KYHorn

Yeah that type of jabbing has definitely caused some issues.

There's some of that for sure, but women report wanting far more children than they actually have. To me, that indicates there is room for policies to make childbearing and raising children easier. Of course there are many other factors involved, including the difficulty of finding marriageable men and fathers.

Great news: jet pack guy is dead!

Lol

What could be behind this uptick in "friendly" fire on Russian aircraft? Is hacking possible? Sabotage, lack of radar or other equipment due to attrition, or an increase in incompetence?

You also get extra discounts by using scan and go. They don't advertise the sales that I'm aware of, the discounts just show up as you scan. Sam's just announced that they're doing away with the receipt checks altogether by using AI and cameras to check the products in your cart.

An economist I subscribe to provided some additional info on the jobs revisions and commercial real estate issues in relation to the likelihood of a recession in 2024. He includes links to sources and additional readings that are also helpful. I'll try to spoiler judiciously: Many labor economists also are concerned that job openings data, which remain elevated versus pre-pandemic levels, aren’t accurate, and that both the string of downward revisions to the jobs figures (all but one month in 2023) and recent declines in labor force participation indicate a cooler labor market than may first appear. For you data nerds, part of the problem is the “complete disconnect” between the payroll survey (where we get the topline jobs number) and the household survey (unemployment rate and participation). The latter is looking much more pessimistic than the former: What Will Happen to Commercial Real Estate and the Banks Supporting It? Another reason to pause the soft-landing parade is also another big thing I’m watching closely in 2024: the commercial real estate market. As the Wall Street Journal just reported, in fact, almost 20 percent of major metro office space was vacant at the end of 2023—a new record dating back to the late 1970s: Much of this is, as we’ve discussed (and podcasted), driven by remote work, housing costs, and other quality-of-life issues. Yet contrary to what you might think, the hardest hit commercial real estate markets today aren’t in expensive coastal metros like San Francisco, D.C., or New York (which have certainly struggled, too). They’re mainly in the South (“the three major U.S. cities with the country’s highest office-vacancy rates are Houston, Dallas and Austin, Texas”) where the aforementioned post-pandemic issues fuel fires already burning from earlier decades of commercial overbuilding and where they make a big turnaround less likely. As one real estate pro explained, “The bulk of the vacant space are buildings that were built in the 1950s, ’60s, ’70s and ’80s”—and good luck getting that space rented in today’s still-strong remote work environment. Converting these properties to much-needed residential housing could help with this problem (especially since older properties are typically easier to convert), and conversions are popping up around the country. But not all properties can be converted, and the ones that can likely need two big things: 1) buy-in from local regulators and voters (to revise building codes, zoning rules, and other regulations—see this new paper for a glimpse at the regulatory burden commercial properties face); and 2) a big haircut from current owners to make the conversion numbers work without massive government subsidies. Here’s one recent example of types of price cuts that may be needed:

They may not be as ready as we assume either US intelligence believes Chinese missiles are filled with water instead of fuel This is reported by Bloomberg. Because of the huge scale of corruption in the Chinese missile forces and the country's entire defense industry, U.S. officials now believe that Xi Jinping is unlikely to risk staging large-scale military operations in the near future, according to the publication.

If it helps, they're worth about $10k now I kid I kid

Different angle. Update below Non life threatening injury:

Well this was brave

I assume all of the different brands have brushless options by now? Surprised to not see any distinctions made between Milwaukee and Milwaukee Fuel for example. Brushless should improve battery consumption and extended the life of the tool and battery. Not sure of the actual research on this though

1. I agree as it relates to acquiring a new property, but he already owns it and presumably has it either paid off or has an incredibly low rate locked in. If you're treading water on the rent and your only hope for return is on the property value itself, then it's almost certainly not worth it. 2. Which brings me to the opportunity cost you're referring to here. I get a nearly guaranteed (current renters are excellent and have 1.5 years left on the lease) return of about 10% on the equity I have in my rental house for at least 1.5 years with good prospects for additional years of return. That's accounting for repairs, taxes, insurance, interest payments, etc just from rent and not even considering increases in property value. While on average the market will get me about 8% annual return, it's not as likely to hit that mark this year as I am likely to receive rent from my current tenant. I feel the likelihood of decreasing property value is minimal and it's likely to increase modestly over the next few years. Now of course a good portion of that return in both rent and property value is illiquid and locked up in the equity of the house, but some of it isn't, so in that regard it's a more of an individualized matter of cash flow vs net worth. For me, the return I'm getting is well worth the occasional hassle, but there is wide variability in the specific circumstances around the property and the needs of the landlord.

You may get more responses in the mortgage and real estate thread. We've had many discussions about this there and everyone is great about offering thoughtful and detailed advice. https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/186-all-encompassing-mortgage-and-real-estate-thread/?do=getNewComment Just off the top of my head, it seems like money can solve a number of your concerns (tenants and day to day management), but it comes down to opportunity costs. What return are you getting on the property? (Rent + increase in property value - PITI, repairs, management fees) vs what can you get from the money of you were to sell the property, both in terms of utility and return (how would you spend or invest it?). If you're in a great market that should continue increasing in value and for which rent demand will remain strong (and therefore quality renters easier to obtain), and you're sitting on an historically low interest rate, that's probably hard to pass up and difficult to beat in terms of growth. But the rental income you receive may get significantly reduced by management fees and repairs to the point that alternative investments or ways of enjoying the capital you have in the house are more appealing. As a side note, I don't know what you've tried for finding renters, but I've had success using Zillow to find renters. They have everything you need built-in, including the obvious marketing infrastructure, but also background checks, references, and even a payment system if you wish. I considered using an agency my realtor recommended but Zillow made it all pretty easy. Meeting and communicating with prospective tenants is obviously going to come with some degree of inconvenience that you can shop out to a rental agency, but again it's all part of the opportunity cost and utility considerations that are unique to your situation.

I think it's safe to say they're gone. Here's an ever clearer video. It's beautiful in multiple ways

I walked by those horrendous monstrosities every day and eventually googled to find out where in God's name they came from. Found Shaggy. Initially I only came back to get streams for the games, then I lurked for years and finally joined right before the purge. We should do a poll to see how posters found this place. The statues posts were hilarious but it's such a random event to be a significant source of members.

Yes it seems so. This original post only said this: 'We have somewhat unusual drones that are better at destroying Russian infantry than before. No details yet🤫 Avdiiv direction. The Mutant group of the TsSO A SBU works. The Russians will die perfectly. Pay particular attention to 1:30. At first, the occupier did not even understand what had happened. He walked a little and collapsed from massive blood loss.'