fellside
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Everything posted by fellside
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Nate Silver is full of shit
What I'm saying is that we have no evidence that the model is far off at the moment. If you want to be pissed about polls in Iowa and Texas, be pissed off. But 538 had dozens of scenarios where Biden lost those states and still won the election. It's important to read what one criticizes.
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Nate Silver is full of shit
If a guy says someone has an 89% chance of winning and you interpret that to mean it's going to be a blowout, it says more about your understanding of probability than it does the guy himself. Go look at the 538 forecast and you will see numerous scenarios as close as the one we're seeing unfold. Also, there's a very decent chance Biden wins several of these states as mail in votes get counted.
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Nate Silver is full of shit
So a dude says in 89 out of 100 scenarios Biden wins. We're probably about to see one of those 89 scenarios. Dude is dumb. Got it.
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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
I think Silver is saying most of the county is in. What's left is the actual city of Green Bay. So it will be bluer than 14k+ for Trump.
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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
I think it says something about the personalities on Surly that y'all freak me out into an anxiety attack and Karl fucking Rove somehow calms me down and convinces me Biden still has a very real shot.
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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
Not if Georgia goes blue.
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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
I get that most of tonight isn't a surprise based on the polls. I didn't really expect Texas, NC or Ohio. The thing I don't get is how Wisconsin is even close. The polls were consistently Biden by 7-11. How could they be that wrong that often?
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Uniform Pron
Horrible. I saw a dozen fan concepts better.
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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
Just voted for Biden in Tarrant County. Took about 3 minutes. I have three siblings who are all conservative evangelicals and each has a conservative evangelical spouse. All 6 of them will be voting for a democrat in a presidential election for the first time. My Mom was born in the 50s and I believe this will be her first time as well. I'm curious if Biden can win Tarrant county. Hillary lost it by about 8 points but 3% went to Gary Johnson.
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Surly Official 2020 TX vs OU Sucks: 11AM on FOX [FUCK OU]
Do we really have to motion Whittington in every single play? Maybe we wouldn't have a false start if we didn't have to wait for the exact same formation and motion over and over and over again.
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Cowboys vs Browns: Week 4
It's almost like Dak is really good and has been for a while and the people who say otherwise don't know anything about football.
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Fuck Big 12 refs
-offside call where the ref correctly called false start then changed it -pass interference they correctly called then took back -holding call they correctly called then took back
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Fuck Big 12 refs
Texas needs to win by two scores because I don't feel good about leaving it up to officiating in the fourth quarter.
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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU
He can do whatever he wants there.
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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU
Because Fox financially benefits when the Big 12 is good. Klatt sounded as sad about OU losing last weekend as Brando and Tillman did about UT winning. Klatt wants the Big 12 and Big Ten to compete.
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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU
Pretty excited to see Smith get some of the screens and hitches Schooler and Money have been getting. Despite his tds last year, I feel like we've yet to see the elusiveness and speed he showed in his film.
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Denis Villeneuve's Dune
Do the facts about navigators changing their form show up in later books? Because I have no memory of that from reading Dune.
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Fire Mike Yurcich
All the people losing their minds over who's calling plays, have you factored in that Kai money was playing significant snaps? That the beginning and end of the game when Josh Moore was healthy was the part of the game where we opened things up? Tarik Black barely played due to injury. Moore missed most of the middle of the game. Whittington was out. Smith was out. Schooler doesn't seem to know much of the playbook yet. Eagles appeared unreliable in week 1. I wasn't happy with the calls either but with the running backs we have and the receivers we didn't have, I at least understand the thought behind limiting things. Scoring 56 in regulation under those circumstances certainly isn't enough for me to go ape shit and claim things are the same as always.
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Chris Ash Defense
One crazy stat? Texas Tech scored on only 3 of their first 9 offensive possessions. I feel like we would take 3/9 in most Big 12 games. It fell apart after that though.
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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU
Iowa State averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 9.2 yards per pass against TCU's defense. Iowa State averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 4.1 yards per pass against Louisiana.
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Texas opens as a 16 point favorite v TCU
Maybe the line is -16 because Iowa State got routed by Louisiana and then beat TCU. I dunno just a possibility. TCU isn't good, Texas will probably be healthier than they were yesterday, Texas will be at home, and Texas probably just woke up.
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2020 Texas Football Season Thread: Win or GTFO
You get the chance to have two disappointing 1-1 teams in the primetime slot, you gotta take it.
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This was an amazing win
They flawlessly executed an onside kick, made the field goal attempt, and blocked a punt for a TD. There are clearly some issues, but a Charlie Strong special teams wouldn't have been able to do those things.
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2020 Texas Football Season Thread: Win or GTFO
OU sucks and all, but the 2018 OU team won the conference despite winning games 59-56, 48-47, 55-40 (Kansas), 51-46, and losing 48-45. The good news is it appears Texas can score at will when allowed to by the coaches (less runs on first down please) despite playing without three of the four top receivers for most of the game.
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Chris Ash Defense
The onside kick, muffed punt, pick in our end, Thompson getting hurt, and just general average starting field possession all impacted the defense. The interceptions and defense in OT are encouraging. But 56 points is terrible no matter how you slice it. The 3rd down defense was atrocious. Our strategy to attack trips is stupid imo. Hopefully Ash is a guy who will adjust because offenses are going to look about like this in probably 5 of our 8 remaining games.