Hank Chinaski

Yup, Correa is better. But when you factor in age, cost, control, etc, like you said - it’s a no-brainer. Yup, in a short series, elite is absolutely overrated. Elite matters a lot more over 162 games than it does over 7 games (which is why I like fewer playoff teams, not more, but oh well).

I don’t think they were throwing in any towels - I think they were sticking to the plan that was laid out years ago. They’re just not going to give out huge contracts for guys into their 30s, as we’ve discussed extensively. The only reason we had elite teams was because that core was all young and inexpensive at the same time. And yeah - Pena is at 2.5 fWAR 1/3 of the way through his rookie year, at $700k. Correa is at 1.2 fWAR at $35 million, and has missed 1/3 of his team’s games. That’s why this is the plan. I don’t hate the plan.

Maybe. it would be terrific if Alvarez could play 1B, but didn't we try that a couple years ago and he was a disaster? I could be misremembering. And while the offense has been frustrating, the Astros as a team are 6th in MLB in wRC+ (111). It’s hard to see, but you have to keep in mind how shitty overall offense has been in MLB this year. The Astros are hitting .238/.316/.409. Last year, TOR hit .266/.330/.466 as a team and that was good for a 112 wRC+. Pretty much every team is hitting like shit in 2022. All that said, I agree that this is no longer an elite team. It’s a good team. It wasn’t going to last forever I guess.

I think this is a 85-90 win team. So, pretty good. Not a bad team, certainly not a special team. Probably good enough to win this division. I think over the remaining 2/3 of the season, we’ll see the pitching get a little worse (I think Garcia, Urquidy and Javier and pretty average, I don’t expect LMJ back this year, etc) and the offense get a little better (Bregman should be better, Meyers may give a little boost, maybe they get a 1B).

I thought this was hyperbole, so I looked up our production from the catcher spot in 2022. Holy dogshit. .127/.209/.222; 29 wRC+; -1 fWAR (and that’s with a positive defensive rating). I mean dear fucking lord. But not to worry - Korey Lee has a 56 wRC+ in AAA.

The good news is that Bregman is still elite in terms of plate discipline - K%, BB%, chase %, etc. That sets his production floor pretty high (I think we’re seeing it right now). His contact quality is still reasonably fine (it never was elite). That BABIP will come up.

Not sure. Going just by the Statcast info, he’s seeing slightly fewer fastballs, but not by a large margin. Don’t know about location, sequencing, etc.

Yeah, his xwOBA is currently at .360, his actual wOBA is .319, so he’s -.041 (his SLG% is -.078 compared to his expected SLG%). And it’s not only that, but in each of his ‘18-‘19 seasons, his actual wOBA was far higher than his xwOBA (+.027 and +.045). He’s hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, as consistently as he ever has. The results just aren’t there. Between the large negative gap between is xSLG% and actual SLG% and an exceptionally low BABIP of .228, I’d still expect the results to come. I think I’ve read that the expected stats may be in need of some adjustment with the weird balls this season, so maybe that’s part of it, I don’t really know. I also remember writing in early 2018 that I expected Bregman to be a good player, occasional All-Star type, but not an MVP type of guy. Then 2018-2019 happened and I felt like a dumbass. I’m not saying I’m not a dumbass (many people could make a compelling case that I absolutely am), but I expect that those two seasons to probably be his best over his career. And that’s fine, those were 8-win seasons; I just think (a) 8-win seasons are only consistently posted by surefire HOFers, and (b) he’s probably more of a 4-5 win player. Which is great, and something we all would like to see in 2022.

I guess it’s not that rare if 1/6 of the league has done it in the last calendar year.

Yordan and Tucker (and Pena) probably wouldn’t get it too bad. Then again, there are a bunch of goddamned imbeciles.

And now he is hurt and left the game I’m getting concerned that Trout’s career arc is going to resemble Griffey’s. Both appeared to be inner-circle HOFers throughout their 20s. Griffey couldn’t stay healthy after his age-30 season and never again really resembled the guy he was in his 20s. Trout played in 36 games last year, and if this groin injury persists… I do think Trout is a better hitter than Griffey was, and his production when he’s been healthy the last few years hasn’t dropped off at all, despite the reduced playing time, so it probably won’t be a 1:1 comparison. But I’m hoping he has a few more healthy seasons.

Maybe. But here is how his current numbers compare to his best year (2019, 2022): Hard Hit %: 38%; 37.6% AVG exit velo: 89.3; 89.1 Barrel %: 4.8%; 7% xSLG: .453; .450 You’re right, his launch angle is higher this year (19.6 in 2019, 20.4 this year), but by the overall statcast numbers, he doesn’t look that different. I know these don’t tell you everything, but it seems he is due for some regression.

He hasn’t. He has a 116 wRC+ with a .225 BABIP (career BABIP is .287). His expected stats indicate he’s had some bad luck too, and are in line with his career figures. I’d expect his results to start improving soon.

“Bought a LHN”? Is this guy suggesting that UT bought the Longhorn Network? Interesting interpretation of the arrangement between espn and UT.

Didn’t see the game. Saw that we were 5/27 (.185) on balls in play. Gonna assume it was just one of those days.

Nah, he’ll get a shot. What you’re getting at is that he may not be drafted as highly as you might expect, and that prospect writers will not rate him highly because of these attributes. Their logic is that he’ll have to hit at a really high level to make it in MLB because he’s a righty 1B (and thus doesn’t offer a lot of value elsewhere). So he has less room for error. But he’ll still get a chance. Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t that highly regarded at one point either. He is, of course, an outlier.

Texas went 52-11 from 2000-2004. That is objectively not mediocre. I know I know, losses to OU, a CCG meltdown and a bad bowl game. Regardless, this was not a mediocre 5-year span.

The Astros won the AL pennant and were 2-5 against the Tigers last season. 3-3 against the 110-loss Orioles. Baseball is weird.

Eh…I think you could at least make a case for the Lofton trade being just about as bad. Consider: (a) we got absolutely no value out of Lofton and got back absolutely no value in return; (b) Lofton would go on to be worth over 5 WAR per season over the next 8 years, playing a position at which those teams were never particularly strong. Then consider the teams Lofton would have played for. Prime Lofton, Biggio, Bagwell hitting 1-3 for the entire 90s…holy shit. Those were playoff teams and adding a guy like Lofton could have nudged them forward enough to get over the hump. He was the perfect complimentary player for those teams - elite defensive CF (in the Dome) who was on base 40% of the time and stealing bases better than anyone in the sport. Obviously Morgan was a better player than Lofton, but the circumstances make a difference, and at least the Astros did get some good years out of Morgan before they traded him. The Morgan trade is the worst in terms of the caliber of the player they traded, just saying that the Lofton trade was absolutely awful and isn’t far behind, all things considered.

Saw this. The author writes: ”The assumption here is that every team, if it digs deep enough, could cobble together a group of players with enough future value to match the Nationals’ needs.” I disagree strongly with that assumption. And I don’t think the Astros are one of the very few teams who could. I’d be shocked if Soto gets traded this year. This article is a year too early.

Bell is a realistic target - a good (not great) player nearing free agency on a horrid team who could be had at a reasonably low cost. He objectively appears to be an upgrade at the most glaring current problematic position. But, as discussed, it probably creates a practical roster issue and my guess is that we’ll roll with Yuli and hope he turns it around. I’m not optimistic that he will.

This. I probably wouldn’t expect great offensive production from CF, even after Meyers returns, but overall I don’t think that CF is some kind of black hole. They’re good defenders (important with Brantley or Yordan in LF), good on the bases, and average-ish hitters. That’s ok. The biggest offensive problem right now, by far, is 1B. That’s obviously an offense-first position and Yuli currently has a 82 wRC+, and the underlying metrics don’t indicate that it’s bad luck. I don’t see any organizational solutions here. Josh Bell seems like a potential target, but given Yuli’s stature in the org/clubhouse (it’s hard to see him being DFA’d), I don’t know how that would work. (I don’t think Bell would be all that prospect-expensive.)

Holy shit that’s spectacular. How have I never seen this before?

1. Astros - grew up going to games at the Dome; my first real sports heartbreak was the ‘86 NLCS against the Mets (Craig Reynolds was fucking safe at first); loved those Bagwell/Biggio teams that couldn’t quite get over the hump (and I am still sick about trading Kenny Lofton); loved the Lunhow rebuild every step of the way (and no, I don’t give a flying fuck about sign-stealing, everyone did it and everyone has done it since baseball started). Baseball is my favorite sport. [HUGE gap] 2. Longhorns football - this was #1 a while back, but college football has become pro football except with worse players and no rules related to roster construction. Recruiting is no longer interesting. Every player is a free agent after every season. I am finding it difficult to care much when the entire game has become centered around which team can come up with the best NIL strategy to sign players. The sport is broken. I’m sure one of these years we will have the best team because we paid the most. Great? Thats pretty much it. After the Oilers left I haven’t really had any specific NFL team I care about, though I’ll still watch games because I like the sport. Not much of an NBA fan since the Jordan/Olajuwon/Barkley/Ewing era ended in the late 90s. College basketball has been what college football has become for decades; I just don’t care.