When I see people discussing vaccination vs natural immunity, I often feel like people are treating the argument like a sporting event or a race. I believe the entire argument should be reframed. We don’t need to know which one is better, we need to know if they are adequate, and at this point we can conclusively say that both are adequate and are roughly equivalent for our end goals. We know the vaccines are generating good long-term immunity. We see that with the clinical, immune response, and booster studies. Natural immunity is producing similar results, but like the vaccines, it isn't some magic shield that will protect you from getting COVID forever. I'm certain we will see reinfections in recovered individuals as well because antibody response/immunity wanes after an infection is cleared just like after vaccination. And I think natural immunity is a lot harder to study clinically, because enrollment of applicable patient groups, selecting controls, etc is much more challenging compared to designing the same studies looking at vaccine efficacy. As such we don't have the same data that shows reinfection rate vs time from recovery like we do with the vaccines, and that might be muddling the message some.
The example I like to give is to pretend there are two firing squads. In one firing squad you put 12 soldiers on the firing line, and in the second you put ten. Are the outcomes appreciably different? This is closer to the reality of the differences between vaccinated and natural immunity.
Why our public health officials don’t recognize natural immunity is beyond me. The data is there to support that decision, and several other countries around the world are doing so. In the European Union, for example, their COVID digital certificate allows for travel and access to public places and it can be obtained from infection recovery. At the very least, people in this category should only be required to receive one mRNA shot as there has been almost no documented benefit from getting a second shot that close after the first when recovered from infection. And again, many countries around the world have adopted this policy. I think we should too, especially now that people's jobs are on the line and we are already facing significant labor and supply chain issues.
With all that being said, if you haven't had the infection and are left with the choice of the vaccine or infection, the choice clearly favors vaccination. The small added benefit from natural immunity is not worth the substantially increased risk and unknown long term effects of the actual infection.