Everything posted by KYHorn
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
- What's happening in Iran?
- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
Yesterday I published an analysis on the tanker MARINERA arguing that this was not a routine sanctions evasion case and not a simple oil shipment problem because the behavior around this vessel did not fit commercial logic and instead tracked with mission logic. Three hours later, the Wall Street Journal confirmed that Russia has deployed naval units, including a submarine, to escort MARINERA through the North Atlantic and deter any U.S. attempt to board or seize her, which materially changes how this transit should be understood. See "The Ship Russia Would Not Abandon: A Collision Course Between Superpowers": https://x.com/UKikaski/status/2008659232812658862 States do not assign submarines to protect fuel cargo, and they do not escalate naval posture to defend a marginal tanker.. A submarine escort is not asset protection and it is not commercial risk management but deterrence signaling used when cargo, passengers, or onboard capability are politically or strategically sensitive. In my report, I assessed that MARINERA was likely tied to the movement of high value personnel, ISR capability, or sensitive mission equipment, and that the early U.S. interest combined with Russia’s political response suggested this was being treated as a protected transfer rather than a commercial shipment. The Russian decision to deploy naval escorts, including a submarine, aligns with that assessment because oil and a rusty hull are replaceable while people and capabilities are not. This is why this case is now being handled as a contested movement operation rather than a shipping issue. This is also why it is drawing military assets, why it is being defended in the open, and why it should be analyzed as a strategic transfer problem rather than protecting a comparatively worthless shadow fleet asset. The escort, as I predicted in my report, confirms that "Marinera" is not about sanctioned oil and never was- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
US forces attempt to board oil tanker after pursuit acros...US officials say that American forces plan to seize the Russian-flagged ship, which is accused of breaking sanctions.- Things not going well in Venezuela
It's worth mentioning that Greenland looks gigantic on maps and Venezuela has the "largest oil reserves in the world".- What's happening in Iran?
Our IRGC's heads are falling off- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-interdict-tanker-carrying-venezuelan-oil-after-maduros-capture/- Things not going well in Venezuela
Put him on the couch!- What's happening in Iran?
- Things going on in Cuba...
Just getting everyone ready- Things not going well in Venezuela
- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
Pretty gruesome at the end:- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
There are reports indicating a deployment of 160th SOAR assets to RAF Fairford in the UK. In addition, two AC-130J aircraft have also recently deployed to the UK. The specific mission set remains unclear at this time. However, several plausible explanations stand out: A) Participation in a joint exercise with UK Special Forces. B) Forward staging for a potential maritime interdiction or seizure operation, potentially involving sanctioned vessels such as BELLA 1. C) A temporary staging node ahead of further deployment, either elsewhere in Europe or onward into the Middle East. (Image from yesterday)- Lasik - Austin 2018
Not in Austin, but I was quoted around $2500 per eye. General question: Lasik speeds up the timeline for needing readers, right? I do a ton of my work on my computer, but I guess I can just adjust the font size to avoid the need to constantly use readers. Is there anything I'm missing? Even at 37, it would really suck to get the surgery only for it to necessitate glasses for most of my day when my contacts work fine.- Things not going well in Venezuela
- Things not going well in Venezuela
Interesting insight into the process and thinking of the admin here Delcy Rodríguez and the core of the regime’s leadership are negotiating with the United States as we speak. This is not a sudden pivot. It is the result of a conclusion reached in Washington over months: the U.S. does not believe that María Corina Machado and the opposition have the operational capacity to seize power in Venezuela because they do not control, or meaningfully fracture, the military. If they did, power would have shifted immediately after the 2024 presidential election. It did not. For a long period, U.S. officials, including Marco Rubio, were in constant communication with Machado and her team. They were asked repeatedly for proof of a concrete plan, not just to win power symbolically, but to retain it in practice: chain of command, military alignment, institutional control, day-after governance. The answers were consistently evasive, justified by security concerns, but never substantiated. At that point, from the U.S. government’s perspective, the opposition ceased to look like a viable transition mechanism and began to look like a political wager with no enforcement arm. The plan now on the table is for Delcy Rodríguez to stabilize the country with U.S. backing and then call for general elections. This is not framed as an endorsement of the regime, but as a containment and transition strategy. Washington is explicit about one thing: this is not a partnership of equals. The United States is running the process, the lines are being managed through Rubio, and the leverage is entirely asymmetric. Delcy is the instrument, not the center of gravity. U.S. officials also assess that Delcy’s harsh public rhetoric today was aimed inward, at the chavista base, not outward. That messaging is understood as domestic signaling. Nevertheless, as of now, negotiations with the United States are ongoing as we speak.- Things not going well in Venezuela
- Teeth Whitening
You want something like this, unless you already have invisalign retainers or other type of plastic retainer or mouth guard, in which case, you can just buy the hydrogen peroxide gel.- Things not going well in Venezuela
Real winner of 2024 election- Things not going well in Venezuela
So negotiated with the 6 generals, not Maduro?- Things not going well in Venezuela
At least one helicopter was shot, according to Trump, but yes, minimal resistance it seems- Things not going well in Venezuela
I've seen reports that it was negotiated and the VP being in Moscow would support that, but was this operation all then to circumvent the VN military?- Things not going well in Venezuela
Trump just said in an interview that there were injuries but no deaths of US troops. A helicopter was hit. Also said this was planned to occur 4 days ago but the weather wasn't favorable. Maduro was in a "highly guarded fortress" with "steel doors" that had to be "blow torched". He was trying to get into a safe room in the house but didn't make it into there. Said Maudro has very little support but also would say he supports Machado. Trump said "well they have a vice president as well..." but said "we cannot take a chance of someone else taking control of the country" (implying someone else like Maduro). Trump said he didn't know about the Chinese delegates, and that the US military built mock-ups of the house Maduro was in. Trump spoke personally with Maduro a couple of times, including about a week ago. Maduro and his wife are now on the USS Iwo Jima.- Things not going well in Venezuela
If this is true, the closest comparison for the Venezuela operation isn't Iraq but Panama. In both cases, the invasion was portrayed as a police action to capture a head of state to stand trial in the US for drug trafficking. Operation Just Cause, unlike Operation Iraqi Freedom, is seen in US defense circles as a success, a quick operation that did not result in a prolonged occupation or bloody insurgency. It also succeeded in installing Guillermo Endara - the opposition leader who won the annulled 1989 elections - as president, and dismantling the Panama Defense Forces entirely. There are reasons why this comparison doesn't work, however. Unlike Venezuela, Panama already had a major US military presence as the then-headquarters of Southcom, with over 10,000 troops already on Panamanian soil before the invasion, who could guarantee a transition of government and US-friendly administration after. It's also much smaller and was exclusively under the thumb of the US from its founding. Venezuela is much larger, has oil, and closer relations with other foreign powers, notably China. Its military is democratically unaccountable, has vast powers beyond national defense, and is rich from oil rents and criminal activities. It's hard to see how Venezuela transitions to a democratic, opposition-run government without either the FANB's buy-in, or dismantling. And it's hard to see how those things are secured by a smash-and-grab operation that appears to already be over. - What's happening in Iran?
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