It seems that the accepted coaching wisdom -- at least at Texas -- is to defer if you win the opening coin toss. I guess the theory is that it gives you the chance to have back-to-back possessions at the end of the first half and the start of the second. But each possession should have the same value, no matter when they happen, with the exception of limited-time possessions at the end of a half. If a team receives the opening kickoff, it is guaranteed an equal number of meaningful possessions during the game, and has a reasonable chance to get one more possession. By deferring, you are limiting yourself to an equal number of possessions at best. In games where the teams are relatively even, or where the teams both have good offenses, one extra possession may mean the difference in the game. If a team has a very good defense, it makes sense to defer because there is a good chance to force a punt and get good field position for your first drive. That doesn't really apply in the Big 12, and certainly not to Texas this year. Here are the opening drives for our games this year (without actually knowing who won the toss):
TEAM WITH BALL FIRST RESULT
1. Maryland TD
2. Tulsa Int.
3. USC TD
4. TCU FG
5. Texas (K St. game) Punt
6. OU TD
7. Texas (Baylor game) FG
8. Ok. St. TD
9. WVa FG
10. Tx. Tech TD
So, in ten games, Texas has kicked off in 8 of them, resulting in 41 points, with only one stop. Texas has received the kickoff in 2 games, resulting in 3 points. Ok. St. had 13 possessions to our 12 (excluding a drive of about a minute to end the firs half), and we lost by 3 points. In the WVa game, they had 10 possessions to our 9, again excluding possessions of a few seconds at the end of each half, and we lost by 1.
This is magnified in the OU series. Here are the opening drives in the last 10 games:
2009- OU FG
2010- OU TD
2011- OU FG
2012- OU TD
2013- TX FG
2014- TX FG
2015- OU Punt
2016- OU Missed FG
2017- TX Punt
2018- OU TD
OU has gotten the ball first 7 times; TX 3. On those drives, OU has scored 5 times with a missed FG and one punt, for a total of 26 points. (In 2012 the extra point was blocked.) TX has 2 FG's and a punt on its game-opening drives.
Are we slightly reducing our chances of winning by deferring on the coin toss? We are almost always starting games behind after the opening drive. And it is a reasonable argument that the losses to Ok. St. and WVa are attributable to having one less possession.