COVID-19 vaccine discussion

Cracker Barrel is Chuck-E-Cheese for old people. Also I don't know why the bleach-drinking guy is complaining, he at least got a waiter in Cracker Barrel to bring him something. Last time I was there (at the urging of an old person) I almost never got any silverware. Meanwhile the busboy was crashing and splashing a watery tub filled with dishes on the next table at my elbow. I should have taken control of my life and just grabbed a spoon out of the water and used it. Don't worry, I would have licked it clean first.

It seems the latest hot topic is the Omicron sub-lineage that is out-competing Omicron in Denmark and UK.    Has anyone seen data that actually indicates we should be concerned?  Cases are still dropping in the UK so is there any evidence there is enhanced severity or ability evade original Omicron immunity or is this just typical Covid Alarmism from the usual suspects?

43 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It seems the latest hot topic is the Omicron sub-lineage that is out-competing Omicron in Denmark and UK.    Has anyone seen data that actually indicates we should be concerned?  Cases are still dropping in the UK so is there any evidence there is enhanced severity or ability evade original Omicron immunity or is this just typical Covid Alarmism from the usual suspects?

I would think any new variant should be a cause for concern and tracked. I don't see that as alarmism, but simply pragmatism when faced with limited information. But I don't think we have any specific data that would indicate this new sub-variant is more harmful if that is what you mean.  

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I would think any new variant should be a cause for concern and tracked. I don't see that as alarmism, but simply pragmatism when faced with limited information. But I don't think we have any specific data that would indicate this new sub-variant is more harmful if that is what you mean.  

There was definitely some alarmism from the usual suspects.  Basically an implication that a 'new wave' was potentially starting which really didn't make any sense (at this point). Just curious if anything others had seen that was concerning.  100% agreed it should be tracked. 

On 1/23/2022 at 10:48 AM, achooloco said:

The brekky?! The fuck is that?

I didn't know TXSooner was Australian

I didn't know TXSooner was Australian

Ha! It’s a fun one to toss in on occasion esp in a non serious context. I can see how someone (non-Aussie) relentlessly using it would be pretty irritating.

2 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Ha! It’s a fun one to toss in on occasion esp in a non serious context. I can see how someone (non-Aussie) relentlessly using it would be pretty irritating.

Cheers mate.

Looks pretty arguable that the Omicron wave crested at some point in the last 10 days.

7-day moving average of reported cases in the  US is down from 798K on 1/15 to 663K as of yesterday.

Cases have dropped significantly along the east coast, from Massachusetts all the way down to Florida. Couple more weeks I'd imagine to finish burning through the rest of the country. 

 

Regarding updated vaccines:

https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/25/pfizer-biontech-begin-trial-omicron-based-vaccine/

Pfizer and BioNTech have started a study comparing their Omicron-based Covid-19 vaccine to the original vaccine, the companies said in a statement on Tuesday.

If regulators were to decide to wait for data from such a study, it could mean it will be many months before an Omicron-specific vaccine would be available. 

Pfizer said it expects initial findings from the study, which will enroll 1,420 volunteers, to be available during the first half of 2022.

However, it is not exactly clear what data regulators such as those at the Food and Drug Administration would require before authorizing an Omicron-specific vaccine, or what requirements the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will have for recommending one.

Dumb question amnesty needed: 

Would an Omicron specific vaccine open the door for a more virulent strain of Covid to become dominant?

2 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Dumb question amnesty needed: 

Would an Omicron specific vaccine open the door for a more virulent strain of Covid to become dominant?

I’m not sure either but I’ve always wondered if the virus would mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly. It’s not a sentient thing that is out to kill people. Rather It seems reasonable to believe that a virus’ only goal is to survive and replicate. Therefore more transmissible and less deadly means success. Evolving into something more deadly means killing off hosts, which in evolutionary terms means failure for the virus. 

21 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m not sure either but I’ve always wondered if the virus would mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly. It’s not a sentient thing that is out to kill people. Rather It seems reasonable to believe that a virus’ only goal is to survive and replicate. Therefore more transmissible and less deadly means success. Evolving into something more deadly means killing off hosts, which in evolutionary terms means failure for the virus. 

I think he's concerned that if this minor variant is eradicated, that it would clear the lanes for more serious variants to thrive (see Delta surpassing Omicron if Omicron is put in check)?

Good news for those of you that had breakthrough infections:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.abn8014

2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

I think he's concerned that if this minor variant is eradicated, that it would clear the lanes for more serious variants to thrive (see Delta surpassing Omicron if Omicron is put in check)?

Correct. But I’m a moron so…

Would it be possible for some sort of immune mediated response symptom to be muscle pain in the general area of vaccine/booster vaccine site? I have had some pretty good deep bone-ish pain in my arm for about 5-6 days. No acute injury. I've been in the gym but this is not that and it's in a strange spot, not really "on" any of the major arm/shoulder muscles. I just can't think of anything else. 

9 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m not sure either but I’ve always wondered if the virus would mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly. It’s not a sentient thing that is out to kill people. Rather It seems reasonable to believe that a virus’ only goal is to survive and replicate. Therefore more transmissible and less deadly means success. Evolving into something more deadly means killing off hosts, which in evolutionary terms means failure for the virus. 

Yes, it's why we don't see worldwide outbreaks of ebola..... not yet anyway.

16 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Dumb question amnesty needed: 

Would an Omicron specific vaccine open the door for a more virulent strain of Covid to become dominant?

This is not a dumb question.

There are no stupid questions.

Only stupid people, that ask questions.

 

13 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Correct. But I’m a moron so…

I don't think any prescribed treatment is going to "stop" variants other than new variants themselves.  Delta overtook Alpha and Omi overtook Delta.  Further, vaxes as we're finding out don't really stop transmission as they were sold.  They mitigate symptoms like the traditional flu shots

Quote

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said that Covid-19 vaccines are no longer effective at preventing transmission of the virus.

The director for the CDC publicly acknowledged in a CNN interview that the COVID-19 vaccine is not effective at preventing transmission of the virus.

In a segment on CNN with Wolf Blitzer, Walensky said that while the vaccines are doing very well to protect against serious illness and death, what they cannot do anymore is stop transmission.

Transmission

So if we take this as gospel, then you are just protecting individuals from serious adverse reactions, but not really curtailing the spread of the virus until herd immunity kicks in (which statistically it has is many areas and demographics)

20 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Dumb question amnesty needed: 

Would an Omicron specific vaccine open the door for a more virulent strain of Covid to become dominant?

Yes 

16 hours ago, Dontshootrude said:

Good news for those of you that had breakthrough infections:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.abn8014

 

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

I don't think any prescribed treatment is going to "stop" variants other than new variants themselves.  Delta overtook Alpha and Omi overtook Delta.  Further, vaxes as we're finding out don't really stop transmission as they were sold.  They mitigate symptoms like the traditional flu shots

Transmission

So if we take this as gospel, then you are just protecting individuals from serious adverse reactions, but not really curtailing the spread of the virus until herd immunity kicks in (which statistically it has is many areas and demographics)

Herd immunity doesn't kick in if transmission still takes place among vaxxed and unvaxxed recovered.  The reality is that herd immunity may not be attainable in the setting of a mutating virus that still transmits well among vaxxed and recovered.  I guess the bright lining is that, at least to the extent that prior exposure/vax effect against severe disease is durable, severity and impact is diminished, even if transmission is unchecked.    

Edited January 26, 2022 by Anastasis

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Herd immunity doesn't kick in if transmission still takes place among vaxxed and unvaxxed recovered.  The reality is that herd immunity may not be attainable in the setting of a mutating virus that still transmits well among vaxxed and recovered.  I guess the bright lining is that, at least to the extent that prior exposure/vax effect against severe disease is durable, severity and impact is diminished, even if transmission is unchecked.    

True.  If we never reach herd immunity with the various flu strains, it's doubtful we reach it with Covid.  In the end, we are going to play whack-a-mole with the strains as we do with Flu A, B, etc.  And yes, everyone is going to catch it eventually.

That is also just domestic control.  What's the stat?  85% of the US population has at least one shot?  Upwards of 90+% of the vulnerable demographic (mainly older)?  When we talk about "vaxxed" and "unvaxxed", we have to take into consideration the region and demographics of the area.  

I've long maintained that if the world leaders were serious about reaching everyone, there would be strong political pressure on the vax manufacturers to release both patent and production TTP secrets and allow massive developing country production.  

21 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Dumb question amnesty needed: 

Would an Omicron specific vaccine open the door for a more virulent strain of Covid to become dominant?

You asked specifically about virulence, but in terms of raw numbers omicron is just as deadly as delta because what it lacks in virulence it makes up for in transmissibility.  Both strains were/are running around 2k deaths per day nationwide at their peak, and have similar total death numbers attributed to them.  Plus omicron is operating in a tougher environment than delta, with a higher vaxed pop and a higher previously infected pop. 
 

under that context, I think I’d prefer delta to omicron since the hospital bed usage and deaths are similar but fewer mildly sick people missing work and school and having to quarantine. 

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

under that context, I think I’d prefer delta to omicron since the hospital bed usage and deaths are similar but fewer mildly sick people missing work and school and having to quarantine. 

Not just missing work or quarantining, it's the people running to the ER with mild symptoms that clogs it up as well.

13 hours ago, Baboontyme said:

Would it be possible for some sort of immune mediated response symptom to be muscle pain in the general area of vaccine/booster vaccine site? I have had some pretty good deep bone-ish pain in my arm for about 5-6 days. No acute injury. I've been in the gym but this is not that and it's in a strange spot, not really "on" any of the major arm/shoulder muscles. I just can't think of anything else. 

More possible that the shot giver hit a nerve or caused a deep bruise.

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I think I’d prefer delta to omicron since the hospital bed usage and deaths are similar but fewer mildly sick people missing work and school and having to quarantine. 

I enjoy missing work, and used to enjoy missing school.  And it's way better if you're not really all that sick.

1 hour ago, SizzleChest said:

Not just missing work or quarantining, it's the people running to the ER with mild symptoms that clogs it up as well.

 

And the assholes who no one really wants to save.

5 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I enjoy missing work, and used to enjoy missing school.  And it's way better if you're not really all that sick.

I don’t enjoy things being out of stock because too many people in the supply chain are out sick. 

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t enjoy things being out of stock because too many people in the supply chain are out sick. 

Keep buying that as the reason and you'll have no money anyway.

I thought this was a good article for explaining the difference between “herd immunity” (enough of the population has immunity, even if temporary, to halt a spread) and “super immunity” (through vaccines and past infections, people’s bodies are good at fighting it off):

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/herd-immunity-is-over-superimmunity-covid-omicron-immune-system-virus-variants-antibody-antibodies-11642448736

Allysia Finley

Forget about herd immunity. Covid-19 vaccines and prior infection don’t provide lasting protection against infection and transmission, especially with the Omicron variant. That makes it impossible for enough of the population to become immune to stop the virus from spreading.

But don’t despair. Omicron will give much of the population what some scientists call “superimmunity”—stronger protection against new variants and even future coronaviruses. Normal life will be possible even as the virus continues to spread and mutate. Superimmunity won’t necessarily stop people from being infected or transmitting the virus. But most people who get infected, even with a more virulent variant, will experience mild or no symptoms.

To understand why, consider how the immune system works. Two types of white blood cells, T- and B-cells, tag-team to vanquish invading pathogens. T-cells act as sentinels that circulate in the lymph nodes and bloodstream. When they spot an invader, they kick into action. One type of T-cell destroys infected cells. Another signals B-cells, the immune system’s force multipliers, to proliferate and secrete antibodies that neutralize the pathogen. Antibodies target proteins on the pathogen known as antigens.

Once the army of white blood cells and their antibody foot soldiers have defeated the virus, most die off. But some white blood cells that remember the pathogen persist and hone their combat skills. These so-called memory T-cells continue to reside in the bone marrow, lymph nodes and other tissues, ready to mobilize the immune system if they encounter the intruder again. 

Meantime, memory B-cells go to boot camp in the lymph nodes, where they get into better fighting shape should the invader return. Memory B-cells train to produce antibodies that can block new variants. When and if the virus reappears, they can more rapidly reproduce and produce more-potent antibodies.

Vaccines emulate natural infection by training the immune system with a pseudo-virus or antigen—in the case of Covid-19, the spike on the surface of the virus that it uses to bind to human cells. Antibodies produced after vaccination tend to decline more rapidly than after infection, perhaps because the virus particles persist longer in the body than the vaccine-simulated antigens. 

With both infection and vaccination, the immune system gets quicker, stronger and smarter after being exposed to a new challenge. Researchers have found that people who were infected by Covid-19 and later vaccinated crank out higher levels and a broader array of antibodies that last longer than do people who have only been vaccinated. 

Similarly, a study last month by the Oregon Health and Science University found that vaccinated people who experienced breakthrough infections produced higher levels of antibodies that were up to 1,000% more effective than those generated two weeks after a second dose of the Pfizervaccine. The researchers described this as superimmunity. 

“I think this speaks to an eventual end game,” said co-author Marcel Curlin. “It doesn’t mean we’re at the end of the pandemic, but it points to where we’re likely to land: Once you’re vaccinated and then exposed to the virus, you’re probably going to be reasonably well-protected from future variants.” Dr. Curlin added: “Our study implies that the long-term outcome is going to be a tapering off of the severity of the worldwide epidemic.”

A study last month from South Africa found that people who were infected with Omicron produced antibodies that were more than four times better at neutralizing the Delta variant. Booster vaccines also improve the immune response by giving B-cells more time to mature—one reason antibodies after three Pfizer shots are capable in lab experiments of neutralizing Omicron while those after two aren’t. 

But boosters train the immune system against the same target. Omicron’s myriad mutations create a bigger challenge for the B- and T-cells, and thereby strengthen the immune response. To use an analogy, if you train at doing push-ups, you’ll get stronger—but not as strong as if you also did pull-ups.

Infection also strengthens the T-cell response. T-cells from vaccinated people have been found to retain 70% to 80% of their efficacy against the Omicron variant spike protein. This has helped prevent more severe illness, even though vaccine antibodies are less effective against Omicron.

But infection trains T-cells to recognize virus proteins that also are less likely to mutate than the spike. Some of these proteins share similarities with the original SARS virus as well as four coronaviruses that can cause the common cold. SARS survivors have been found to have memory T-cells 17 years after infection that also recognized parts of the Covid-19 virus. A new study from the U.K.’s Imperial College found that people with pre-existing T-cells to non-spike proteins in common-cold coronaviruses were less likely to get infected with Covid-19. 

All of this suggests that infection with Omicron is likely to stimulate potent and durable protection against Covid-19—and potentially other coronaviruses—even if it mutates to become more virulent. As Omicron rapidly spreads, people who have been vaccinated or previously infected will develop superimmunity. Covid-19 will become a virus that causes cold- and sometimes flulike symptoms—annoying but rarely deadly or disruptive.

One caveat is that older people generate weaker T-cell responses and memories to infections and vaccines. They’re likely to need annual booster shots. Omicron will end the pandemic by making Covid-19 endemic.

Ms. Finley is a member of the Journal’s editorial board.

Sounds like I need to go catch Omicron.

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Sounds like I need to go catch Omicron.

Yep, so says Peter Attia.  These two podcasts do a pretty good job of discussing where we are now.

My approach for the rest of my life:  Wear a mask if I think I'm sick with some sort of respiratory illness.  Wear a mask if I know I'm going to be around vulnerable folks or if someone asks me to.  Other than that, I'm going to get immunized when I'm told to, and not give a fuck about how anyone else wants to handle themselves.

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-current-state-omicron/

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/

Good luck to all of you.  Barring some big change, we've got the vaccine, we've got treatments, and we're done, apart from looking out for those at risk - old people, immuno-compromised, and fatties.

On 1/23/2022 at 2:41 PM, RDCanecutter said:

Cracker Barrel is Chuck-E-Cheese for old white people.

I want to be old guy making a mess at pho shops when I'm (really) old.  God I hope my gizzard can handle pork when I'm 90.

6 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Yep, so says Peter Attia.  These two podcasts do a pretty good job of discussing where we are now.

My approach for the rest of my life:  Wear a mask if I think I'm sick with some sort of respiratory illness.  Wear a mask if I know I'm going to be around vulnerable folks or if someone asks me to.  Other than that, I'm going to get immunized when I'm told to, and not give a fuck about how anyone else wants to handle themselves.

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-current-state-omicron/

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/

Good luck to all of you.  Barring some big change, we've got the vaccine, we've got treatments, and we're done, apart from looking out for those at risk - old people, immuno-compromised, and fatties.

yeah, I kinda dig your jam...but the whole dismissive sounding, "I mean, except for old people, immuno-compromised, and fatties."   

Uh, you literally just named half the U.S. population.  Granted it's a very over-lapping venn diagram, but there are 110 million Americans over 55.  There are 70 million American adults who are clinically obese.  Assume that venn diagram overlaps by almost half---that's still 95 million.  Throw in 10 million immuno-compromised that aren't one of the above and then 20 million obese children.  That's 40% of the U.S. population.  I mean I'm with you most of the way, but you're asterisk for public health can't be..."So let's follow what I've outlined and we're in a good place as a nation...(mumbles)...except for this group over here the size of Japan or Mexico."  

But yeah, one thing I hope continues is the Asiatic trend...if you're sick with flu or bad cold and need to go out from now on, just mask up and go about your business (don't go to work though).  And if you have bad allergies, quit coughing on my fucking coffee shop's pastry case.  

9 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I want to be old guy making a mess at pho shops when I'm (really) old.  God I hope my gizzard can handle pork when I'm 90.

Well, if you can't handle pork at 90, you eat it anyway, and make a bigger mess.

15 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Uh, you literally just named half the U.S. population. 

Old people, immuno-compromised and the obese are likely in more danger from things other than COVID19.  And with vaccines those folk's are much safer.  All I'm saying is that I am going to be more responsive to their concerns than I would for healthier people when it comes to masking. 

I personally have found masking to be completely easy - you carry one in your pocket.  There is data to support the fact that wearing a good one can protect others from me if I have the flu or other respiratory illness. I'm really just arguing that it really should be everyone for themselves + responsiveness to other individuals. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by The Original Greaser Bob

10 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

until herd immunity kicks in (which statistically it has is many areas and demographics)

What is one area where herd immunity has kicked in?

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

What is one area where herd immunity has kicked in?

 

Moose sickness?

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

What is one area where herd immunity has kicked in?

South Austin’s moms house 

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

What is one area where herd immunity has kicked in?

South Austin’s moms house 

On 1/26/2022 at 1:20 PM, Liquor and Poker said:

More possible that the shot giver hit a nerve or caused a deep bruise.

I wasn't very clear but thank you for the reply. This is long after the poke. I think I got my booster in November. I am wondering if maybe I picked up the virus but my body was fighting it off and one of the immune responses could have been pain in injection site. I had no other symptoms but this pain was pretty lockstep with the arm soreness I experienced after shots 1 and 2. Unlike any other type of arm pain I'm familiar with. I took a test last week when it started and it was negative but shrug. Just odd. It seems to have mostly subsided for now. For a few days I was having a hard time lifting my arm parallel to the ground. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Baboontyme

Do u even lift?

6 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Do u even lift?

Negged for not adding "bro."

32 minutes ago, Baboontyme said:

I wasn't very clear but thank you for the reply. This is long after the poke. I think I got my booster in November. I am wondering if maybe I picked up the virus but my body was fighting it off and one of the immune responses could have been pain in injection site. I had no other symptoms but this pain was pretty lockstep with the arm soreness I experienced after shots 1 and 2. Unlike any other type of arm pain I'm familiar with. I took a test last week when it started and it was negative but shrug. Just odd. It seems to have mostly resided for now. For a few days I was having a hard time lifting my arm parallel to the ground. 

Was it easier when you were laying in bed?

19 hours ago, Lobo said:

if you're sick with flu or bad cold and need to go out from now on, just mask up and go about your business (don't go to work though).  And if you have bad allergies, quit coughing on my fucking coffee shop's pastry case. 

Good luck with that. 

Went to the ENT doctor a couple days ago and she confirmed that she has seen a lot of people coming in with ringing in their ears after COVID or the vaccine.  So, pretty awesome that the vaccine gave me tinnitus.  

7-day case average down to 596K, which is still very high, but down significantly from 802K 2 Fridays ago.

Went to the ENT doctor a couple days ago and she confirmed that she has seen a lot of people coming in with ringing in their ears after COVID or the vaccine.  So, pretty awesome that the vaccine gave me tinnitus.  

Ive had it in my right ear for 35 years since an M-1 Carbine blew up on me, so hell if I know whether it’s vax related or not. Don’t think anyone else in my family has it, though.

Mine has gotten progressively worse since having COVID 18 months ago and getting vaccinated.  Damn annoying.