COVID-19 vaccine discussion

When does the kid data come out? End of may? That will increase demand 

Load up carts full of JNJ and walk through through the bar districts handing out drink coupons for people that will take the shot. 

So a neighbor down at the bay is a medical researcher.  Works specifically on developing new meds.  Actually did some early studies on mRNA vaccine theory.  
 

We hardly ever see him because our schedules don’t line up.  As in 1-2 times a year. But he’s a smart guy.  
 

Anyway, my wife was down there during last week to meet a contractor and he stopped by on his way back into town.  He then proceeded to tell her that the research was “clear” that anyone under “around 35” should get J&J because of the “huge likelihood” of complications from Pfizer and Moderna “at the 20-30 year mark.”

If he wasn’t a medical researcher who knew a lot about this stuff I would just laugh.  But he is.  So does anyone know what the fuck he’s talking about?  My googling and medical research journal searches turned up nothing. 

35 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So a neighbor down at the bay is a medical researcher.  Works specifically on developing new meds.  Actually did some early studies on mRNA vaccine theory.  
 

We hardly ever see him because our schedules don’t line up.  As in 1-2 times a year. But he’s a smart guy.  
 

Anyway, my wife was down there during last week to meet a contractor and he stopped by on his way back into town.  He then proceeded to tell her that the research was “clear” that anyone under “around 35” should get J&J because of the “huge likelihood” of complications from Pfizer and Moderna “at the 20-30 year mark.”

If he wasn’t a medical researcher who knew a lot about this stuff I would just laugh.  But he is.  So does anyone know what the fuck he’s talking about?  My googling and medical research journal searches turned up nothing. 

Where can we find his podcast?  Or subscribe to his newsletter?  

I know lots of "medical researchers" too.  The overwhelming majority are unsurprised at the success of the mRNA vaccines and are extremely hopeful that the technology will continue to identify treatments for a host of illnesses.    They also wouldn't hesitate to give it to their kids.

There are kooks in every line of work.

Edited April 11, 2021 by SizzleChest

20-30 years to cause problems would be rather rare in the world of vaccines and medications, wouldn't it?

1 minute ago, SizzleChest said:

Where can we find his podcast?  Or subscribe to his newsletter?  

I know lots of "medical researchers" too.  The overwhelming majority are unsurprised at the success of the mRNA vaccines and are extremely hopeful that the technology will continue to identify treatments for a host of illnesses.    They also wouldn't hesitate to give it to their kids.

There are kooks in every line of work.

He is far from a kook.  He works at UTMB specifically on new meds.  He’s also not “one of those guys.”   That’s the only reason I even brought it up.  And like I said, he actually researched mRNA vaccines from a “positive” standpoint.  He knows a lot about them. 

It’s not like he’s my sidepiece’s acupuncturist and yoga instructor.  

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

20-30 years to cause problems would be rather rare in the world of vaccines and medications, wouldn't it?

Yeah, that might be my wife summarizing.  I guess I just need to figure out a way to ask him.  Was hoping someone on here knew where that was coming from since if he says it it’s usually pretty solid. 

9 minutes ago, kevwun said:

20-30 years to cause problems would be rather rare in the world of vaccines and medications, wouldn't it?

Yes, and UTMB "medical researcher" may have his own theories (as most researchers and practicing physicians have), but with nothing to back it up and a vague warning, it's hard to take it seriously.  Particularly when it sounds like he's comfortable espousing these warnings to non-scientist neighbors.

For the sake of argument, let's say his theory is true in some form. In 20-30 years, what if there's already a solution to whatever clinical manifestations that may be presented?  

Theories that won't manifest for 20-30 to years have a way of being wrong more times that not.  The guy who sold me my flying car told me that.

And distrust in one vaccine or vaccine type leads to distrust in all vaccines amongst the unwashed.

20 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Yes, and UTMB "medical researcher" may have his own theories (as most researchers and practicing physicians have), but with nothing to back it up and a vague warning, it's hard to take it seriously.  Particularly when it sounds like he's comfortable espousing these warnings to non-scientist neighbors.

For the sake of argument, let's say his theory is true in some form. In 20-30 years, what if there's already a solution to whatever clinical manifestations that may be presented?  

Theories that won't manifest for 20-30 to years have a way of being wrong more times that not.  The guy who sold me my flying car told me that.

And distrust in one vaccine or vaccine type leads to distrust in all vaccines amongst the unwashed.

Man, calm down. I was just wondering if anyone here knew what he was talking about.  I didn’t suggest anyone go break fridges full of Pfizer vaccine, and neither did he.  

I've heard this before, that Moderna > Pfizer. What's the reason for that?

I've heard this before, that Moderna > Pfizer. What's the reason for that?

They’re virtually identical. I’ve also heard Pfizer is a bit better but when you look at the data, with either vaccine, 100% stay out of the hospital and stay alive.

The same 100% success rate applies to J&J as well. Their lower efficacy rate is due to their testing being done at the peak of the virus when there was a much greater chance of getting COVID. The other two tested much earlier in the pandemic. If they’d tested at the same time, they’d have that 65% rate as well.

17 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Man, calm down. I was just wondering if anyone here knew what he was talking about.  I didn’t suggest anyone go break fridges full of Pfizer vaccine, and neither did he.  

I'm calm.  I just hear this some doctor or someone who knows said this or that all the time and it's just bullshit excuses for not considering vaccination.  It's usually some political motivation or social-media generated hysteria.  Or a podcast involving a Weinstein and the phrase "well, you know, we just don't know".  These dipshits are not trying to fight the fucking battle right in front of us, they've jumped ahead to fighting the ones in 2050 to "inform their listeners and help them think about it".

If you've looked and can't find anything online to corroborate what Dr. Pretty Solid told you, then there's no point to this discussion rn.  If you are able to corral him and get something concrete, then by all means, post it here when you find out.

40 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

I'm calm.  I just hear this some doctor or someone who knows said this or that all the time and it's just bullshit excuses for not considering vaccination.  It's usually some political motivation or social-media generated hysteria.  Or a podcast involving a Weinstein and the phrase "well, you know, we just don't know".  These dipshits are not trying to fight the fucking battle right in front of us, they've jumped ahead to fighting the ones in 2050 to "inform their listeners and help them think about it".

If you've looked and can't find anything online to corroborate what Dr. Pretty Solid told you, then there's no point to this discussion rn.  If you are able to corral him and get something concrete, then by all means, post it here when you find out.

This.  Here is the operative statement:

Quote

because of the “huge likelihood” of complications from Pfizer and Moderna “at the 20-30 year mark.”

A statement like that is not based on a vague concept.  It implies that some sort of SPECIFIC complications are expected at a pretty SPECIFIC timeframe (that is, not immediately, not in a few months, but rather in 20-30 years).  Until there's some statement as to what type of complication he's talking about, and why it would manifest at that point in time....that's vague fear-mongering bullshit, and if he really IS any sort of expert in the field, it's a wildly irresponsible thing for him to say.

"I'd avoid wearing your seatbelt, because if you are in an accident, there's a huge likelihood of complications 20-30 years later."

"If you have an infection, I'd avoid taking antibiotics, because there's a huge likelihood of complications 20-30 years later."

Hot garbage.

 

Edited April 11, 2021 by Brisketexan

They’re virtually identical. I’ve also heard Pfizer is a bit better but when you look at the data, with either vaccine, 100% stay out of the hospital and stay alive.

The same 100% success rate applies to J&J as well. Their lower efficacy rate is due to their testing being done at the peak of the virus when there was a much greater chance of getting COVID. The other two tested much earlier in the pandemic. If they’d tested at the same time, they’d have that 65% rate as well.

The mRNA shots have proven efficacy into the 90 percent range in real world deployment.

Here are the possible side effects https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243    

Paragraph 2 is the pertinent one for long-term safety. There is some risk for inflammation and autoimmunity (ie. autoimmune diseases). The risk seems to be based on the TLR7 (toll-like receptor 7) and corresponding interferon response. (We have an expert on TLR research on this board). The TLR7 reaction can be mitigated by modifying the nucleotides of the mRNA. Contrary to the vaccine developer's opinion, there is no evidence that injection of 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine has long-term consequences and modifying of the nucleotides can mitigate the risk, anyway. Both Pfizer and Moderna have modified their nucleotides. All of the uridines in Moderna’s mRNAs are modified to evade the normal immune response triggered when toll life receptors—specifically TLR7 and TLR8—recognize uridine and activate an interferon response.

Safety

The requirement for safety in modern prophylactic vaccines is extremely stringent because the vaccines are administered to healthy individuals. Because the manufacturing process for mRNA does not require toxic chemicals or cell cultures that could be contaminated with adventitious viruses, mRNA production avoids the common risks associated with other vaccine platforms, including live virus, viral vectors, inactivated virus and subunit protein vaccines. Furthermore, the short manufacturing time for mRNA presents few opportunities to introduce contaminating microorganisms. In vaccinated people, the theoretical risks of infection or integration of the vector into host cell DNA are not a concern for mRNA. For the above reasons, mRNA vaccines have been considered a relatively safe vaccine format.

Several different mRNA vaccines have now been tested from phase I to IIb clinical studies and have been shown to be safe and reasonably well tolerated (Tables 2, 3). However, recent human trials have demonstrated moderate and in rare cases severe injection site or systemic reactions for different mRNA platforms^22,91. Potential safety concerns that are likely to be evaluated in future preclinical and clinical studies include local and systemic inflammation, the biodistribution and persistence of expressed immunogen, stimulation of auto-reactive antibodies and potential toxic effects of any non-native nucleotides and delivery system components. A possible concern could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms^54,166 induce potent type I interferon responses, which have been associated not only with inflammation but also potentially with autoimmunity^167,168. Thus, identification of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken. Another potential safety issue could derive from the presence of extracellular RNA during mRNA vaccination. Extracellular naked RNA has been shown to increase the permeability of tightly packed endothelial cells and may thus contribute to oedema¹⁶⁹. Another study showed that extracellular RNA promoted blood coagulation and pathological thrombus formation¹⁷⁰. Safety will therefore need continued evaluation as different mRNA modalities and delivery systems are utilized for the first time in humans and are tested in larger patient populations.

Today, Texans 50-64 reached 50% first-shots and Texans over 65 are past 65% first shots.  Everyone else doesn't have long to wait, Texans 16 and over should reach the 50% mark by April 26th.  It may be a few days later because of the J&J screw up, but it's right around the corner.

At the current rate, we will hit 70% of first shots for all Texans over 16 by May 24th, although I suspect we will see vaccine hesitancy before then.  Sometime in May you are going to see vaccine in stock everywhere.

7 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Man, calm down. I was just wondering if anyone here knew what he was talking about.  I didn’t suggest anyone go break fridges full of Pfizer vaccine, and neither did he.  

Not sure why you thought anyone on this board would know anything about your neighbors seemingly wack theory.

4 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

Today, Texans 50-64 reached 50% first-shots and Texans over 65 are past 65% first shots.  Everyone else doesn't have long to wait, Texans 16 and over should reach the 50% mark by April 26th.  It may be a few days later because of the J&J screw up, but it's right around the corner.

At the current rate, we will hit 70% of first shots for all Texans over 16 by May 24th, although I suspect we will see vaccine hesitancy before then.  Sometime in May you are going to see vaccine in stock everywhere.

Vaccine stock is everywhere right now 

3 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Not sure why you thought anyone on this board would know anything about your neighbors seemingly wack theory.

I’ll report back when I’m 60 and let you guys know! 

13 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Not sure why you thought anyone on this board would know anything about your neighbors seemingly wack theory.

Because I forgot this was a board full of 17-year-old third graders.

21 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

I'm calm.  I just hear this some doctor or someone who knows said this or that all the time and it's just bullshit excuses for not considering vaccination.  It's usually some political motivation or social-media generated hysteria.  Or a podcast involving a Weinstein and the phrase "well, you know, we just don't know".  These dipshits are not trying to fight the fucking battle right in front of us, they've jumped ahead to fighting the ones in 2050 to "inform their listeners and help them think about it".

His point was nowhere near "don't get vaccinated," it was that the younger folks should take J&J because of something that happens a long way down the road with Pfizer and Moderna.  And while that sounded crazy to me, he's not a crazy guy, a dumb guy, or a guy who listens to Glenn Beck, so I thought it might be worth asking if any of the actual people on here who know things happened to know what he was talking about.  And, FWIW, he's been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine - he specifically told my wife that it didn't matter if you were (like him) over 60 because you won't live long enough to care. 

And, again FWIW, I'm the guy who pulled every favor I could find to get my whole family vaccinated in January, and said a page or two back that I would give my teenage kids whatever vaccine was there "the millisecond it was available."  This is not an attempt at anti-vaccine propaganda.

20 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

A statement like that is not based on a vague concept.  It implies that some sort of SPECIFIC complications are expected at a pretty SPECIFIC timeframe (that is, not immediately, not in a few months, but rather in 20-30 years). 

 

Exactly.  So I asked if anyone knew what he was talking about.  There are some actual experts mixed in here among the people who took Cliff Clavin as an inspiration and mentor.

Here's the thing - for the guy's story to be true, it puts two choices on the table, only one of which can be true, each of which seems exceedingly unlikely.  Either millions of people know about this Pfizer/Moderna issue and all collectively decided to say "fuck it, let's just roll the dice, don't tell anyone" or this guy has some super secret insider info that millions of people who were involved in the development of this vaccine are unaware of. 

1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

His point was nowhere near "don't get vaccinated," it was that the younger folks should take J&J because of something that happens a long way down the road with Pfizer and Moderna.  And while that sounded crazy to me, he's not a crazy guy, a dumb guy, or a guy who listens to Glenn Beck, so I thought it might be worth asking if any of the actual people on here who know things happened to know what he was talking about.  And, FWIW, he's been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine - he specifically told my wife that it didn't matter if you were (like him) over 60 because you won't live long enough to care. 

And, again FWIW, I'm the guy who pulled every favor I could find to get my whole family vaccinated in January, and said a page or two back that I would give my teenage kids whatever vaccine was there "the millisecond it was available."  This is not an attempt at anti-vaccine propaganda.

Exactly.  So I asked if anyone knew what he was talking about.  There are some actual experts mixed in here among the people who took Cliff Clavin as an inspiration and mentor.

Dude, fuck off already

He must be really fat if he doesn't expect to live to be 80.

On 4/11/2021 at 10:55 AM, Liquor and Poker said:

Yeah, that might be my wife summarizing.  I guess I just need to figure out a way to ask him.  Was hoping someone on here knew where that was coming from since if he says it it’s usually pretty solid. 

You should have led with this, so I'd know to disregard everything that comes afterward...at least in my experience.

Did your wife not follow-up immediately with "What 20-30 year issues?". 

FWIW, I can see the future. In 20-30 years someone's wife will be saying "I told you so" regardless of what the outcome is.

22 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

"If you have an infection, I'd avoid taking antibiotics, because there's a huge likelihood of complications 20-30 years later."

Yeah, that person also sells Gold and 120 day food supplies, right?

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, that person also sells Gold and 120 day food supplies, right?

Stay the FUCK away from my 5 gallon bucket of dehydrated mashed potatoes, asshole.

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, that person also sells Gold and 120 day food supplies, right?

Don't forget the Vitamin R.

2 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Here's the thing - for the guy's story to be true, it puts two choices on the table, only one of which can be true, each of which seems exceedingly unlikely.  Either millions of people know about this Pfizer/Moderna issue and all collectively decided to say "fuck it, let's just roll the dice, don't tell anyone" or this guy has some super secret insider info that millions of people who were involved in the development of this vaccine are unaware of. 

“millions of people” were involved in the development of the vaccine?

58 minutes ago, XYZ said:

“millions of people” were involved in the development of the vaccine?

Not directly obviously, but are aware of how it works, what the ramifications would be, etc., yes? Also a bit of hyperbole that I could have stated a bit differently, agreed.

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

“millions of people” were involved in the development of the vaccine?

It takes a village. A very large village.

Did your wife not follow-up immediately with "What 20-30 year issues?". 

How about pics of the wife? Y’all are slipping

On 3/31/2021 at 2:58 PM, Liquor and Poker said:

The millisecond it is available.

Same.  17 yo daughter got first dose Friday, 15 yo son will as soon as it’s approved.  Anyone who skips it is a Dumas.  The variants coming down the pike say hi!

52 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Anyone who skips it is a Dumas.

The UT campus covid vax clinic I regularly volunteer at will be celebrating 100,000 individuals vaccinated this week. Hook’em 

Woman at work refuses to get vaccinated because she is in her child-bearing years. 

Bitch, you're on the downhill side of 35 and still single, and I've thought you were pregnant for the past 5 years.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Deej

24 minutes ago, Deej said:

Woman at work refuses to get vaccinated because she is in her child-bearing years. 

Bitch, you're on the downhill side of 35 and still single, and I've thought you were pregnant for the past 5 years.

Make me one promise. Tell her those exact words at work tomorrow. Please, I've never asked anything of you before.

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Make me one promise. Tell her those exact words at work tomorrow. Please, I've never asked anything of you before.

If I wake up in the morning in the mood to be fired, then you'll get your wish. 

30 minutes ago, Deej said:

If I wake up in the morning in the mood to be fired, then you'll get your wish. 

So you have a fat boss?

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So you have a fat boss?

No, but I've been warned about being too "honest". Lulz. 

Unfortunately, some reading that is now relevant to those of us in the US.  This appears to be a vector vaccine problems.  Benefits clearly outweigh risks, but I would not be surprised to see some age restrictions as in europe.  Fuck.

https://brief19.com/2021/04/12/brief

AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine Link To Dangerous Blood Clotting Disorder Looks Real And Rare. Should It Be Avoided? Maybe In Young Adults In Some Circumstances

The AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine appears to be causing a rare immune reaction that can cause dangerous blood clots. The upshot is that despite this, for most adults in most situations, the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine remains far safer than risking a covid-19 illness. But a deep dive is in order, as this is the first time that any complexity surrounding vaccine choice has genuinely come up. 

Quote

US recommends ‘pause’ for J&J vaccine over clot reports

By ZEKE MILLER

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is recommending a “pause” in administration of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to investigate reports of potentially dangerous blood clots.

In a joint statement Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration said they were investigating clots in six women that occurred in the days after vaccination. The clots were observed along with reduced platelet counts — making the usual treatment for blood clots, the blood thinner heparin, potentially “dangerous.”

More than 6.8 million doses of the J&J vaccine have been administered in the U.S., the vast majority with no or mild side effects.

U.S. federal distribution channels, including mass vaccination sites, will pause the use of the J&J shot, and states and other providers are expected to follow. The other two authorized vaccines, from Moderna and Pfizer, are not affected by the pause.

CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet Wednesday to discuss the cases and the FDA has also launched an investigation into the cause of the clots and low platelet counts.

“Until that process is complete, we are recommending a pause in the use of this vaccine out of an abundance of caution,” Dr. Anne Schuchat, Principal Deputy Director of the CDC and Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research said in a joint statement.

They are recommending that people who were given the J&J vaccine who are experiencing severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain, or shortness of breath within three weeks after receiving the shot contact their health care provider.

Officials say they also want to educate vaccine providers and health professionals about the “unique treatment” required for this type of clot.

The J&J vaccine received emergency use authorization from the FDA in late February with great fanfare, with hopes that its single-dose and relatively simple storage requirements would speed vaccinations across the country. Yet the shot only makes up a small fraction of the doses administered in the U.S. as J&J has been plagued by production delays and manufacturing errors at the Baltimore plant of a contractor.

Last week the drugmaker took over the facility to scale up production in hopes of meeting its commitment to the U.S. government of providing about 100 million doses by the end of May.

Until now concern about the unusual blood clots has centered on the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which has not yet received authorization in the U.S. Last week, European regulators said they found a possible link between the shots and a very rare type of blood clot that occurs together with low blood platelets, one that seems to occur more in younger people.

The European Medicines Agency stressed that the benefits of receiving the vaccine outweigh the risks for most people. But several countries have imposed limits on who can receive the vaccine; Britain recommended that people under 30 be offered alternatives.

But the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines are made with the same technology. Leading COVID-19 vaccines train the body to recognize the spike protein that coats the outer surface of the coronavirus. But the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines use a cold virus, called an adenovirus, to carry the spike gene into the body. J&J uses a human adenovirus to create its vaccine while AstraZeneca uses a chimpanzee version.

The announcement hit U.S. stock markets immediately, with Dow futures falling almost 200 points just over two hours before the opening bell. Shares of Johnson & Johnson dropped almost 3%

https://apnews.com/article/politics-immunizations-coronavirus-pandemic-2dde2aacf486bab59844ef907a28cbce

Shit. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html#click=https://t.co/NkjtHukwHQ
 

Shit.  Not good.  A major mistake IMO

I guess it’s time for ol HemeDoc to weigh in vis a vis the clotting and platelet issues surrounding the AZ vaccine and now maybe J&J...so let me wave something shiny in front of you monkeys.

The AZ vaccine has reported a rare form of blood clots plus low platelets. ~60% involve veins of brain.  Almost all after 1st dose. 

Risk from the UK is about 1 in 250,000 people

Risk of dying: 20-25% of people with these clots have died

Approximately half of the deaths in the UK (11 of 19) were under age 50. 

The benefits of the AZ vaccine according to regulators appear to outweigh risks in all except those less than age 30.

While blood clots occur at a certain rate in population what is unusual about these clots is the association with low platelets. Platelets help make blood clots & when platelets are low we are at risk of bleeding not clotting. 

Low platelets in context of blood clots is unusual.  This type of combination of low platelets and blood clots occurs in patients exposed to heparin (HIT).  It can also occur with hemolytic uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, and sometimes with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome.

Emerging data suggest that the mechanism of the clots may involve antibodies generated (presumably by the vaccine - most likely the adenovirus vector) that target platelet factor 4 (PF4), similar to the process that happens in some people after exposure to heparin (HIT)

Facebook "Doctors" now have all the fodder they need. Fuck.

3 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

Emerging data suggest that the mechanism of the clots may involve antibodies generated (presumably by the vaccine - most likely the adenovirus vector) that target platelet factor 4 (PF4), similar to the process that happens in some people after exposure to heparin (HIT)

Is there an association between adenovirus infections and thrombotic thrombocytopenia?  Or any other common viral infection?  JNJ and AZN are using different adenovirus vectors, one chimp and one human. Not good Bob.

A Brit friend posted the blood clot stats. IIRC, the AZ vaccine resulted in 3 in 1 million. Birth control pills resulted in 1 in 10,000. Life in general resulted in 1 in 2,000.

15 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Life in general resulted in 1 in 2,000.

We need to end life to be safe. It's the only way.