and seen what lung problems can do to someone. No thanks. Dying from COVID is actually the least of my worries. I assume it would be a bad lead-in to death but relatively quick ending.

I don't have a problem about going out in public wearing a mask right now. I probably would avoid long term exposure to someone, masked or not.

34 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I got fully vaxed the second it was available and nagged my Trump hating Democrat voting wife to get vaxed- which she did a month after me, finally. I have more or less contempt for anyone embracing snake oil to save this thing- and have said I will cry no tears for those who fucked around and found out.  But why doesn't that mean we can't also point out that the difference between a vaxinated person who is recovered from Covid and a non-vaxinated person who has recovered from Covid is a 1/1400 chance at a breakthrough infection, and that said breakthrough infection is highly unlikely to make fuck all difference in that persons life as it's likely to be a pretty minor thing.

Both thoughts can be held in a persons head at the same time, right? Or at least one that's not excessively simple. 

 

33 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I do care about way more than myself.  I just don't care more for someone else than they do for themselves.  If you don't want to get the vax and bad shit happens to you then FAFO seems to be the thread of where we are as a society. 

This of course ignores the reality that those who FAFO are helping to extend the pandemic and increase the potential for worse outcomes.  So, by wanting to highlight the relatively low absolute risk of serious injury and death by breakthroughs or reinfections (because you personally are not likely to have a negative outcome), you are projecting a selfish perspective.

23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And this goes back to the part you missed or ignored at the very beginning which was absolute risk needs to be factored into this thing and is severely lacking as a perspective.  Life has the risk of something really bad happening to you or someone you love at any point in time. If the risk is great enough you should change your life to deal with that. If the risk is low enough that it doesn't make sense in a balancing act to change your behavior then you cross your fingers and hope you get lucky, or trust in the law of large numbers that every human being must deal with every time they get behind the wheel of a car or every time they say goodbye to a loved one. Shit can happen.  When figuring out how to plan for said shit happening it's important to know the likelihood of it happening, the effect it will have on a person when it does happen, and the harm that exists in mitigation.  Then, you can get to a rational answer.

My spelling isn't great. Especially when I'm hammering away on an I-phone while pecking away on the can. 

At what point in your balancing act do you believe that people should modify their behavior?  If, for example, the risk of a terrorist bombing of an airplane is less than 1 in 1 million, should we stop all efforts to prevent them?

 

19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also dude- as I mentioned I've got the Vax. Everyone I've had a conversation to and any influence over I've told to get the vax, I've complied with all mandates etc for 18 months.  Hardly selfish behavior. As far as engaging in mental masterbation on the internet talking about efficacy and risk management isn't exactly harmful behavior. If everyone engaged in actual risk management on getting a free shot that causes almost no bad effect and is 99+ effective then everyone would have the shot.  Which they should. 

Good.  Glad you did what was best for you and helps all of us by reducing the risk of spread and taxing of our healthcare system.

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

I agree with your thoughts on that the none vaxxed are the ones playing with fire and they made their bed. 

Personally I don't want to get a disease that might lead to long term problems for me. I've been in a pulmonologist's office and seen what lung problems can do to someone. No thanks. Dying from COVID is actually the least of my worries. I assume it would be a bad lead-in to death but relatively quick ending.

I don't have a problem about going out in public wearing a mask right now. I probably would avoid long term exposure to someone, masked or not.

I've put my gym classes on hold for the time being.  This makes me angry.

I do care about way more than myself.  I just don't care more for someone else than they do for themselves.  If you don't want to get the vax and bad shit happens to you then FAFO seems to be the thread of where we are as a society. 

Cool, except you left out the part where the “FAFO” person ends up taking up hospital capacity that some vaxxed person needs for something other than COVID.

12 minutes ago, wood said:

'Blues On The Green' concert series postpones shows amid 'public health emergency' https://t.co/vjksx3qCOr

ACL is next.

Well shit is hitting the fan for us.  My gf just got a text from her sister that their aunt and uncle tested positive. They are in Alaska, hardcore trumpers and hoax shit hardcore. They went out a few days ago to a birthday dinner packed in Anchorage but told the sister that had felt bad for a week. He is 76 and she is 68 (I think) he also survived throat cancer like 6 years ago that was pretty rough on him from what I have heard. Their family group text last night turned into vaccine talk and the last message the aunt sent was "if I die then that is because God wants me home." Just fucking insane.

But the cod fish and chips at Humpy's was worth it.

9 minutes ago, scottsins said:

Cool, except you left out the part where the “FAFO” person ends up taking up hospital capacity that some vaxxed person needs for something other than COVID.

And the part where the "FAFO" people infect vaccinated people who take it home to their kids, who can't get vaccinated. And the part where the FAFO people keep helping create new variants that cause more breakthroughs, may cause more harm to those breakthrough victims, and may be more harmful for children. And the part where this continued bullshit keeps dragging on the economic recovery. Etc. The FAFO assholes are hurting much more than just themselves.

12 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

ACL is next.

13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

ACL is next.

Yeah that's what I figger. Then MotoGP & F1.

ACL Live just announced a mask mandate + proof of vax or a negative test within the last 48 hours.

And Texas home games? 

5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And Texas home games? 

masked and social distancing.  have to do both. Delta variant much more contagious and deadly.

Edited August 9, 2021 by dcar00

Do people still go to ACL?

2 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Do people still go to ACL?

No it’s way too crowded now.

7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Do people still go to ACL?

Only if you have instgram

57 minutes ago, scottsins said:

Cool, except you left out the part where the “FAFO” person ends up taking up hospital capacity that some vaxxed person needs for something other than COVID.

What's the option? Round em up?  Jail them? Fine them?  Don't treat them?  Again, every single person I've ever had a discussion with this about I've said- "don't be stupid- get yourself stuck- there's no downside and it's all upside."  You can say the same about all sorts of people engaged in stupid and destructive behavior that they are "taking up hospital capacity" yet we treat them (and do so for free in many cases) all the time.  

It's stupid and frustrating and ridiculous to think people don't get this vaccine that have no reason not to get it.  I'm just not going to expend a lot of emotional energy on it when their bad choices lead to bad results for them. Beyond that, we are probably too far down the rabbit hole to get many more people to take the shot than already have.  Once the stupid solidifies it becomes something that you aren't likely to argue people out of nor persuade them out of- you can punish them or let it run its course as a general course of action.  

1 hour ago, scottsins said:

Cool, except you left out the part where the “FAFO” person ends up taking up hospital capacity that some vaxxed person needs for something other than COVID.

But that could be managed at the hospital level, no? Don’t let covid patients take all the beds. As fewer beds are available, get more and more selective about which covid patients you take. The others you send home and tell them to come back if their heart stops beating.

Jury Duty in MoCo last Monday.

57 Jurors personally checked in by the court clerk.

Court clerk had Covid.

Will be interesting to see the numbers from that.

1 minute ago, XYZ said:

But that could be managed at the hospital level, no? Don’t let covid patients take all the beds. As fewer beds are available, get more and more selective about which covid patients you take. The others you send home and tell them to come back if their heart stops beating.

something something, dEaTh PaNeLs

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What's the option? Round em up?  Jail them? Fine them?  Don't treat them? 

Don't allow them into certain parts of society.   No schools; no post offices; no sporting events; no airplanes; cruise ships; etc etc

Shit all we need to do is have Walmart ban the unvax and you've solved your problem almost over night

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You can say the same about all sorts of people engaged in stupid and destructive behavior that they are "taking up hospital capacity" yet we treat them (and do so for free in many cases) all the time.  

Can you? Other than this pandemic when has hospital capacity been maxed out across the country?

 

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

Can you? Other than this pandemic when has hospital capacity been maxed out across the country?

 

yeah, that's a pretty dumb parallel to draw

7 minutes ago, F250 said:

Can you? Other than this pandemic when has hospital capacity been maxed out across the country?

 

I literally meant taking up hospital/healthcare resources.  If nobody engaged in costly and/or stupid behavior we'd collectively as a society save a fortune.

Again, nowhere in here am I arguing against taking the vaccine.  I'm saying lets quantify what the numbers say, what the harm to society is and then scale a response that's appropriate.  You know, looking at and trusting data to govern our response to this thing.  Literally, the only thing I'm saying is take care of the big stuff that's within reach before we worry about the stuff that doesn't move the envelope. 
If my wife is spending us into BK b/c she has a $2,000 car note per month and can't stop buying $1,000 hand bags and shoes that's where I'm focusing all my energy and attention fixing, not getting her to get rid of her Starbucks habit.  

20 minutes ago, midtown said:

Don't allow them into certain parts of society.   No schools; no post offices; no sporting events; no airplanes; cruise ships; etc etc

Shit all we need to do is have Walmart ban the unvax and you've solved your problem almost over night

Walmart is actually requiring all of their corp employees to be vaccinated to come back to the office.  Obviously, that doesn't apply to their retail teams

Walmart is actually requiring all of their corp employees to be vaccinated to come back to the office.  Obviously, that doesn't apply to their retail teams

I meant customers

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I literally meant taking up hospital/healthcare resources.  If nobody engaged in costly and/or stupid behavior we'd collectively as a society save a fortune.

Again, nowhere in here am I arguing against taking the vaccine.  I'm saying lets quantify what the numbers say, what the harm to society is and then scale a response that's appropriate.  You know, looking at and trusting data to govern our response to this thing.  Literally, the only thing I'm saying is take care of the big stuff that's within reach before we worry about the stuff that doesn't move the envelope. 
If my wife is spending us into BK b/c she has a $2,000 car note per month and can't stop buying $1,000 hand bags and shoes that's where I'm focusing all my energy and attention fixing, not getting her to get rid of her Starbucks habit.  

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. The strain on the healthcare system and the virus mutating are the biggest societal costs. Both of these are being driven by the unvaccinated.