KYHorn

Conclusions 1. Most of Prigozhin's connections in the elites are non-public, but even from open sources of information it is clear that they are branched and multi-level. 2. The most "hidden" is the information about possible "sympathizers" of Prigozhin among army generals and representatives of other security agencies. 3. It's not the generals who are the most promising, but middle-ranking officers, who see prospects for career growth in case of implementation of Wagner's demands to oust Shoigu and Gerasimov 4. Prigozhin "probed the ground" in the regions, not all the governors who came into contact with him "lit up" the way the governor of Kursk Region did. 5. Prigozhin's position among creative elites is probably the least strong. However, at this stage, this is compensated for by the presence of "anonymous co-creators" who hone his public image and prepare appropriate narratives for the "masses at large". What could be the agreements and the possible development of the situation: 1.The transfer of "control" over a region far outside the North Caucasus fits into the logic of "expanding opportunities" for Chechen leadership and "growing fees for loyalty". 2. Chechen formations are more like policemen than army storm troopers. Their effectiveness on the "Ukrainian" front is questionable and not objectively confirmed. From this point of view, using them to strengthen control in the border region is a quite rational step (if only because it does not weaken the grouping directly on the frontline). 3. Unlike Putin and Prigozhin, Kadyrov has certain "constraints" in terms of the level of acceptable losses among ethnic Chechens. They will definitely be less in Belgorod region than they were somewhere near Bakhmut. 4.Despite public bravado, the Kremlin is not completely sure that the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom for Russia Legion units cannot receive support from local (Russian) population in the border area. Therefore, it "insures" itself by introducing a Chechen formation at the border, which cannot be "swayed" by the ideas of "free Russia". 5. The potential for conflicts (on national and religious grounds) between the "Ahmatovites" and the local population in the Belgorod region is quite high. However, it is impossible to predict how serious and resonant they will be.

Prigozhin audio message 10:19AM BST - "no one will surrender to the demands of the President": "Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one is going to surrender to the demands of the President, FSB, or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to live further in corruption lies, and bureaucracy. When we fought in Africa, we were told that we needed Africa, and then they dumped it, because they stole all the money that was meant to come for help. When we were told we are fighting with Ukraine, we went and fought. But it turned out that the ammo, weapons, all money put towards this were also being stolen, while officials are sitting and saving them for themselves for an incident that happened today, when someone is going towards Moscow." Now they are not saving anything, they are striking us with planes and helicopters at the columns with civilians. And they hit civilians because they’re missing. And they hit anywhere they can. Thus, we are the patriots, but those resisting us today are those who gathered around scumbags.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1672443116744310785?t=NPTKdiLJRkQf-JZ2MBSlDA&s=19 Unidentified people in camouflage cordoned off not only the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, but also the buildings of the head office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB department, the administration of Rostov and one of the police departments, reports the local publication 161ru The sources write that at present the building of the headquarters of the Southern Military District has been captured by the "Wagners"

The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that Elements of the 35th and 36th Marine Brigades of the Ukrainian Naval Infantry are taking advantage of the “Disorganization caused by Prigozhin” and are currently attempting to Breakthrough the Frontline near Bakhmut; Ukrainian Sources are claiming that multiple Streets in the Western District of the City have been Captured so far.

I was wondering if the Chechens might get invited

These are a lot of official sources, so either it's a complete smokescreen of some kind with all actors in on it or there's actually fire under all the smoke

Hopefully Ukraine can milk this for all it's worth The Rubicon has been crossed. According Russian regime media “RIA” the FSB has opened a “criminal case against Prigozhin for calling an armed rebellion”. Peskov also announces that Putin “has been informed”. There is no coming back from this. Somebody is going to lose his head. Ukrainian "Bakhmut Demon" 😳: "The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation. Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians. You would hear the radio broadcast of these *** now. The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"

The rest of Prigozhin's monologue on which I commented before is in fact far more destructive for the Russian regime. Prigozhin basically confirms what has been suspected all along. The Russian advance on Kyiv which spectacularly failed in March 2022 aimed for a regime change. The Russian invasion of the north was an epic disaster which according Prigozhin cost Russian soldiers lives' ten times more than necessary. Additionally, he also confirms another suspicion. He says that Medvechuk was the intended puppet. Just to emphasize how important Medvechuk is to Putin: Putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter. Prigozhin calls Medvedchuk in the same rant a scumbag, whose purpose was the plunder all Ukraine. Instead, Medvedchuk got caught and was exchanged for Azovstahl soldiers. Predictably, Prigozhin decries that an oligarch was exchanged for Ukrainian POW while Russian POW had to be abandoned. I have seen a lot of rants by Prigozhin, lately, but this one has another special quality. Clearly, he is testing the waters, pushing the boundaries more and more. He is striking closer to Putin's home than ever before, but again without naming him directly. In the Russian regime's orbit he is by far the cleverly most opportunistic element. As a standard Russian oligarch I would be extremely concerned. In any case, I gonna need more popcorn.

^Not familiar with that account, so some skepticism is warranted Russian military blogger explains the importance of the Chongar bridge: it was best suited for the Russian military and civilian supply in Kherson region, it carried 70% of the traffic. While it can be repaired, Russia does not have reliable means to prevent cruise missile strikes in the area.

Who could have possibly seen this coming

Uncensored video: https://t.me/k_2_54/129

"I just want to make y'all aware that if we ever get to dry land, you'll be charged for the additional time."

The Minister of Defense of #Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov, in an interview with Current Time TV, stated that on February 24, 2022, Lukashenko's Minister of Defense Khrenin called him and offered to sign the Act of Surrender of Ukraine. "Everyone has their own hobby. I am not personally acquainted with the Russian Defense Minister, I do not know his level of intelligence, so I am not ready to comment. The only thing I can comment on is that he had a strange behavioral movement on February 24, when he asked the Minister of Defense of #Belarus Khrenin to act as a messenger for his messages. After lunch, I received a call from the Belarusian minister with a proposal to sign an Act of Surrender. It was funny," Reznikov said.

Will we see an American news report on this migrant crisis?

Could be useful for the right situations I'd think