Well, shit, this in the bag. I guess I can stay home in November.
To me the wildcard is the nation states that benefit from a weakened U.S. with the means to influence the election. Obviously led by Russia.
The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee investigation submitted the first in their five-volume 1,313-page report in July 2019. The committee concluded that the January 2017 intelligence community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed". The first volume also concluded that the assessment was "proper", learning from analysts that there was "no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions". The final and fifth volume, which was the result of three years of investigations, was released in August 2020,[8] ending one of the United States "highest-profile congressional inquiries".[9][10] The Committee report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.[9]
A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee[161] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.[162] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.[163] The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.[162]
Russia's path to victory in the Ukraine is through Donald Trump and conservative congress members that would stymie aid to Zelensky and leave NATO without a super-power's teeth. They are going to go for broke in influencing this election, and as we've seen, you don't have to tilt the odds nationwide, just in a relatively small number of swing counties in a relatively small number of swing states.