How much in NIL money is from alumni/schools and how much is from major local/regional/national businesses who actually want the name, image and likeness of players for marketing purposes and are expecting a return on that?
I would think the latter could eventually dwarf the former. I mean, Austin will never have pro football, basketball or baseball. The pro spots franchises in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio won't allow it. Longhorn football will always be the biggest sports franchise in whats the 11th biggest city in the U.S. The name, image and likeness of the same player in Austin is potentially worth a lot more than the same player in Tuscaloosa. Not to mention the alumni fold into the population of all the other major cities in Texas makes the NIL valuable there, too.
I am not sure there is a university better set up for NIL success than Texas. Some teams that I think would be poised to do well would be Oregon, Miami, USC, Georgia, Michigan. But I don't think any of them have a better combination of advantages than Texas has.