KYHorn

Talk me out of this because it has been creeping into my head for the past couple of months. Setting aside all other CR considerations: An election that results in more of the same policies is more likely to mean Ukraine continues to lose slowly while Russia's economy and military continue to be substantially depleted. Put another way, will a Harris admin approach this differently and with much greater resolve and courage than the current admin? I haven't seen much to suggest otherwise. This increases the likelihood of a meaningful Russian breakthrough at some point, but even without that, Russia is able to take more territory and Ukraine loses more bargaining power than it already has for when the time comes to settle this. An election that results in a new admin where they are determined to end it now could result in significant and terrible concessions for Ukraine, but given the person in charge is unpredictable and highly sensitive to how he is perceived, the risk that it is seen as a "weak deal" would be an effective deterrent to giving up much to Russia and could actually end up strengthening the USA's resolve vis-à-vis the president and, therefore, Ukraine's bargaining power. Again, this is highly dependent on capriciousness, so it's more likely to result in extremes. But, if it is appearing increasingly likely that the alternative admin would continue down the path of slow decline, then the chance of the more favorable result for Ukraine might actually lie with the counter-intuitive admin.

A brief, sober look at the current status of the war https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-survive-not-to-win https://archive.is/kU0HV#selection-1093.465-1093.578

"Chervona Kalyna" brigade of Ukraine’s NG repelled a Russian meat assault in the Pokrovsk area. Ukrainian defenders countered effectively, using coordinated firepower from artillery, drones, and firearms despite thorough preparations by the Russian forces, including a rapid approach and heavy grenade attacks. The brigade successfully held the position, repelling the terrorist assault.

Update around Kurakhivka-Kurakhove. Russian troops have taken Hyrnik -after earlier premature information- and are now geolocated in the industrial area west of Kurakhivka. It is highly unlikely that Ukrainian troops are still in Kurakhivka, Zoryane and the area east of Zoryane. They have probably retreated to the west to take up new defensive positions there.

No, he never actually left Austin, so the only monuments he visited were these.

Probably true but I imagine an inflationary cycle plus the experience of watching home prices skyrocket on Zillow during COVID and beyond ramps this sentiment up significantly

Some sobering reality here. The lack of an articulate and convincing plan from the current administration, who should know better, while they watch Ukraine lose more and more land and thus bargaining chips, is endlessly frustrating. The rest of the thread is informative.

I guess this can go here.

Apple employee

Meanwhile:

Seem like misses? Bad enough to justify a response, or maybe it'll end up being bluster

BREAKING: The first units of the DPR military have already arrived in the combat zone This was reported by The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Defense Ministry. In particular, on October 23, the appearance of North Korean soldiers was recorded in Kursk Region of the Russian Federation. The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine estimates that a total of about 12 thousand DPRK military personnel have been transferred to Russia. Of them - 500 officers, including three generals Most of them won't ever see a Ukrainian. Behold, your future:

I think the best explanation of this is peoples' inability to remain in a state of cognitive dissonance or to live and think incongruently for very long. There's no homeostasis in "Trump is bad but I will vote for him": either Trump is good and voting for and supporting him is good, or Trump is bad and voting for and supporting him is bad.

^disregard that. Meant to post this

Rumors about a Trump video have been going around Twitter for a few days with the MAGA types preparing their followers for "fake AI misinformation", etc. Will be interesting if more comes of it, but you'd think the video would be out by now

How did they ever figure out the GRU officer's real identity?

Zelenskyy recorded a daily address to Ukrainians wearing a “make russia small again” T-shirt It shows a map of the Principality of Moscow from 1462, when it included Moscow, Suzdal and Vologda. On the back of the t-shirt, the size of the principality is compared to the size of the current Russian Federation.

Russia transfers technology for nuclear weapons to North Korea in exchange for people and missiles. According to the head of the Defense Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia is helping the DPRK circumvent sanctions and "strengthen" its nuclear capabilities. Thus, Russia is transferring some technologies for low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and underwater missile launch systems. https://censor.net/en/n3516301

Superpower News: Russia's major butter producers are either halting production or suspending deliveries to retail chains, while warning of impending price hikes. Since the start of the year, the cost of butter has surged by at least 25%. "Producers are grappling with steep inflation in raw cream materials, which rose by 39% in the first half of the year. Cumulative inflation has reached 46% for the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period last year," reported HN, the former Danone subsidiary. Butter thefts have also been on the rise. Since late 2023, RFID tags have been appearing on butter packages in St. Petersburg, designed to alert store security in case of attempted theft.

I'd guess for the same reasons Hungary is: partially ideological (strongmen leaders who identify with Putin and refuse to be influenced by the democratic West) and partially economic (they can get resources and goods at bargain basement prices from Russia because no one else will buy from them and they can charge Russia high prices when selling them goods because no one else will sell to them, plus hedging with Russia gives them bargaining leverage to squeeze more in diplomatic and economic ways from the West).

Well that's a new one. Pilots of a Russian bomber left an appeal to the Ministry of Defence written on a glide bomb complaining about lack of bonus pay for bombing their own country: "Dear Ministry of Defence, I’m FAB with UMPK. Soon I will fly to destroy occupiers in Kursk Obl. I’m upset for my crew, they have not received bonus pay for counter-terrorist operation since August. Sort it out! P.S. You can make mistakes, but you can’t lie." Soon everyone will see the results of the use of Ukrainian ballistic missiles - the head of the permanent Ukrainian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Cherniv The official commented on two Ukrainian-made missiles. Regarding "Vilkha", he stated that there are components for missiles, which, unfortunately, we cannot get quickly now. Regarding the Operational Tactical Missile Complex "Hrim", the comment is more positive: "The president has already said that our ballistic missiles have passed tests. Believe me, there will soon be concrete results that will be seen not only by Ukraine, but also by the Russian Federation," he said. Dunno what most of this means, but it sounds catastrophic BREAKING Ukrainian hackers hacked Dr. WEB, a Russian IT security company 'We hacked the infrastructure of Dr.Web , a company that has long been considered one of the top cybersecurity companies. Ironic? More than that. We penetrated the local network, having planned everything from the start. After that, systematic work began - step by step we moved deeper, hacking server after server, resource after resource. In just a few days, we penetrated the most protected parts of the infrastructure. We managed to hack and unload the corporate GitLab server, where internal developments and projects were stored, the corporate mail server, Confluence, Redmine, Jenkins, Mantis, RocketChat — systems where development was carried out and tasks were discussed. All security improvement projects now seem to need protection in themselves. Software management resources were not left without attention either. Client databases. Yes, we also downloaded the data of users who trusted Dr.Web with their security. The cherry on the cake is the domain controller. Having taken possession of it, all we had to do was fill our storage devices by downloading more and more data. The total volume of data obtained was about 10 terabytes. However, the most remarkable thing is that we remained unnoticed for a whole month. While the "IS giant" continued to sell its products and talk about the importance of data protection, telling tales about an attempt to harm the infrastructure that was " timely stopped ". Expect some interesting news. We have a lot of Russian data, we continue to work on larger goals.'

Worth remembering for election day that PA cannot begin counting these ballots until election day, which took 4 days in 2020, so initial returns on election night will be skewed.