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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Hank Chinaski
    Nah, Bregman’s underlying data always looked fine. Even two weeks ago, he was hitting the ball as hard as always, striking out and walking as frequently as always, etc. It was clearly bad luck that was driving his poor outcomes and there was no reason at all to worry about him. You can’t say that about Abreu. His contact quality is way down. His strikeouts are way up. We’ve reached a point in the season at which this data tends to stabilize. The Keith Law critique was based on signs that his bat speed was slowing down. That looks prescient right now. I’m not saying he’s done, but there are real indicators that he could be in decline; he wouldn’t be the first guy whose skill and production fell off a cliff in the second half of his 30s.
  2. Hank Chinaski
    Was hoping Bijan would go to a team with a good QB. Falcons may not be a bad fit, since they do have an offensive system geared to run and has been successful doing so even with subpar QB play. Unfortunately he’ll look ridiculous because of those those fucking hideous XFL uniforms they wear.
  3. Hank Chinaski
    Is he aware it isn’t 1982 anymore?
  4. Hank Chinaski
    The Rays are good. Obviously they won’t continue to win 80% of their games, but they’re really good. Their offense should slow down (though should be solidly above average) but the pitching is legit.
  5. Hank Chinaski
    Who the fuck are these douchebags
  6. Hank Chinaski
    That’s probably not much worse than today’s major league lineup.
  7. Hank Chinaski
  8. Hank Chinaski
    It’s all true. It’s also why nobody should expect it to change that drastically when Altuve does come back. He should be worth about 3 wins over 60% of a season (which is great, but it’s not going to turn this team into a real contender). This team will be in a dogfight for a wild card spot. Hopefully.
  9. Hank Chinaski
    Oh I agree. I just went down a rabbit hole of Dubon savant data (never thought I’d utter that sentence) and noticed his contact and K rates. He’s nearing sufficient PAs for those to be meaningful. If he has turned himself into something like an average hitter, that would be great.
  10. Hank Chinaski
    Dubon is striking out way less than he has throughout his career. We should know if this is real or not in the next few weeks (he’s also walking less, but not by much). For now, his contact rates are up. He’s not hitting the ball any harder or barreling it more frequently, though his “weak” contact is down. He’s hitting more ground balls and line drives so far. Also hitting it to opposite field more. We’ll see if he has made real adjustments and if they continue to pay off. His .346 BABIP is likely to come down (his career rate is .278), and with a sub-4% BB rate, so will his offensive value. Still, it’s not out of the question that he has made some changes/improvements, and he could perhaps be an average-ish hitter.
  11. Hank Chinaski
    I mean, you’re right…calling someone “Chris Simms 2.0”, and believing that this is somehow a negative thing/implies failure, is fucking idiotic; but in fairness to these dipshits, half of our own fan base would think the same thing.
  12. Hank Chinaski
    Right, words don’t exist (in English anyway) to describe it. I think I first realized this in earnest when I witnessed them trying to rationalize the 2005 season. If asked, they’d tell you that VY wasn’t even a real QB, Mack was a bad coach, and the rest of the players were overrated. But they’d also say that the success of any of those three entities (VY, Mack, rest of team) was made possible only by their being buoyed by other two (who they’d discredit if taken individually). It truly was (and remains) a step beyond just regular, everyday cognitive dissonance.
  13. Hank Chinaski
    Wait, are they under the impression that Manning is competing for the starting QB job on 2023? Wtf.
  14. Hank Chinaski
    I mean, he went to a WS with each of them, and won one.
  15. Hank Chinaski
    Or with a mediocre pitching staff.
  16. Hank Chinaski
  17. Hank Chinaski
    Agreed, they’re the only opponent who has failed to win their series against the Astros in 2023.
  18. Hank Chinaski
    Together, they should play an elite third base.
  19. Hank Chinaski
    Yes, but a 25% K rate is a signal, and we get new data points every day.
  20. Hank Chinaski
    They’ve had stretches like this the last few years for sure. Thing is, Springer, Correa, Verlander, Cole, Altuve (for a long time) aren’t walking through that door.
  21. Hank Chinaski
    What you’re saying is reasonable and I hope you’re right; but I disagree with this part. Fangraphs projects 88 wins right now, and that’s based on nothing but objective data. Now obviously they don’t always nail it, but it is objective support for my subjective forecast. I am probably not as high on Brown (at least for this year) as others, and he’s essentially replacing the best performing pitcher in baseball. Again, if he allows twice the runs JV did (per inning), I’d be ecstatic. I’d bet the over. I’m also not that high on Pena. He’s good (not great) defensively (gold glove notwithstanding) and he’s not a very good offensive player. I don’t see any reason to assume he’ll improve at the plate just because he has a year in the bigs. He’s probably a 100 wRC+ guy unless he stops swinging at bullshit (which, to this point, he’s shown no inclination to do).
  22. Hank Chinaski
    Loss of Verlander’s 1.75 ERA over 175 innings + loss of Altuve and his career-best OPS+ for at least 40% of the season (and what we do get is unlikely to be as good as last year) + regression from the bullpen. That all adds up. Over 95? What am I missing here?
  23. Hank Chinaski
    What management? We didn’t need management this off-season because we’re the Astros.
  24. Hank Chinaski
    Fair enough. That’s what I thought before Altuve injury. I’m seeing 85-88 at this point. This team seems maybe a tick better than mediocre.
  25. Hank Chinaski
    How many wins do you think they finish with? Give me a number or a small range. If you had to bet.

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