Been thinking about this game for quite a while, and the more angles you look at it, the worse it looks for us.
A&M is absolutely capable of shutting us down the way Georgia did. Their D-line is one of the best we'll face. We have a hobbled Quinn and an O-line that repeatedly commits false starts under crowd pressure and has protection breakdowns on the right side. Bateman + Elko are going to tee off on the right side of our line (Williams/Campbell) and disrupt everything we try to do in the passing game. Without the pass we can't set up the run, and running into the teeth of A&M's interior is not going to get us anywhere. A&M's secondary doesn't hold up in coverage on the deep end, but they'll fly to the ball and kill our screen/short passing game if that's all we can execute. And we can't execute the deep shots needed to punish them even with a healthy Quinn.
On the other side of the ball, A&M has a very diverse ground game that's going to be tough to shut down. They'll use read and shotgun option to take our D-linemen out of the play and focus action on the LBs. We can cover A&M's receivers, but Reed can just pull it down and run for 8-12 yards a pop when our pass rush gets past A&M's O-line. A&M's offense is absolutely deadly on 3rd down with Reed's scrambling abilities, and that's where the game will be decided. The final factor in all of this is motivation. A&M has to win the next two games to make the playoffs. We are going to get their best on Saturday. We have already sealed a spot in the playoffs and it will be tougher to get that edge, especially with the crowd environment.
SCar and Auburn were able to beat A&M in ways we can't replicate. SCar ran over A&M with a monster RB and a QB who was dodging A&M's pass rush all night. Obviously Quinn can't do that. Auburn beat A&M by hitting deep shots and Thorne scrambling. We can't do that either.
In sum, the question isn't whether or not we'll win. It's whether or not we'll be able to keep it close.
A&M 31
UT 17
Quinn with 149 passing yards.