I tend to go by the value metrics. I understand that they aren’t perfect, but they are the best we’ve got at determining player value. It’s complicated because there is no real basis of comparison for Ohtani, aside from adding his position player/pitching WAR. For example, there may be an adjustment needed because he’s a great hitter and pitcher all tied up into a single roster spot; that has obvious value, but how do we quantify that?
I don’t know, and so I’d be inclined to go by the value metrics that we currently have which, like them or not, are used (in some form or fashion) universally in MLB. So I’d go with Judge based on the numbers that, ironically, Helo hates so much (WAR). He’s had an historic offensive year while playing reasonably good defense at a premium position. Ohtani offensively has not been in the same universe as Judge this year, and I don’t think the pitching numbers make up for the delta. Again, acknowledging that we may one day look back at this and say it was obviously Ohtani. But with what we know now, I’d vote for Judge.