What I'm saying is that we have no evidence that the model is far off at the moment.
If you want to be pissed about polls in Iowa and Texas, be pissed off. But 538 had dozens of scenarios where Biden lost those states and still won the election.
It's important to read what one criticizes.
If a guy says someone has an 89% chance of winning and you interpret that to mean it's going to be a blowout, it says more about your understanding of probability than it does the guy himself.
Go look at the 538 forecast and you will see numerous scenarios as close as the one we're seeing unfold.
Also, there's a very decent chance Biden wins several of these states as mail in votes get counted.
I think it says something about the personalities on Surly that y'all freak me out into an anxiety attack and Karl fucking Rove somehow calms me down and convinces me Biden still has a very real shot.
I get that most of tonight isn't a surprise based on the polls. I didn't really expect Texas, NC or Ohio.
The thing I don't get is how Wisconsin is even close. The polls were consistently Biden by 7-11. How could they be that wrong that often?
Just voted for Biden in Tarrant County. Took about 3 minutes.
I have three siblings who are all conservative evangelicals and each has a conservative evangelical spouse. All 6 of them will be voting for a democrat in a presidential election for the first time. My Mom was born in the 50s and I believe this will be her first time as well.
I'm curious if Biden can win Tarrant county. Hillary lost it by about 8 points but 3% went to Gary Johnson.
Do we really have to motion Whittington in every single play? Maybe we wouldn't have a false start if we didn't have to wait for the exact same formation and motion over and over and over again.
-offside call where the ref correctly called false start then changed it
-pass interference they correctly called then took back
-holding call they correctly called then took back
Because Fox financially benefits when the Big 12 is good. Klatt sounded as sad about OU losing last weekend as Brando and Tillman did about UT winning.
Klatt wants the Big 12 and Big Ten to compete.
Pretty excited to see Smith get some of the screens and hitches Schooler and Money have been getting. Despite his tds last year, I feel like we've yet to see the elusiveness and speed he showed in his film.
All the people losing their minds over who's calling plays, have you factored in that Kai money was playing significant snaps? That the beginning and end of the game when Josh Moore was healthy was the part of the game where we opened things up?
Tarik Black barely played due to injury. Moore missed most of the middle of the game. Whittington was out. Smith was out. Schooler doesn't seem to know much of the playbook yet. Eagles appeared unreliable in week 1.
I wasn't happy with the calls either but with the running backs we have and the receivers we didn't have, I at least understand the thought behind limiting things.
Scoring 56 in regulation under those circumstances certainly isn't enough for me to go ape shit and claim things are the same as always.
One crazy stat? Texas Tech scored on only 3 of their first 9 offensive possessions.
I feel like we would take 3/9 in most Big 12 games. It fell apart after that though.
Iowa State averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 9.2 yards per pass against TCU's defense.
Iowa State averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 4.1 yards per pass against Louisiana.
Maybe the line is -16 because Iowa State got routed by Louisiana and then beat TCU. I dunno just a possibility.
TCU isn't good, Texas will probably be healthier than they were yesterday, Texas will be at home, and Texas probably just woke up.
They flawlessly executed an onside kick, made the field goal attempt, and blocked a punt for a TD. There are clearly some issues, but a Charlie Strong special teams wouldn't have been able to do those things.
OU sucks and all, but the 2018 OU team won the conference despite winning games 59-56, 48-47, 55-40 (Kansas), 51-46, and losing 48-45.
The good news is it appears Texas can score at will when allowed to by the coaches (less runs on first down please) despite playing without three of the four top receivers for most of the game.
The onside kick, muffed punt, pick in our end, Thompson getting hurt, and just general average starting field possession all impacted the defense.
The interceptions and defense in OT are encouraging.
But 56 points is terrible no matter how you slice it. The 3rd down defense was atrocious. Our strategy to attack trips is stupid imo. Hopefully Ash is a guy who will adjust because offenses are going to look about like this in probably 5 of our 8 remaining games.