Hank Chinaski

Damn, Carlos Delgado hit 473 HR. I’d have guessed he was around 400 without looking it up. I know he was a one-dimensional player in a heavy offense era, but that’s strong. .280/.383/.546 career line.

Meyers had a 111 wRC+ in MLB last year. Leon has a 116 wRC+ in AAA right now. I’d give Meyers a look first. I agree that he’s no sure thing, but neither is Leon, who is still striking out at an alarming rate in the minors.

Apparently we’re in one of those stretches where they just play like shit. Reminiscent of getting their asses kicked by the Tigers and Orioles last year.

Most of his value so far this year, yeah; he’s slugging at the lowest rate of his career. My guess is that he’ll be better from here out. His expected stats and BABIP indicate he’s had some bad luck.

To me, Bregman and Yuli will determine whether the offense is just good or great. We pretty much know what we’ll get from Altuve, Brantley, Yordan and Tucker. Pena probably won’t sustain this pace (although there is nothing fluky about his start based on the statcast data), but I think he’ll be a good offensive player. I doubt we’ll see the ‘18-‘19 Bregman again (maybe the deadened balls are to blame), but I think he’ll continue to be a good hitter. Yuli, I'm not so sure. There are some bad signs underlying his poor performance that aren’t there for Bregman (Ks are up, BB are down, not hitting the ball hard, etc.). Age may be catching up with him. And the Astros haven’t had a 9-deep lineup throughout this 2015-present era of dominant offenses. There hasn’t been production from C. Most of those years the OF only started 2 good offensive players (Reddick wasn’t a very good hitter), and before 2019 (Yordan/Brantley), DH wasn’t particularly strong. They aren’t going to be anything like 2019, but if Yuli can pick it up and be mostly what he’s been the last few seasons, the offense will be one of the best in MLB.

He’s not as good as Ted Williams.

They’re tied for 6th in MLB in team wRC+. And that’s with Yordan and Tucker both being fairly unlucky so far (contact quality versus results). We’ve all become accustomed to them leading MLB (and being historically good) in this category, and Bregman doesn’t seem quite right, but they haven’t been terrible (like they were for about the first two weeks of the season), they’ve actually been good offensively. We’re just used to great.

I agree with all of this, except I’d argue that college football less interesting than the NFL…and the NFL isn’t that interesting. Yeah yeah, part of that is that Texas has been boringly bad for years, but mostly it’s because of all the other points being made in this page.

Here are Bregman’s expected wOBA numbers for his career: 2016: .305 2017: .337 2018: .369 2019: .373 2020: 332 2021: .332 2022: .357 In 2018 and 2019 his actual wOBA outperformed his expected - by a lot (.396 and .418, respectively); this year, his actual is underperforming (he’s at .344). One thought - Alex hit a lot of HRs in 18-19, but he wasn’t posting elite xWOBA numbers (based on his contact quality) and it’s not like he was ever hitting tape-measure Yordan-esque shots. He knows how to hit in MMP. If the balls are really deadened, I could see that impacting Bregman more than others. My guess: he’s been a tad unlucky so far this season; his contact quality hasn’t been bad, but it hasn’t been as good as it was in 18-19 (it’s been mostly in line with all his other seasons). He’ll end up with solid numbers. He doesn’t suck, obviously, but he is probably more “all-star-ish” than “MVP-ish.” Which is who I thought he’d be before 2018-2019 happened.

(well, 2, but this is what came to mind when I looked at the box score just now.)

It really, really is. Why would you intentionally reduce your run production probabilities, even if the reduction is slight? It just doesn’t make any sense and isn’t justifiable.

Of the three, I’d guess that Brown is most likely to get meaningful MLB time. Service time considerations are probably not all that important, as none of the 3 are particularly young (by prospect standards) or project to be superstars. Leon in striking out in 1 out of every 3 plate appearances in AAA. I’m not sure he’ll be ready to contribute in 2022. Lee is hitting .216/.264/.425 and striking out almost as frequently as Leon. I wouldn’t count on either of them for much of anything this year. Brown could be a bullpen arm or spot starter later in the season. Based on his BB%, he still has some control/command issues.

I’d say Alvarez. His bat is elite and has been since he entered the league. Tucker’s bat is very good, his defense is good, his base running is good, etc. But I’d take the elite hitter over the very good all-around player.

0-13, 4 K, 2 BB for the 3-6 hitters. Those games are often difficult to win.

Also, Lee is hitting .221/.270/.435 in AAA, and is striking out 28% of the time. He’s not exactly forcing his way to the big leagues right now.

Man I loved Michael Bourn. I get why we traded him but damn I loved watching him play.

Gonna have to disagree with you there. Bagwell has one of the best career rate (not counting) stat slash lines (.297/.408/.540) of any 1B in the history of baseball. That’s in 2,150 games and almost 9,500 PAs. He had a career OPS+ of 149, meaning he was about 50% better than the average MLB hitter over 15 years. You can’t possibly chalk that up to only hitting well against crappy pitchers.

I mean, their October performance was probably impacted more by the fact that the majority of their postseason ABs came against 3 HOFers (and their notoriously expanded strike zones) and peak Kevin Brown (borderline HOF) than it was by the fatigue that came from playing a few extra games over the previous 6 months. Anyway, yeah, if the guys today believe they’re more physically able in October by sitting out 15 games in the regular season, then go for it (as long as you make it to October, which is now easier than ever I suppose).

I agree, but I think that, again, there is no realistic way to get fair value for him with 2.5 years of team control in almost any scenario. We could offer Leon, Garcia, Javier, Brown and Whitley and I’d bet Washington would say “no” today. That deal doesn’t really make sense for the Astros or the Nationals. And that’s the problem. Someone like Baltimore could probably get him for Rutschman and Rodriguez (and maybe a few other guys) but that doesn’t make any sense for the Orioles. That’s the problem - his team control/salary/value just make it almost impossible to trade him right now, unless Washington is willing to take less than they should.

Right now, Soto is almost like the situation Trout was in before his big extension - it’s almost impossible to design a trade for him because the amount a team would have to give up is unrealistic. And this is why there are people in this thread saying that there is no way they’d give up certain packages for him, and Washington probably wouldn’t accept those same packages either. He’s just too damned good at his current salary/control. When he becomes a 1-year rental or less, that can change. But he’s not getting traded this year. I’m sure Washington is trying to extend him. More likely he’ll become a FA, but the Nationals aren’t going to give up in that in 2022. Either way, he’ll get an absolute shitload of money.

Yup, that’s pretty much his reputation.

Oh yeah, MLB screws with the balls and pretends they don’t. MLB has trouble getting out of its own way.

The good stats do. The ones that are relative to the league. wRC+, OPS+, etc. The absolute/counting numbers? Sure, those don’t, and anyone who understands baseball data knows that (and that’s why we have season-relative metrics).