COVID-19 vaccine discussion

I am going to be drunk in Belize or New Orleans a day after me and the wife's vaccine has kicked in.

So how many days after the first shot does it take for the antibodies to kick in?

1 hour ago, midtown said:

Going to be a Merry Christmas in the Hpara759 family.  $$$$

Here is the FDA briefing if it hasn't been posted

https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download

Nice curve

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Just now, XYZ said:

So how many days after the first shot does it take for the antibodies to kick in?

Last I've read is you have SOME protection after 10 days. Still need the 2nd one to have "full" protection. Probably about 6-7 weeks total time. 

edit function dead.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/YZmzSdY/Screenshot-2020-12-15-085405.jpg[/img]

 

Based on the # of vaccines availability schedule and the increasing COVID infection rates, has an expert taken a guess on when the vaccine will materially impact the infection rates? I know that its unknown if the vaccine prevents COVID but protecting people from feeling sick should stop some people from getting tested because they feel fine.

Or is the conventional wisdom to be conservative and assume that we need to get through the winter months before we will see a natural drop?

18 minutes ago, XYZ said:

So how many days after the first shot does it take for the antibodies to kick in?

It isn't some sort of flat line of no protection and then a jump at 2 weeks and then you are protected. You will immediately make antibodies and the beneficial antibodies mature into more functional ones. So, it is probably best to think of it as a gradual increase where you develop a full repertoire in a couple of weeks. Some protection early developing into full protection in a few weeks.

Based on the # of vaccines availability schedule and the increasing COVID infection rates, has an expert taken a guess on when the vaccine will materially impact the infection rates? I know that its unknown if the vaccine prevents COVID but protecting people from feeling sick should stop some people from getting tested because they feel fine.
Or is the conventional wisdom to be conservative and assume that we need to get through the winter months before we will see a natural drop?

Everything I've picked up on Twitter and general news is second quarter

7 minutes ago, midtown said:

22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Based on the # of vaccines availability schedule and the increasing COVID infection rates, has an expert taken a guess on when the vaccine will materially impact the infection rates? I know that its unknown if the vaccine prevents COVID but protecting people from feeling sick should stop some people from getting tested because they feel fine.
Or is the conventional wisdom to be conservative and assume that we need to get through the winter months before we will see a natural drop?

Everything I've picked up on Twitter and general news is second quarter

Yeah, from what I've seen, the end of the winter spike and the beginning of early herd immunity will be pretty close together -- think March or so, give or take a few weeks.

Scheduled to get mine tomorrow.

20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Based on the # of vaccines availability schedule and the increasing COVID infection rates, has an expert taken a guess on when the vaccine will materially impact the infection rates? I know that its unknown if the vaccine prevents COVID but protecting people from feeling sick should stop some people from getting tested because they feel fine.

Or is the conventional wisdom to be conservative and assume that we need to get through the winter months before we will see a natural drop?

Washington's IHME has a projection:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Using that model, deaths start to drop in February.  By March 1st deaths are around 1300/day with the vax vs 2000/day without.  By April 1 we are around 400/day vs 1300/day without.  Universal masking could really cut death down in January if implemented now.

Infections follow the same Feb/Mar drop.  The projected infection rate is cut in half by April 1st.

Current projections show a max strain on our healthcare system in late January.

12 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

I’ll feel like a man with a 12 inch dong.

It feels great, highly recommended. 

How do these people work in medicine? This technology has been worked on for ten years going back to SARS. The only part that was compressed was running stage trials in parallel. Major side effects would show within two months and we're past that for most participants. The vaccine is flushed from your body in weeks only leaving the immune response. Playing cards with my sister's kids.

Well, most of medical people are not scientists.

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

So how many days after the first shot does it take for the antibodies to kick in?

~28.

30 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Washington's IHME has a projection:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Using that model, deaths start to drop in February.  By March 1st deaths are around 1300/day with the vax vs 2000/day without.  By April 1 we are around 400/day vs 1300/day without.  Universal masking could really cut death down in January if implemented now.

Infections follow the same Feb/Mar drop.  The projected infection rate is cut in half by April 1st.

Current projections show a max strain on our healthcare system in late January.

 

I posted on the CR yesterday that I expect to see cases way down by March-ish next year and society pretty much back to normal by Memorial Day, maybe with occasional local flareups requiring brief measures. I think that model looks pretty good, maybe even a bit conservative.

Back of napkin math. By the end of February

- 60 million vaccinated, mostly healthcare workers who are high-risk and generally socially mobile (IE spreaders)

- around 25 million documented cases giving natural immunity. 

It's anyone's guess how many undocumented cases we have had. Obviously the 10x number thrown around earlier is way high (we'd have herd immunity by now if so). But let's just say it's 2x, meaning 50 million have had it, you're at 110 million with immunity (60 vax 50 got the rona). That's already more than 1/3 of the adult population with immunity via vaccine or having had the virus. That's going to be enough to significantly push cases down. 70% is the herd immunity number, but even 30% is going to start putting strong downward pressure on the numbers. Especially when the people who will have immunity by then will skew hard towards the parts of society that spread the virus.

I'm guessing by March we're going to be around the low point of the whole pandemic in deaths per day. Couple more months of vaccinations after that, weather warming up, and summer should look pretty normal-ish.

Edited December 15, 2020 by BradInATX

My hope for this vaccine and disease is two fold (somewhat sarcastic and theoritical)

1.  Many companies, countries, airlines, etc only allow those who have taken the vaccine to be allowed to do certain things.  They could single handidly stop the anti-vax movement from banning non vacs from Walmart or on FB.

2.  That anti-vaxxers who refuse to take it still get it and die except for those who can not take it.

Edited December 15, 2020 by midtown

47 minutes ago, midtown said:

2.  That anti-vaxxers who refuse to take it still get it and die except for those who can not take it.

We’d be letting a whole bunch of people die if we punished those who make poor health choices and end up with the consequences.

What if the vaccine turns us all into zombies?

They eat brains, you'll be safe.

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

 

I posted on the CR yesterday that I expect to see cases way down by March-ish next year and society pretty much back to normal by Memorial Day, maybe with occasional local flareups requiring brief measures. I think that model looks pretty good, maybe even a bit conservative.

Back of napkin math. By the end of February

- 60 million vaccinated, mostly healthcare workers who are high-risk and generally socially mobile (IE spreaders)

- around 25 million documented cases giving natural immunity. 

It's anyone's guess how many undocumented cases we have had. Obviously the 10x number thrown around earlier is way high (we'd have herd immunity by now if so). But let's just say it's 2x, meaning 50 million have had it, you're at 110 million with immunity (60 vax 50 got the rona). That's already more than 1/3 of the adult population with immunity via vaccine or having had the virus. That's going to be enough to significantly push cases down. 70% is the herd immunity number, but even 30% is going to start putting strong downward pressure on the numbers. Especially when the people who will have immunity by then will skew hard towards the parts of society that spread the virus.

I'm guessing by March we're going to be around the low point of the whole pandemic in deaths per day. Couple more months of vaccinations after that, weather warming up, and summer should look pretty normal-ish.

You are discounting the overlap of people getting it that had an undocumented case, or had a documented case but got vaccinated anyway. Not sure how to estimate the size of this population. Unless we do antibody testing prior to, and don’t allow vax for anyone with antibodies, there will be some level of overlap. 

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

You are discounting the overlap of people getting it that had an undocumented case, or had a documented case but got vaccinated anyway. Not sure how to estimate the size of this population. Unless we do antibody testing prior to, and don’t allow vax for anyone with antibodies, there will be some level of overlap. 

 

I considered it, but you're talking about a shift from 110 million to 100 million. And probably less because of the self-sorting of those who have already had it. Some will skew anti-vax and some who have had it will go to the back of the line voluntarily. Not a substantial change.

What is the general consensus on getting kids vaccinated. I have a 12 year old boy and my wife and I aren’t really sure about how to proceed with him. He’s healthy and will most likely not even realize he has it if/when he ever gets Covid 19.

Don’t think kids have gone through trials yet but 12 is on the cusp in terms of the severity increasing I believe. But it’s going to be a while until small children are figured out I believe.

42 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I considered it, but you're talking about a shift from 110 million to 100 million. And probably less because of the self-sorting of those who have already had it. Some will skew anti-vax and some who have had it will go to the back of the line voluntarily. Not a substantial change.

Here is an interesting story on this topic.  It was estimated that 13.5% of the population in Houston had been infected by September.  I would have to imagine that number has increased significantly in the months that have followed. 

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-covid-19-antibody-survey-results/285-31336640-5381-4258-a369-f5a236c1c0ba

HOUSTON — A survey by the Houston Health Department shows the number of Houstonians who've been infected with COVID-19 could be four times higher than their database shows. 

They did antibody tests in early September on nearly 700 volunteers from 420 homes chosen at random across the city. 

Based on the percentage of people who tested positive for the antibody, experts estimate approximately 250,000 residents -- or 13.5% -- had already been infected by September. At the time, only 57,000 COVID-19 cases had been confirmed through viral testing.

The survey also turned up other interesting results:

• More women than men had the antibody
• More young people had the antibody
• More Hispanics and Black people tested positive for the antibody than non-Hispanic White volunteers.
•  A higher proportion -- or 18% -- of people with COVID-19 antibodies lived in high positivity rate areas compared to 10% in lower positivity areas.

The survey was conducted by the Houston Health Department, alongside the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rice University, and Baylor College of Medicine.

"If anybody was positive, we will go back and test them in January if they agree to be tested,” Survey Co-Director Dr. Loren Hopkins said.

They’ll also do another random sample in January for phase two of the program.

“Along with tracking virus spread, the survey will provide insight on how much antibodies were made and how long they last over a 4-month interval (short-term duration) in blood circulation. In addition, the survey may help identify short-term immunity after infection,” said Dr. Pedro Piedra, professor of molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine

27 minutes ago, Hate said:

What is the general consensus on getting kids vaccinated. I have a 12 year old boy and my wife and I aren’t really sure about how to proceed with him. He’s healthy and will most likely not even realize he has it if/when he ever gets Covid 19.

I don’t think minors will be allowed (the emergency approval does to 16 I think actually) until more testing is done. 

I think most of the CDC initial protocols on who gets it/when they get it has children under 14 in the last 1 or 2 categories.  So he wouldn't be eligible until early Spring at the earliest.  So you'll have plenty of time to make the decision.  

We're quite hesitant for our two daughters but they're so far down the list, we have plenty of time to get over it.  I have a few underlying conditions with heart and lungs but have no problem waiting my turn while the people truly at risk go first, second, and third.  

I am still shocked to see there is still about 1/3rd of U.S. adults who say they won't take the vaccine.  That's insane to me.  A nation of pill-popping fatties who'll shove anything made by a for-profit corporation into their bodies as fast as they can and in mass quantities, a la the Coneheads.  But oh no, not this cockamamie vaccine which has been the nearly singular focus of the world's greatest scientific minds for a year.  Not directed at anyone on this thread, and no CR, but you can't scream at me how impressive this Warp Speed vaccine program has gone and then insist you're not taking it though that it's for other people.  If it's dangerous, than all Warp Speed did was create a deadly vaccine in record time.  We made the Hydrogen Bomb in less time.  

If you get Covid-19 and die while waiting your proper turn for the vaccine, that will be a horrific tragedy that will echo for generations.  If you are in the queue for the vaccine and refuse it and then go back about your daily life without giving fuck one and then get Covid-19...don't be surprised when nobody gives fuck one about your suffering. 

"Let's all gather around and make sure this poor motorcyclist who wasn't wearing a helmet and was popping wheelies on IH-35 is comfortable and cared for with our best and brightest doctors, nurses, and treatments." ---said no hospital ever  

27 minutes ago, Hate said:

Here is an interesting story on this topic.  It was estimated that 13.5% of the population in Houston had been infected by September.  I would have to imagine that number has increased significantly in the months that have followed. 

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-covid-19-antibody-survey-results/285-31336640-5381-4258-a369-f5a236c1c0ba

HOUSTON — A survey by the Houston Health Department shows the number of Houstonians who've been infected with COVID-19 could be four times higher than their database shows. 

They did antibody tests in early September on nearly 700 volunteers from 420 homes chosen at random across the city. 

Based on the percentage of people who tested positive for the antibody, experts estimate approximately 250,000 residents -- or 13.5% -- had already been infected by September. At the time, only 57,000 COVID-19 cases had been confirmed through viral testing.

The survey also turned up other interesting results:

• More women than men had the antibody
• More young people had the antibody
• More Hispanics and Black people tested positive for the antibody than non-Hispanic White volunteers.
•  A higher proportion -- or 18% -- of people with COVID-19 antibodies lived in high positivity rate areas compared to 10% in lower positivity areas.

The survey was conducted by the Houston Health Department, alongside the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rice University, and Baylor College of Medicine.

"If anybody was positive, we will go back and test them in January if they agree to be tested,” Survey Co-Director Dr. Loren Hopkins said.

They’ll also do another random sample in January for phase two of the program.

“Along with tracking virus spread, the survey will provide insight on how much antibodies were made and how long they last over a 4-month interval (short-term duration) in blood circulation. In addition, the survey may help identify short-term immunity after infection,” said Dr. Pedro Piedra, professor of molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine

 

Houston has about double the total cases today (300k) vs. September (150k). So assuming HHD's work was decent originally, we're at 27%. 

I would lower that number a bit, because it seems that doctors have gotten better at diagnosing Covid vs. other things. But even a floor of 20% lines up with the numbers I came up with in my other post. 20% of the population is about 60 million. Another 60 million in vaccines by March would get us to 40% of the population.

If you believe some of the data showing that pre-pubescent kids don't catch or spread it nearly as much as adults, which I do, it's more important to look at the above-14 population, which is about 250 million. If we assume 30 million doses per month at 90% efficacy, and that 20% of those vaccinations were useless/redundant because the person already had Covid, then here are the percentages of the population that will have immunity by month

Jan: 28.6%
Feb: 37.3%
March: 45.9%
April: 54.6%
May: 63.2%
June: 71.8% (at estimated herd immunity).

Assuming we are pushing out all 30 million vaccinations per month, we should be near 40% immunity be end of February which should be enough to bring our numbers way down, adding about 9% per month. 

I guess the million dollar question is whether or not we'll be able to push all 30 million vaccines out as we get them. You'd assume that will slow down after the first few months.

Edited December 15, 2020 by BradInATX

Also how the fuck has ~20% of the population already had Covid? Even if we just take the actual confirmed cases, 13.5% of the country has had a positive test. I know like five people who have had it and they're all several circles removed from mine (in-laws and friends of friends).

15 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

I can’t wait to get it. I’ll feel like a man with super powers and a 12 inch dong. I’ll wear a giant name tag that reads “vaccinated” everywhere I go with a chin diaper mask just to meet the legal requirements. I’ll also book a few flights just for fun. I cannot wait for these shackles to come off, with one exception: I really don’t want to go back to the office. That’s going to suck.

I’m middle aged and healthy, so I doubt I’ll get in the queue until this summer though. 

 

11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Also how the fuck has ~20% of the population already had Covid? Even if we just take the actual confirmed cases, 13.5% of the country has had a positive test. I know like five people who have had it and they're all several circles removed from mine (in-laws and friends of friends).

20% is probably an extremely conservative estimate

1 hour ago, Jersey Man10 said:

What if the vaccine turns us all into zombies?

Or Gremlins?

16 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Also how the fuck has ~20% of the population already had Covid? Even if we just take the actual confirmed cases, 13.5% of the country has had a positive test. I know like five people who have had it and they're all several circles removed from mine (in-laws and friends of friends).

A lot of them never even knew they had it. You know like five people who for sure had it, but I'd wager a lot more people around you have had it and didn't know themselves. 

I’d be thrilled if only 1/3 of American adults refused to take it. Because that 1/3 that self selects out I’m guessing has a higher propensity of being non maskers and are the most likely to have already had covid or to get it in the next 6 months. 
so we’d be where we need to be. 

3 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

A lot of them never even knew they had it. You know like five people who for sure had it, but I'd wager a lot more people around you have had it and didn't know themselves. 

Even using people who have confirmed tested positive, the US is at like 10-15%. That should mean I know 50+ people who have had it. There should be hundreds of people on this board who have had it.

I think the answer lies in the fact that Covid has been very stratified demographically. But it's still sort of a mindfuck.

And geographically 

Some don’t announce that they’ve been infected either, for various reasons. 

29 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’d be thrilled if only 1/3 of American adults refused to take it. Because that 1/3 that self selects out I’m guessing has a higher propensity of being non maskers and are the most likely to have already had covid or to get it in the next 6 months. 
so we’d be where we need to be. 

Whoever opts out should not receive any insurance payments, gov't assistance, etc. if they end up getting covid.  

Texas DSHS has a vaccine dashboard up.

2 hours ago, landman said:

Whoever opts out should not receive any insurance payments, gov't assistance, etc. if they end up getting covid.

I have ZERO issues with this.   There we're also some thoughts put around about the idea that if they pass another round of stimulus that only those that get vaccinated will get stimulus checks.   Sounds perfect to me

Edited December 15, 2020 by midtown

I wonder how us norms will be notified, if at all, when general availability is achieved. I’m guessing the news. Walgreens website already says they will be getting vaccines for Gen pop in 2021 and to check back. Guess I will just F5 a bunch in Feb/March. 

27 minutes ago, midtown said:

I have ZERO issues with this.   There we're also some thoughts put around about the idea that if they pass another round of stimulus that only those that get vaccinated will get stimulus checks.   Sounds perfect to me

Checks should be out before vaccines for all are rea dy to go. One age group I think will be a problem are the 18-29 group. I have spoken with a few and most seem like if they get it, well fuck it, they won't die, etc..... 

I wonder how us norms will be notified, if at all, when general availability is achieved. I’m guessing the news. Walgreens website already says they will be getting vaccines for Gen pop in 2021 and to check back. Guess I will just F5 a bunch in Feb/March. 

Get yourself a preexisting condition.

Texas DSHS has a vaccine dashboard up.

Somehow seeing that makes it that much more real.

Found out today officially that I got real Pfizer vaccine and not placebo.  I’m off to the titter.

6 hours ago, Hate said:

What is the general consensus on getting kids vaccinated. I have a 12 year old boy and my wife and I aren’t really sure about how to proceed with him. He’s healthy and will most likely not even realize he has it if/when he ever gets Covid 19.

No need to vaccinate the kids. They aren’t severely affected and we’ve seen from school openings they appear to less significant vectors of transmission. No reason to expose them. 

No need at all or no need to rush?

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

As expected.  Moderna data kicks just as much ass as Pfizer.

8 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

As expected.  Moderna data kicks just as much ass as Pfizer.

The data are pretty promising, even moreso the data on severe disease prevention. Roll it out, and hope for the best on the longer term safety data imo. Bells palsy appears to be a low frequency issue to track.  Gonna be interesting to see what happens as you scale from 10s of thousands to millions. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Anastasis

5 hours ago, landman said:

Whoever opts out should not receive any insurance payments, gov't assistance, etc. if they end up getting covid.  

I guess you’d be doing that under the premise that the pandemic is a unique situation because we treat and pay for people all day that do things against their best interests and against doctors’ orders. I’m looking at you, every single fat person in America. Oh and smokers. And alcoholics. And people with mental health issues. And people who skip cancer screening. And so on and so on.