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KYHorn

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Everything posted by KYHorn

  1. Several contradictory things are simultaneously true: 1. Maduro was an oppressive, unpopular and illegitimate ruler, disastrous for his country and the region. 2. Using the US to remove him may have been equally illegitimate. 3. Venezuela would be better off with a new government under the opposition's Edmundo Gonzalez (who probably won the presidential election but is now exiled). 4. It's not clear that Maduro will be replaced by Gonzalez. Maduro's VP is still apparently in power, as are other regime figures and the Cubans who back them. 5. As we've seen in Iraq and Libya, it can be easier to topple a leader than to establish a new government; sometimes you get a worse leader, or Somalia-style chaos.
  2. Just got off the phone with @SecRubio He informed me that Nicolás Maduro has been arrested by U.S. personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States, and that the kinetic action we saw tonight was deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant This action likely falls within the president’s inherent authority under Article II of the Constitution to protect U.S. personnel from an actual or imminent attack Thank you, @SecRubio, for keeping me apprised
  3. "On Dec 30–31, a swarm of FP drones headed to strike a Russian oil refinery. One was shot down. The rest retaliated, found the air defense system, chased it down, and destroyed it mid-escape. Nine Russian troops were killed. The remaining drones completed their mission and torched the refinery," said Denys Shtilierman, co-owner and chief designer of Fire Point.
  4. BREAKING: It is official—Kyrylo Budanov has confirmed that he accepted the position of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. “I accepted the offer of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to be the Head of his Office. I continue to serve Ukraine. I consider the position of Head of the Office of the President as another milestone of responsibility to the country. For me, it is an honor and a responsibility - at a historic time for Ukraine, to focus on critically important issues of the strategic security of our state. Thank you for your trust! I thank all my comrades-in-arms and the entire team of the Military District of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for their joint work. We must continue to do our part - to defeat the enemy, defend Ukraine and work to achieve a just peace. Let’s continue to fight together for a free and secure future of Ukraine! We shell privaile!”, — Budanov wrote on his social media These two events may or may not be connected, the tweet is obviously implying they are: All Americans must urgently leave Russia: those who remain should make a will and avoid social media, — Fox News quotes the US State Department. Russia is preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties closer to January 6-7, to blame Ukraine and disrupt negotiations, — SZRU. The target could be an iconic structure or other symbolic object in Russia or on occupied territories, they clarified.
  5. Even those who survived saw and likely did some gruesome things to survive.
  6. Deleted because non-reputable source
  7. "C.I.A. director, Mr. Ratcliffe, had consistently protected his own officers’ efforts for Ukraine. He kept the agency’s presence in the country at full strength; funding for its programs there even increased... But a parallel weapon had remained in place —permission for C.I.A. and military officers to share targeting intelligence and provide other assistance for Ukrainian drone strikes against crucial components of the Russian defense industrial base. These included factories manufacturing “energetics” — chemicals used in explosives — as well as petroleum-industry facilities. In June, beleaguered U.S. military officers met with their C.I.A. counterparts to help craft a more concerted Ukrainian campaign. It would focus exclusively on oil refineries and, instead of supply tanks, would target the refineries’ Achilles’ heel: A C.I.A. expert had identified a type of coupler that was so hard to replace or repair that a refinery would remain offline for weeks. (To avoid backlash, they would not supply weapons and other equipment that Mr. Vance’s allies wanted for other priorities.) As the campaign began to show results, Mr. Ratcliffe discussed it with Mr. Trump. The president seemed to listen to him; they had a frequent Sunday tee time. According to U.S. officials, Mr. Trump praised America’s surreptitious role in these blows to Russia’s energy industry. They gave him deniability and leverage, he told Mr. Ratcliffe, as the Russian president continued to “jerk him off.”... The C.I.A. would also be authorized to assist with Ukrainian drone strikes on “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean." https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/30/world/europe/ukraine-war-us-russia.html?unlocked_article_code=1.A1A.hO5p.huXimEYkcf2R&smid=url-share cc: @PTINS The entire article is very interesting. Looks like the NYT got an in-depth perspective from Gen Kellogg after leaving his position.
  8. Update on the tanker https://archive.is/3hZJo Russia Asks United States to Stop Pursuit of Fleeing Oil Tanker The government of Russia has made a formal diplomatic request that the United States stop its pursuit of an oil tanker that had been sailing for Venezuela and is now fleeing the Coast Guard in the Atlantic Ocean, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The request was delivered late on New Year’s Eve to the State Department, said the people, who discussed the diplomatic message on the condition of anonymity. It was also sent to the White House’s Homeland Security Council, one of the people said. The dispute over the tanker comes as President Trump is trying to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and has repeatedly complained about his inability to end the war. Earlier this week, Mr. Trump hosted President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at Mar-a-Lago, his private club and residence in Florida, and the two leaders expressed optimism about ending the war even as they appeared to make little progress on the thorny issues of security guarantees and territory swaps. What you should know. The Times makes a careful decision any time it uses an anonymous source. The information the source supplies must be newsworthy and give readers genuine insight. Learn more about our process. Russia’s request that the United States stop chasing the vessel could add a new wrinkle to the negotiations. American forces have been tracking the tanker, known as the Bella 1, for nearly two weeks. The ship, which started its journey in Iran, had been on its way to pick up oil in Venezuela when U.S. forces tried to stop and board it in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. authorities said the ship was not flying a valid national flag, making it a stateless vessel susceptible to boarding under international law, and said they possessed a seizure warrant. But the crew of the Bella 1 refused to comply and sailed back toward the Atlantic. In the days since, the ship has tried to claim the protection of Russia, with its crew painting a Russian flag on the side and radioing the Coast Guard to say they were sailing under Russian authority. The Bella 1 recently appeared in Russia’s official register of ships, under a new name, the Marinera, with a home port of Sochi, on the Black Sea. The White House declined to comment on the record. But a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing law enforcement matter said the Trump administration continues to view the tanker as “stateless” because it was flying a false flag when it was first approached by the Coast Guard. The State Department and the Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Although securing Russian protection may be a long shot for the Bella 1 under international law, Russia’s diplomatic intervention could complicate the U.S. attempt to seize the tanker, which stems from an ongoing conflict with Venezuela. David Tannenbaum, a former sanctions compliance officer at the Treasury Department, said earlier this week that it was “unclear” whether Russia’s providing “overnight flag registration” to the ship would prove valid. Mr. Trump has instituted a quasi-blockade on some tankers transporting oil from Venezuela as he seeks to pressure the government of Nicolás Maduro. The export of oil, mainly to China, has kept Venezuela’s economy afloat. So far, the United States has boarded and taken possession of two other tankers in the Caribbean. American officials have said they plan to seize more ships. Editors’ Picks Making These Resolutions Can Improve a Relationship The New Year’s Resolutions That Changed Your Lives In the New Year, More Cuddling Mr. Maduro has ordered the Venezuelan Navy to accompany some tankers leaving his country and has considered putting troops on board, potentially heightening the chances of an armed confrontation with U.S. forces on the high seas.
  9. Interesting reporting about a shadow tanker that was headed for Venezuela when it was intercepted by the US. Crew Paints Russian Flag on Tanker Pursued by the U.S. Coast Guard The crew of an oil tanker fleeing U.S. forces in the Atlantic Ocean recently painted a Russian flag on the side of the vessel, in an apparent attempt to claim Russian protection, two American officials said on Tuesday. It’s the latest twist in a bizarre odyssey that began on Dec. 21 when the U.S. Coast Guard tried to intercept the ship, Bella 1, in the Caribbean Sea as it sailed toward Venezuela to pick up oil, putting it in the cross hairs of President Trump’s quasi-blockade of the Venezuelan government’s economic lifeline. The Bella 1’s crew members have since painted a Russian flag on the tanker during the escape and are now claiming Russian status, according to the U.S. officials, who were briefed on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation. The tanker has been under U.S. sanctions since last year for transporting Iranian oil, which federal authorities have said is sold to finance terrorism. The ship also appears to have recently changed its course northwest, away from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly heading toward Greenland or Iceland, the officials said. It is not believed to be carrying cargo. The Bella 1’s location transponder has not been on since Dec. 17, meaning The New York Times has not been able to track the vessel as it flees from U.S. forces. The ship also appears to have recently changed its course northwest, away from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly heading toward Greenland or Iceland, the officials said. It is not believed to be carrying cargo. The Bella 1’s location transponder has not been on since Dec. 17, meaning The New York Times has not been able to track the vessel as it flees from U.S. forces. But boarding the fleeing Bella 1 would require a specialized boarding team capable of securing a moving vessel with a potentially hostile crew. It is unusual for civilian tankers to flee from such operations. The crews of two other tankers intercepted by U.S. forces near Venezuela this month both agreed to be boarded. The officials said they had obtained a seizure warrant based on the vessel’s previous involvement in the Iranian oil trade. The Bella 1 is part of a so-called ghost fleet of tankers that move oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. Most of the Bella 1’s crew are from Russia, India and Ukraine, according to one of the officials. The Coast Guard successfully boarded another tanker in the Caribbean earlier in the month, and the United States took possession of a third tanker on Dec. 10. It is now at a port in Texas. Federal officials say they are planning to seize more tankers involved in Venezuela’s oil trade, which provides the country with badly needed revenue. The Treasury Department on Tuesday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and entities based in Venezuela and Iran for their involvement in producing and selling drones. Among those targeted is Empresa Aeronáutica Nacional and its chair, Jose Jesus Urdaneta Gonzalez, who the Treasury Department said has worked with the Venezuelan and Iranian armed forces to assemble drones in Venezuela. “Treasury is holding Iran and Venezuela accountable for their aggressive and reckless proliferation of deadly weapons around the world,” John K. Hurley, the Treasury under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement. “We will continue to take swift action to deprive those who enable Iran’s military-industrial complex access to the U.S. financial system.” The actions come days after the C.I.A. conducted a drone strike on a port facility in Venezuela amid a growing pressure campaign against the Maduro government. The strike is the first known American operation inside Venezuela, as the U.S. military strikes on boats it suspects of trafficking drugs have taken place in international waters. The Venezuelan government has not commented on the recent attacks. But President Nicolás Maduro and military officials have projected a sense of heightened security in videos posted on social media on Tuesday. Officials said mixed military-police units have been deployed across Zulia state and to protect energy infrastructure, including a petrochemical complex near Lake Maracaibo and a refining center on the Caribbean coast. Mr. Maduro is working to counter the narrative from American officials that Venezuela is exporting an enormous amount of drugs to the United States. He said his country’s armed forces destroyed nine foreign drug-trafficking aircraft in a 24-hour period. Venezuelan military officials said operations in western border states have led to major drug seizures, the dismantling of clandestine camps, airstrips and vessels, as well as hundreds of arrests https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/us/politics/oil-tanker-venezuela-us-russia-bella-1.html
  10. Not sure why it won't embed, but Trump has some positive things to say about Zelenzky. What's not so encouraging is that Putin gets to bookend the meeting. Hopefully there will be a European followup as well. https://x.com/OstapYarysh/status/2005351234413211766?s=20 Trump: This gentleman (Zelenskyy) has worked very hard, he's very brave, and his people are very brave. Very rarely has a nation ever had to go through this. We're gonna have a very good meeting today, I think. And I'm also calling President Putin back after the meeting, and we'll continue the negotiation
  11. Lots of talk that 2026 is the year for real economic trouble in Russia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/22/russia-war-economy-ukraine/ https://archive.is/IGy2l Russia’s economy keeps driving its war, but it could break in 2026 A woman walks out of an office of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, in Moscow on Dec. 5. (Ramil Sitdikov/Reuters) Even based on the official data, one Kremlin-linked think tank, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, said this month that Russia could face a systemic banking crisis by October if problem loans continue to rise and depositors start withdrawing funds en masse. Russia had also heavily relied on taxing its biggest energy giants to help fund its war machine. But this month, Putin extended tax breaks to Russia’s two biggest energy majors, Gazprom, the state gas monopoly, and Rosneft, the Kremlin oil champion, which have both faced growing financial pressures.Ask The Post AIDive deeper Once the cash cow of the Russian economy, Gazprom racked up a net loss of $12.9 billion last year, according to Russian accounting standards, the result of losing its main market in Europe since the beginning of the war. It has burned through its cash reserves, which in early 2022 stood at $27 billion and now total only $6 billion to $8 billion, while it also appears to have added more than $20 billion in additional debt. The Russian oil industry is also facing a growing crunch. Even before the new blocking sanctions were imposed, Rosneft reported a 70 percent drop in its net profit to $3.6 billion for the first three quarters of this year compared with the previous year as oil prices fall. Across the oil sector, a combination of ever tougher sanctions cutting off much needed equipment and limiting options for selling crude is forcing many companies to focus only on extracting oil from the most accessible wells — and could force them to shut down others. “There are only so many buyers with an appetite for sanctioned oil,” Kennedy explained. “When you do the numbers, it looks like somewhere between 1.6 million and 2.8 million barrels per day will get stranded without firm demand. At the moment, a lot of unsold oil is being stored on the water in tankers.” Wider woesRussia’s economic troubles are starting to seep through to the wider population. Consumers have started tightening their belts, according to a recent report by Russian state bank Sberbank, cutting spending on clothing by 8.7 percent at the beginning of December compared with the previous year, on household goods by 8.8 percent and on health and beauty by 5.9 percent. High interest rates and lower revenue have left companies in crisis across the country — and many pass their problems onto workers, either by furloughing staff, cutting their work hours or simply failing to pay their wages. In Nizhny Tagil, dozens of shift workers clad in orange hard hats at Novoleks copper mining and processing plant recorded a video this month complaining that they had not been paid in two months. Izvestia newspaper reported dozens of similar cases involving at least 34 companies. People rest at a Christmas fair in Moscow on Dec. 3. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP) According to Russia’s statistical agency, Rosstat, in October the total of unpaid wages had almost tripled year-on-year, reaching more than $27 million, with more than 26,000 complaints to Russia’s labor agency this year. Last month, 300 workers building a nuclear reactor in the Ulyanovsk region went on strike, complaining they had not been paid for two months. “There’s absolutely no way for people to pay their loans anymore. A lot of debt has piled up,” said a worker spokesman standing with dozens of others in a video message to Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Russian Investigative Committee. “The living conditions at the site where we work are also terrible. The toilets are overflowing and not being emptied.” Russia’s Kuzbass coal mining region is one of the hardest hit, where 18 of the region’s 151 coal companies have ceased operations and another 30 are in critical condition, according to regional governor Ilya Seredyuk. Likewise, Russia’s metallurgy sector is in decline, despite high demand from military production plants. Despite the growing difficulties facing the population, few in Moscow’s elite expect the economic woes to translate into social unrest, or that it will make any difference to Putin’s calculus. “The growth of economic problems won’t lead to social or political problems. But next year will be the first difficult year of the military operation,” said a Russian academic close to senior diplomats.
  12. Ukraine not immune to similar problems, though at a smaller scale it seems The commanders of Ukraine's 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade, Colonel Oleksii Konoval, and 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, Colonel Volodymyr Potieshkin, have been removed from their posts after the rapid loss of the city of Siversk in northern Donetsk Oblast. The 54th brigade defended Ukrainian positions inside the city while the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade was positioned south of Siversk... Ukrainska Pravda learned that the dismissals are linked to alleged falsification of reports by both brigades' leadership. The brigades reported that they held positions in their areas of responsibility, but in reality those positions had long remained without personnel. The alleged falsehood became apparent during the swift loss of the city. Russia said that it had seized Siversk on 12 December 2025. Ukrainska Pravda reported that the 11th Army Corps, which had operational control over the 54th and 10th brigades, trusted the brigades and believed their reports matched reality. Inspectors from the corps regularly visited the units but did not identify problems or discrepancies because, the sources say, they were consistently concealed... Brigadier General Dmytro Bratishko, commander of Operational Command Skhid, also took oversight of the Soledar tactical group. According to the sources, Bratishko was furious when he learnt of the loss of Siversk and demanded that a Ukrainian flag be raised over parts of the city, almost by any means. A flag was delivered using unmanned ground vehicles, which are in short supply, to drone operators from the 54th brigade, who then carried it by drone to the railway station building in Siversk in a bid to stage a "flag-planting" moment to satisfy the commander, as seen in the picture."
  13. Ukraine's F-16s just shot down 34 of 35 Russian cruise missiles in a single night. The secret might be new Sniper targeting pods—they let pilots hunt missiles on infrared without giving away their position. Even better: the laser-guided rockets they're using cost $35,000 each, compared to $500,000 for standard air-to-air missiles. That's one of the few weapons in Ukraine's arsenal that's actually cheaper than a $50,000 Shahed drone. Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat credited the F-16 pilots directly for the intercepts — Euromaidan Press
  14. I see them, but am I going crazy or did the top one pop up automatically when you'd scroll up slightly? That way, you didn't have to get all the way back up to navigate to a different forum?
  15. I know it's been mentioned but wasn't sure if it's a work in progress or not-- the button nav bar is useless to me and I desperately miss all the forums popping up at the top when you scroll up a bit. Currently, it's requires way more work to get to a different forum or thread. Otherwise, I'm liking the changes and appreciate your work
  16. Turkey shot down a Russian surveillance drone with an F-16 Sidewinder missile after three separate incursions violated Turkish airspace in days. One Orlan-10 crashed just 50 km from Istanbul; debris from a Merlin reconnaissance drone was found in western Turkey near defense industry sites. The pattern points to deliberate surveillance, not navigation errors - Russia is tracking Ukrainian naval drone activity and shipping movements as it loses control of the Black Sea. But Turkey isn't absorbing these violations passively like other NATO members. Ankara is signaling that continued incursions could trigger restrictions on Russian shipping through the Bosphorus. The consequences would be severe: Novorossiysk handles roughly 20% of Russia's oil exports, and grain shipments from southern ports would collapse. Alternative Baltic and Pacific routes can't compensate. Russia's expanding drone operations to compensate for its Black Sea losses may be creating a much bigger problem - one that costs nothing to strike but everything to lose.
  17. A little AI generated comic to whet your appetite for story time
  18. BREAKING: POLICE OFFICERS WHO TORTURED UKRAINIAN POWS BLOWN UP IN MOSCOW According to one version, an unidentified man threw an explosive device into the window of a police vehicle. Two officers were killed on the spot, two more are in critical condition. The attacker also died. The eliminated Russians had previously fought against Ukraine. There is also evidence that they were involved in the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing sources in Ukraine’s military intelligence
  19. Will be interesting to see if this goes anywhere. Russia likely won't budge. Zelensky has outlined all 20 points of Ukraine’s peace plan👇 ▪️ Recognition and confirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. ▪️ Signing of a non-aggression treaty between Russia and Ukraine, with international monitoring of the line of contact. ▪️ Provision of security guarantees for Ukraine. ▪️ The size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces in peacetime to be up to 800,000 personnel. ▪️ The United States, NATO, and European countries to provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to Article 5. In the event of a new Russian invasion, a military response would follow and sanctions would be reinstated. ▪️ Russia to legally закрепить a course of non-aggression toward Ukraine and Europe. ▪️ Ukraine to obtain EU membership within an agreed timeframe, preferably with a fixed date. ▪️ Formation of a global development package to be formalized through a separate investment agreement. ▪️ Creation of several reconstruction funds to attract around $800 billion. ▪️ Acceleration of the signing of a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the United States. ▪️ Confirmation of Ukraine’s non-nuclear status. ▪️ Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: no compromises. The US proposes a trilateral management format with a lead manager from the United States. Ukraine’s position is joint management with the US on a parity basis (50/50). ▪️ Introduction of educational programs in schools aimed at promoting tolerance, intercultural understanding, and combating racism and bias. ▪️ The territorial issue is the most difficult point. One possible scenario: Russia withdraws troops from the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. In Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, the principle of “remaining on current positions” applies. Russia demands Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk region, while the US proposes a compromise in the form of a free economic zone. If the “stand where we stand” principle is not accepted, the free economic zone option would be possible only through a referendum, with the entire package of agreements put to a vote. ▪️ Russia and Ukraine commit not to revise the agreed arrangements through the use of force. ▪️ Russia does not obstruct Ukraine’s use of the Dnipro River and the Black Sea for commercial purposes. The Kinburn Spit is to be demilitarized. ▪️ A prisoner exchange under an “all for all” formula, the return of civilians, children, and political prisoners. ▪️ Ukraine to hold elections as soon as possible after the agreement is signed. ▪️ The document is legally binding, with implementation overseen by a Peace Council chaired by Trump. ▪️ After all parties agree, a full ceasefire comes into effect immediately
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