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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Hank Chinaski
    Hells yes, my desk has always been a goddamned disaster; now it all makes sense.
  2. Hank Chinaski
    10 K, 1 BB by the lineup today. Nice work, fellas. Crane’s hubris and nonchalance about having nobody run the organization this past winter is coming home to roost. Perhaps an analytically-inclined GM wouldn’t have outbid himself for the right to overpay an old 1B with diminished bat speed. (That this is the first year of his deal, not the last, is a sobering thought.)
  3. Hank Chinaski
    Haha why in the hell would anyone actually be upset about a representative of a future conference member attending a meeting? “They shouldn’t be allowed to attend a meeting until 2024!” What the holy fuck does it possibly matter? These imbeciles will bitch about absolutely anything Texas does, and feel victimized by it.
  4. Hank Chinaski
    Bregman’s expected wOBA is .358, right in line with his career mark. I realize that you get no points for this, but it basically tells you that his Ks and BBS are good and his contact quality is the same as always. It suggests some bad luck. No real reason to worry about him. Abreu is a different story. His expected wOBA is .278; his average exit velo is way down, his walks are down, his strikeouts are up. He is a mess. Definite cause for concern.
  5. Hank Chinaski
  6. Hank Chinaski
    What a weird thing to do. They were the Tennessee Oilers for what, 2 years? People in Nashville don’t give a shit about that name/logo. I’m all for the throwback thing, but that is usually because it celebrates a different era of the team. I can’t see a celebration of the 1997-98 Tennessee Oilers moving the needle for any fan of that franchise. Also, it this is done just to “troll” houstonians, I’d change the Texans uniforms to something as closely resembling the oilers as legally possible, including the logo.
  7. Hank Chinaski
  8. Hank Chinaski
    I mean, I said last year that the 2022 Astros reminded me of the 2006 Astros, so prepare to join the club.
  9. Hank Chinaski
    Altuve was the 4th best hitter in MLB last year, about 65% better than league average. Since 2016 he’s been 52%, 60%, 35%, 37%, 28% and 64% better than league average (2020 doesn’t count). It’s fair to say he should be around 30-40% better than average this year. Maricio Dubon currently is 2% worse than league average and has a slugging% of .385. In his career he has been 6%, 1%, 26%, and 42% worse than average. It’s generous to say that he should be 5-10% below average this year. Jose Altuve is a massive, massive, enormous offensive upgrade over Maricio Dubon.
  10. Hank Chinaski
    Tucker’s actual results are still pretty far behind his expected results (based on contact quality, BB and K), even though his expected numbers have dropped a bit in the last week or so. He’s had some bad luck, as has Bregman. Unfortunately, the rest of the crappy lineup cannot tolerate bad luck from the 3 good hitters.
  11. Hank Chinaski
    It should. Replacing Dubon with Altuve figures to be a massive upgrade. Replacing Quad A with Brantley should be an upgrade. McCormick will help. Though that offensive improvement will probably be offset by replacing 40% of the rotation with Bielak and whoever else.
  12. Hank Chinaski
    I think the issue is…they’re just not very good. We’re talking about a lineup featuring Dubon, Maldonado, Meyers, a washed-up Abreu, Hensley/Julks, and Pena almost every day. That’s 2/3 of the lineup made up of quad-A guys, an old 1B whose skill level has significantly declined, and a SS who struggles to recognize balls out of the zone. If that were any other team, we wouldn’t be expecting much from them. It’s just an objectively mediocre/bad lineup, totally dependent on Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker.
  13. Hank Chinaski
    Yes.
  14. Hank Chinaski
    15 straight scoreless innings.
  15. Hank Chinaski
    …or replace the manager.
  16. Hank Chinaski
    Diaz looks good enough defensively…and Fangraphs gave him a 50-grade “fielding” tool in the preseason (he was their 80th overall prospect), which is average. He’s fine defensively.
  17. Hank Chinaski
    He was right about Abreu.
  18. Hank Chinaski
    Whitley last posted an ERA under (or anything remotely close to) 3.50 in 2017 between (mostly) A and AA. It is currently 6.00 (7.22 FIP) in the PCL.
  19. Hank Chinaski
    This is/was my thinking. You can say we went into the season with 6 starters, but there’s context: 1. LMJ is oft-injured, coming off a season in which he made 8 starts, with no real timetable. He’s thrown more than 130 innings exactly once in his 6 seasons (excluding 2020). 2. Brown is a rookie who threw 126 innings between AAA/MLB last year - a career high for a single season. My perspective is that if these are 2 of your six starters, you lack depth. Now, if the club had reason to believe that anyone they could have signed to a 1-year deal was unlikely to be significantly better than Bielak or Whitley or someone else, fine. They may be right. I’d just feel more confident in that if they, you know, had a general manager/front office leadership making that decision.
  20. Hank Chinaski
    I wouldn’t have counted on McCullers. I thought I made that clear.
  21. Hank Chinaski
    No.
  22. Hank Chinaski
    I guess our disagreement stems from the idea that LMJ should have ever been counted on as a reliable starting pitcher. I’m of the opinion that he isn’t.
  23. Hank Chinaski
    *Sixth. And there were six guys last year. There was plenty of discussion around potentially adding rotation depth. Fair point regarding the farm system, but Brown kinda is that guy this year, no? Hopefully there is another that can plug in and perform reasonably well.
  24. Hank Chinaski
    Except McCullers was already down. So it was really 5. They should have brought in someone. Eovaldi is an example. Someone like that. And no, he specifically is not setting the world on fire yet, but he has a track record and I’d take my chances on him over some quad-A guy.
  25. Hank Chinaski
    In 238 games, Chas has a 113 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR (so, around 3.3 per 160 games). That’s not prime George Springer or anything, but it is significantly better than “just a guy.” Though, in fairness, he is “just a guy” against righties…but an all-star against lefties.

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