babysdaddy

Our BMD are not funding buyouts of Tom and his Merry band of dolts for Sark or Matt Campbell. They are funding it to hire the guy that has bad motherfucker written on his wallet. BMD tend to be a bit older and they don't have the time to wait around for a maybe if they want to enjoy another NC. They need a winner and they'll pay for it.

I don't know this to be true but she married Jeffrey in 2004. He started Intercontinental Exchange in 2000 and I'm going to guess they had a prenup/that is considered separate property. Now it may look like the $300-$800mm is their net worth but if they got a divorce, I'm guessing she wouldn't be entitle to half.

Bye gif

Eat fried chicken and bang porn stars? what segment is that?

Because of discovery? Rudy needs to be put out of his fucking misery. Whoever had the idea to force a vote on the transition, I read portions of a book by Michael Lewis called the Fifth Risk and I thought there were actual rules around transition of administrations but maybe I misremembered that. Regardless, the vote idea is a good one.

Why would Dominion not sue?

this was a great show. Wife asked me to watch it and I initially said no thanks on a chess centered show. Read a few posts on this thread and decided to give it a shot. The scene in the basement tore me up

I haven't looked but why are people assuming Halloween is the trigger event for the current caseplosion?

She's shown what, exactly? She lost her race for Governor and, reading below, she's not the reason there are runoffs in Georgia. David Shor's Postmortem That basic pattern holds for Georgia specifically? Yes. If you look at county-level returns in Georgia, it’s pretty clear that nonwhite voters, as a share of the electorate, decreased at a time when the nonwhite share of the state’s population probably increased. Relative to the electorate as a whole, nonwhite turnout fell. And then, among nonwhite voters who turned out, support for the Democratic nominee fell. That’s just not consistent with nonwhite turnout being the decisive factor. The only reason we won is that there were these very large swings toward us among college-educated white people in the Atlanta suburbs. Now, you can argue for the counterfactual — maybe Black turnout and Black support would have fallen by more if we didn’t do the organizing. That’s possible. In practice though, the empirical effectiveness of all of these election practices are vastly overestimated by people in the industry. I think people in progressive politics have a love affair with the idea of mobilization, just because it seems to promise a way of winning without ideological compromise; all we have to do is turn out all of these non-voting Democrats and then we’ll win. We don’t have to make any changes or try to appeal to Republicans. But Democrats have invested tremendously in get-out-the-vote efforts over the past decade. And I think that it’s pretty clear that none of these interventions worked particularly well. It turns out the effects of canvassing are much lower than people think. The effects of sending get-out-the-vote mail is lower than people think. The effects of these large-scale organizing programs are much less than people think. And then there’s the other problem with the mobilization theory: As education polarization increases, this truism that “if more people vote, we win” is increasingly less true. If you look at some of the county-level returns in Wisconsin, I think there’s very good evidence that the marginal nonvoters who came out this time — but not last time — leaned Republican. I think that as non-college whites become more and more conservative, the pool of nonvoters has gone from being an overwhelmingly Democratic group to relatively even. Those trends are going to continue. And frankly, if nonwhite, non-college-educated voters keep drifting away from us, it’s going to continue in another direction too.

Joe Manchin So, does this depress turnout for dems? Or is this an effort to make Rs feel like it isn't life or death to vote and depress their vote?

yes. he has to have 50% +1 vote to win. 50% minus one vote = runoff

So assuming alaska and nc, gop has 50. Even in a 50/50 split I don't think the fillibuster and court expansion happens with kamala as the tie breaker. Over/under of $250mm being spent in Georgia on these runoffs. I'm going to guess GOP gets them both. All the votes against Trump by white suburban women are going to flip back to make sure GOP serves as a brake on the dems.

wrap this bitch up tonight and let's go to the house and relax.

no idea

using the WSJ site, looks like there are 347k votes still to be counted. Of those, 61.06% would have to break towards Biden to get to a tie. Cal would need to do better than that. He need 62%, or 20k, of the votes to tie.

Of our Toss Up races, 24-year veteran Maine Sen. Susan Collins was proclaimed dead by many Republicans privately, but as of now (6 AM) has 49.5 percent of the vote with about 1/3 outstanding. Democrat Sara Gideon is at 43.6 percent, and even if she got all of the second-place votes in ranked-choice voting from Green-party-aligned independent Lisa Savage, it wouldn't be enough. One has to expect Collins could get some second-place votes to put her over the 50 percent mark. This one remains a question mark, but the trajectory all night long looks far better for Collins. If this holds, this may be the one state that breaks from the 2016 tradition, with voters electing a senator of a different party than its presidential state result.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/what-we-know-wednesday-morning-electoral-college-and-senate Looks like Senate will be 52-48 GOP. Polls were an abject abortion

I don't know why anyone thinks the Hunter stuff matters. It won't move a single voter and if it does, they were already voting for Trump regardless.

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Normally I'd agree but I think there is usually one surprise against the consensus. That surprise could also end up being Texas or South Carolina going Dem and having 53/47 Dem split.

Don't know about NC, IA, or MI. I think we end up with a 50/50 with Michigan being a surprise or 51/49 if NC stays R.

"I'm going to grow a goatee so people at least think there might be a chin under there somewhere"

they have approximately $190 Billion in cash on hand. So.....

Fucking Ignoramus Guru Herman, Toodles

Rather, no new taxes plus there are certain things people don't think the government will be good at doing. More/Larger government programs should require additional revenue through tax increases. So when a politician says something like "free healthcare for all", small government advocates get antsy because it means their taxes are going up (to the reduced spending ability of their own family) and they expect the government will run it like a shitshow.