COVID-19 vaccine discussion

PSA for Austin folks. Been trying to set up a vaccine appointment for my mom, checking multiple times a day over the past week or so. Some appointments came available today for tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday at Delco and also at Dove Springs Rec Center (south - Onion Creek/Airport area).

1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

That makes sense from a logical standpoint, but it's not accurate at all. At least not at this stage in the process. Whether it's the old folks shopping around or their kids helping, it's damn near impossible to get a spot in line. We're spending several hours every day looking just like millions of other people. If there are shots laying around unused, it's not because old folks aren't being aggressive enough in finding them

this. kids/relatives are all helping their parents/grandparents.

1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

That makes sense from a logical standpoint, but it's not accurate at all. At least not at this stage in the process. Whether it's the old folks shopping around or their kids helping, it's damn near impossible to get a spot in line. We're spending several hours every day looking just like millions of other people. If there are shots laying around unused, it's not because old folks aren't being aggressive enough in finding them

Right - I'm not necessarily talking about at this moment in time.  I'm more thinking about a few weeks from now.  As it stands now I think a lot of it is patience.  I got my dad an appt a few weeks from now at a rural site.  But he called me today and got a call from Arlington for an appt on Friday.  So clearly some locations are only scheduling a few days in advance.  My best guess is 1 month from now it will be pretty easy for anyone 65+ that hasn't gotten their shot to get one. 

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Do we think the number of shot allocations includes everything?  I keep thinking there may have been shot allocations sent earlier that were for medical folks, first responders, and elderly care facilities that may not be showing in the public records.

The allocation numbers are from the feds for Texas, going back to week 1.  I got them from the HHS website.  I think they reflect all doses manufactured and allocated, but I am not certain.  The feds may have held back some for themselves.  The "actual" numbers are from the Texas dashboard.

I’m feeling more optimistic that vaccines will end this thing and we can get back to normal in the next 4 months or so.  Am I wrong?

2 minutes ago, Hunt Stevenson said:

I’m feeling more optimistic that vaccines will end this thing and we can get back to normal in the next 4 months or so.  Am I wrong?

of course it will end it in US.  but back to normal won't happen.

Just now, dcar00 said:

of course it will end it in US.  but back to normal won't happen.

I disagree 

There are 44,000+ on the appointment waiting list with the Family Emergency “hub” provider here in Wilco. They were supposed to start vaccinating from their 6,000 does shipment today.
 I registered there more than 10 days ago.

Call your county commissioner. Make some noise, probably will help in Wilco.

The state allocating vaccines is going to shut this horseshit down.  But glad my folks have already got the 1st shot just in case.

You called it.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/01/20/dallas-vaccine-plan-communities-of-color/

56 minutes ago, Hunt Stevenson said:

I’m feeling more optimistic that vaccines will end this thing and we can get back to normal in the next 4 months or so.  Am I wrong?

Four months feels optimistic to me given the current issues. I understand some expansion of supply is expected but we are moving way too slow to meet the "pandemic basically over by Memorial Day" target. Whether things will get back to normal is sort of a different discussion because that isn't totally correlated with where things stand with the pandemic, there's the political angle too.

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Four months feels optimistic to me given the current issues. I understand some expansion of supply is expected but we are moving way too slow to meet the "pandemic basically over by Memorial Day" target. Whether things will get back to normal is sort of a different discussion because that isn't totally correlated with where things stand with the pandemic, there's the political angle too.

Our current 7 day vaccine rate average is ~ 900k per day. 1/1 it was less than 300k.  It has been steadily increasing every day. If for some reason all improvement stopped and we kept our current rate, your looking at 1/3 of the population vaccinated before Memorial Day, and that will include the majority of those at risk. Hitting 2 million a day by the end of February should be within the realm of possibilities.  I would expect things to be ready to go back to normal by Memorial Day. 

1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

Our current 7 day vaccine rate average is ~ 900k per day. 1/1 it was less than 300k.  It has been steadily increasing every day. If for some reason all improvement stopped and we kept our current rate, your looking at 1/3 of the population vaccinated before Memorial Day, and that will include the majority of those at risk. Hitting 2 million a day by the end of February should be within the realm of possibilities.  I would expect things to be ready to go back to normal by Memorial Day. 

Hope so man. I said optimistic, not impossible. We'll know a lot more about the trajectory in the coming weeks. No CR, but whatever changes in federal policy/operations will start taking effect now.

I'll go with the other summer bookend of Labor Day as a return to normalcy.  Clearly the virus (as do most) thrives in the winter (indoors, drier air, blah blah blah) and while summer and warm weather in and of itself didn't beat a damn thing in 2020 it clearly helped knock it back some (I shudder to think of what Texas would have been like if the June/July free for all had it been December)  Now with that coming,  the vaccine in play and frankly the fact so many fucking people have had it (which if you buy the CDC 5-6x of confirmed cases means we are sitting at 125-150M and even if you want to cut that in half you are at 60-70M) things should start to turn the corner in the next 4-6 weeks,  steadily improve through spring and then really rocket back to a good place by end of summer.  

A few caveats and one concern

Normal in the US, probably UK maybe EU plus throw in places like Japan, and a few others who have always been dealing with it well or are pretty developed countries.  The rest of the world ain't coming around for another 18-24 months.

There is no what the fuck virus mutation shit that makes all vaccines a 100% limp dick in our hands.

I saw a stat yesterday on one of the other Covid threads that a recent poll still showed only 58% of Americans are saying they will take the vax.  Let's hope they are practiced at lying to pollsters, their hearts and minds change, or they fucking had it/get it and immunity from that continues to show to be fairly long lasting. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Surly Bevo

For those in groups 1A and 1B looking for a shot, check Bell County.  My wife got her 1st shot tonight (Pfizer) and said the process was well organized and quick.  There is no residency requirement.  She successfully booked a shot for next week, then more opened up and she moved it up.  They seem to have a lot of availability.

She is a school librarian at a school with one of the highest % of low SES kids.  She has to teach in person, and due to her position, has classes with every in-person kid in the school every week.  It has been nerve-racking for her.  In almost every other state, teachers are 1B per the CDC recommendation. In Texas, they were reclassified.  While they are essential, they are not essential enough.  She qualified as 1B because she has an autoimmune condition that puts her at increased risk according to her rheumatologist.

I got my first dose (Moderna) 2 weeks ago at H‑E‑B.  It feels great to breathe a little and will be even better once we both get our 2nd dose. 

HEB apparently got a batch of 400 moderna vaccines to distribute in Wharton TX, and will open their scheduling platform at 9AM for people in 1A and 1B.

For those in groups 1A and 1B looking for a shot, check Bell County.  My wife got her 1st shot tonight (Pfizer) and said the process was well organized and quick.  There is no residency requirement.  She successfully booked a shot for next week, then more opened up and she moved it up.  They seem to have a lot of availability.

She is a school librarian at a school with one of the highest % of low SES kids.  She has to teach in person, and due to her position, has classes with every in-person kid in the school every week.  It has been nerve-racking for her.  In almost every other state, teachers are 1B per the CDC recommendation. In Texas, they were reclassified.  While they are essential, they are not essential enough.  She qualified as 1B because she has an autoimmune condition that puts her at increased risk according to her rheumatologist.
I got my first dose (Moderna) 2 weeks ago at H‑E‑B.  It feels great to breathe a little and will be even better once we both get our 2nd dose. 

As of 1 minute ago, there is no live link to schedule appointments with the Bell County hub, so I’m not sure how to get in on all of this availability.


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Maybe I misspoke.  Twice in about 5 days she was able to book an appointment.  She has been pretty vigilant and had been shut out in Travis County at every possible location.  In comparison, Bell County seems to have more availability.  Keep checking.  I think their portal opened up late afternoon to early evening both times she got through.  

45 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

 

I saw a stat yesterday on one of the other Covid threads that a recent poll still showed only 58% of Americans are saying they will take the vax.  Let's hope they are practiced at lying to pollsters, their hearts and minds change, or they fucking had it/get it and immunity from that continues to show to be fairly long lasting. 

My sister (no pics) is a nurse, and she follows this pretty close. She says that studies suggest that percent will go up as more and more folks take the Cure.  They'll see their neighbors not growing hooves or whatever and change their minds.

Here's a question.  There's a lotta talk that we'll need to wear masks even after getting the 2nd round.  Why?

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

My sister (no pics) is a nurse, and she follows this pretty close. She says that studies suggest that percent will go up as more and more folks take the Cure.  They'll see their neighbors not growing hooves or whatever and change their minds.

Here's a question.  There's a lotta talk that we'll need to wear masks even after getting the 2nd round.  Why?

Because there is a lot of ins and outs and what-have-you's...

Got 1st round last Monday.   Scheduled for 2nd round on 2/5.   No issues other than a sore arm for a couple days.   Pretty tired on second day but it might be due to travel.  

Opinions:

Re: wearing masks after vaccinated:  If you are aware enough to make the effort to get vaccinated this early, you will have no problem modelling responsible behavior until we reach critical mass, and even thereafter.  We'll reach a tipping point on that, and we should feel blessed when we do.

Re: vaccination policies (definitely my opinion):  just get shots in arms.  Hopefully this is like (rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic)^-1.  I have more faith in production being ramped up than I do in developing cogent and implementable prioritization policies.  Get moving and get people vaccinated -- by the time you settle arguments about vulnerable olds vs high risk youngs, you could get a significant portion of each vaccinated. 

[Personal bias:  from my anecdotal experience, I'd  pull up a vax van at every construction site and restaurant kitchen I came across.   It seems to be rampant and and particularly devastating  within our hispanic working class population and their families.]

You called it.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/01/20/dallas-vaccine-plan-communities-of-color/

Article misstated where the vaccine sites were. They aren’t in wealthy neighborhoods unless something changed around fair park. I drove to desoto to get my parents vaccinated

Is there any difference in the Atrazeneca shot that we are waiting to approve here and the one being used in the UK?  It’s been approved by a similar group, and it has been given to 1+ million people the last 3 weeks. Why isn’t this getting approved here tomorrow?  

Is there any difference in the Atrazeneca shot that we are waiting to approve here and the one being used in the UK?  It’s been approved by a similar group, and it has been given to 1+ million people the last 3 weeks. Why isn’t this getting approved here tomorrow?  

It’s also the vax the US has the biggest contract for (300M doses vs 200M for Moderna 200M for Pfizer 100M for J&J and smaller contracts for a few others still in process)

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

It’s also the vax the US has the biggest contract for (300M doses vs 200M for Moderna 200M for Pfizer 100M for J&J and smaller contracts for a few others still in process)

I get they are worried about the safety, or at least about being responsible if it is not safe, but I assume that the people that approved it in the UK we’re just as smart  as qualified as our people.  If they approved it, that means there was data for them to look at, and our group should be able to come to the same conclusion today, or at least say why they disagree. 

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

My sister (no pics) is a nurse, and she follows this pretty close. She says that studies suggest that percent will go up as more and more folks take the Cure.  They'll see their neighbors not growing hooves or whatever and change their minds.

Here's a question.  There's a lotta talk that we'll need to wear masks even after getting the 2nd round.  Why?

There is a question as to whether a vaccinated person can still carry and transmit the virus.  Right now, it's more of "it's not impossible" as opposed to "it's possible" but that question still needs to be resolved.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/20/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-works-just-as-well-against-variant-first-detected-in-u-k-study-indicates/

The Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech appears to work just as well against a fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus first identified in the United Kingdom as it does against earlier forms of the pathogen, the companies reported in a study Wednesday.

The Pfizer study tech told my wife we'll be wearing masks into 2022. Lolz, there's no way Karen and Ken will tolerate that past this summer.

23 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

The Pfizer study tech told my wife we'll be wearing masks into 2022. Lolz, there's no way Karen and Ken will tolerate that past this summer.

Lol.  Yeah.  I’m sure the Pfizer study tech knows all about it.  
 

I’m vaccinated.  I’m ok wearing a mask until a critical mass is reached and once we have good data showing that vaccines do in fact prevent infection (likely), and not just asymptomatic infection.  I’d also like to see cases and hospitalizations go WAY down.  
 

But once all those things occur, which I suspect will be May/June ish, there is no fucking point in wearing a mask past that.  None.  Back to normal.  If you want to wear a mask because it makes you feel safer...go for it.  If you want to wear a mask if you’re feeling a little sick...that’s probably a great thing to do.  

33 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

The Pfizer study tech told my wife we'll be wearing masks into 2022. Lolz, there's no way Karen and Ken will tolerate that past this summer.

The more I wear a mask, the less It bothers me. Even if covid disappears, I could see myself wearing one in a crowded place if there was a heavy cold and flu season. It also keeps you warm on a cold day.

Is there any difference in the Atrazeneca shot that we are waiting to approve here and the one being used in the UK?  It’s been approved by a similar group, and it has been given to 1+ million people the last 3 weeks. Why isn’t this getting approved here tomorrow?  

Lol.. Because bureaucracy

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The more I wear a mask, the less It bothers me. Even if covid disappears, I could see myself wearing one in a crowded place if there was a heavy cold and flu season. It also keeps you warm on a cold day.

I can see myself doing this as well. Knock on wood but I haven't been sick and my kids haven't been sick since March.  There are extenuating circumstances that help that but no doubt masking up helps

I don’t think AZN has even submitted for the EUA yet. Happy to blame bureaucracy, but AZN has done a good job of finding novel ways to shit the bed at almost every turn. 

Didn't see it mentioned yet. Isreal reports first Pfizer only 30% effective

Lol.  Yeah.  I’m sure the Pfizer study tech knows all about it.  
 
I’m vaccinated.  I’m ok wearing a mask until a critical mass is reached and once we have good data showing that vaccines do in fact prevent infection (likely), and not just asymptomatic infection.  I’d also like to see cases and hospitalizations go WAY down.  
 
But once all those things occur, which I suspect will be May/June ish, there is no fucking point in wearing a mask past that.  None.  Back to normal.  If you want to wear a mask because it makes you feel safer...go for it.  If you want to wear a mask if you’re feeling a little sick...that’s probably a great thing to do.  

Once everyone who wants a vaccine has one, most people are going to burn their masks, myself included. This 2022 shit is nonsense. Once everyone has a chance to get the shot, I won't be taking precautions for anti vaxxers or the nerds and doomers who are enjoying the pandemic.

There's a finish line in sight whether the media and the "new normal" geeks like it or not.

I’d guess masks start coming off in September. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by 4th&Five

17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I don’t think AZN has even submitted for the EUA yet. Happy to blame bureaucracy, but AZN has done a good job of finding novel ways to shit the bed at almost every turn. 

I think it's effective rate was also in the low 80's or high 70's.  Pfizer, Moderna and J&J are all 95+.

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Once everyone who wants a vaccine has one, most people are going to burn their masks, myself included. This 2022 shit is nonsense. Once everyone has a chance to get the shot, I won't be taking precautions for anti vaxxers or the nerds and doomers who are enjoying the pandemic.

Yeah, I tend to agree with this perspective, but there are going to be a lot of gaps in the vax coverage, not just anti-vaxxers.  We only have data on 16+ right now, the youngest ongoing studies I am aware of are 12+. There are still questions around special populations such as immunocompromised, and pregnant women. There are going to be a lot of susceptible individuals remaining.  I not really excited about finding out what happens when schools, in particular elementary schools, loosen up on mask wearing and distancing and you got a petri dish of unvaccinated elementary school aged children. We know that disease is less severe, I think it is less transmissible, but until we have vaccines approved for universal vaccination, we're not totally out of the woods.  

4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I think it's effective rate was also in the low 80's or high 70's.  Pfizer, Moderna and J&J are all 95+.

Depends which dosing regimen you look at, the planned regimen, or the low dose/high dose series that they dumb fucked their way into with an erroneous viral activity assay. The latter hit 90% IIRC.  Write up on Oxford/AZN efficacy data: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/12/09/the-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-efficacy-data

Edited January 21, 2021 by Anastasis

Depends which dosing regimen you look at, the planned regimen, or the low dose/high dose series that they dumb fucked their way into with an erroneous viral activity assay. The latter hit 90% IIRC. 

Yeah, the original planned doses were something like 60 percent effective. They accidentally discovered that lighter dosages were up to 90 percent effective, witched raised the overall average to 70. The initial sample is small and I’m not sure if that was ever followed up on. I’d hope it was.

They also paused their US trial and resumed in November, when Pfizer and Modena were punishing data. They didn’t have full trial data to submit for a while longer (not even sure they do now?) You can’t blame the federal bureaucracy for AstraZeneca not having its shit together.

Yeah, I tend to agree with this perspective, but there are going to be a lot of gaps in the vax coverage, not just anti-vaxxers.  We only have data on 16+ right now, the youngest ongoing studies I am aware of are 12+. There are still questions around special populations such as immunocompromised, and pregnant women. There are going to be a lot of susceptible individuals remaining.  I not really excited about finding out what happens when schools, in particular elementary schools, loosen up on mask wearing and distancing and you got a petri dish of unvaccinated elementary school aged children. We know that disease is less severe, I think it is less transmissible, but until we have vaccines approved for universal vaccination, we're not totally out of the woods.  

The kids are an angle I didn't consider and a good point. I'm not really worried about kids in general and I have two of them. It's a what 1 in 30,000 death rate for kids? But you do have immunocompromised and kids with pre-existing conditions.

My understanding, anecdotally, is that some doctors are already starting to refer pregnant women for the vax or will be soon.

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

The kids are an angle I didn't consider and a good point. I'm not really worried about kids in general and I have two of them. It's a what 1 in 30,000 death rate for kids? But you do have immunocompromised and kids with pre-existing conditions.

My understanding, anecdotally, is that some doctors are already starting to refer pregnant women for the vax or will be soon.

As for kids, do we know if they are seeing any long terms impact? If you’re generally healthy and under 50-55, the real problem is heart or lung damage not death.

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The kids are an angle I didn't consider and a good point. I'm not really worried about kids in general and I have two of them. It's a what 1 in 30,000 death rate for kids? But you do have immunocompromised and kids with pre-existing conditions.

My understanding, anecdotally, is that some doctors are already starting to refer pregnant women for the vax or will be soon.

Yeah, I am not super worried about the kids either, I got two in elementary, neither with any real health issues that change my calculus.  But I am not sure that schools are going to be able to go back to normal. There is definitely going to be some tension though, as the rest of the world starts a return to normal, the school might be still need to continue to use some of the measures that have gotten them this far.   

Yes, there are some obgyn offering it to their patients. 
 

I still think if there is enough data for the UK to say it is safe, there is enough data for us to agree with that position or specifically state why we think everyone in the UK is going to turn in to mutants. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by UT_OB1

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As for kids, do we know if they are seeing any long terms impact?

I would suggest that basically 9 months into this we don't have a firm grasp of the long-term impacts at all.  Outside of anecdotal stuff, or early wave pandemic, we have very short follow-up. I don't think that kids are showing signals of significant and wide spread long term impact, but I don't think that we have enough information to really say definitively. 

28 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 Once everyone has a chance to get the shot, I won't be taking precautions for anti vaxxers or the nerds and doomers who are enjoying the pandemic.

There's a finish line in sight whether the media and the "new normal" geeks like it or not.

 

Do we know the status or timeline for clinical trials for kids? I don't know if there's been a lot of conversation around that.

26 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I think it's effective rate was also in the low 80's or high 70's.  Pfizer, Moderna and J&J are all 95+.

To be clear, I don't think we have seen the Phase III data from J&J to know the efficacy at this point. Should be by end of month, though. 

Count me in the “fuck wearing masks once we are all vaccinated” camp.

I'm not a scientist or in anyway knowledgeable about viruses but I did read an article saying that at somepoint once enough people get the vaccine and or get the virus and it kills a lot of the weak that covid will be no different than the common cold.