Ok, counterpoints:
1) Soto is 23. This isn’t anything like giving a 31 year old Albert Pujols a 10-year deal. Signing him now gets you what figures to be the entire prime of his career.
2) you have to consider just how good of a hitter the guy is. What he’s done at such a young age puts him in the most elite of elite company in the history of baseball.
3) Trout’s deal isn’t the reason that the Angels can’t get out of their own way. They paid a ton for Rendon despite his injury history…and lo and behold, he’s been injured for most of his time there. They took on Justin Upton’s contract. They paid geriatric Pujols $30 million for several years. The Trout deal is fine, it’s all the other dumb decisions they’ve made that have been the problem. The Rangers got lambasted for the A-Rod deal, but it turned out that that wasn’t a bad contract at all. $25 million at the end of that deal was not $25 million at the beginning, just as $40 million in 2022 won’t be $40 million in 2037.
Signing Soto doesn’t guarantee a team will become a winner; any club will obviously have to have a good team around him. And I totally agree that there is a good argument to be made that tying up that much money in any player is too risky. But given the Tatis and Lindor contracts…why wouldn’t Soto ask for more? That’s just the market.
If it were me, I’d probably not tie up that much money into one guy. But I don’t think it’s necessarily foolish to do so if you are, say, Cohen and the Mets. That’s a good team, and a guy like Soto in that lineup makes them a lot better. It takes some spotlight away from the Yankees. And it doesn’t necessarily cripple them from a payroll perspective- they may decide they’ll just pay the luxury tax for a while like the Dodgers have.
Again, what I find more interesting is whether they’re willing to pay Soto, the luxury tax, and the prospects it would take to get him now and start negotiating. Now you’re talking about paying him way more than the $500 million.