Jump to content

Hank Chinaski

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    3544
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Oof. So the Angels paid $70 million for him to play in 103 games and produce 1.2 fWAR over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. They’ll be paying him $35mm annually for the next 4 years. He’ll be 33 next season. I think I know why the Angels can’t ever get over the hump…
  2. He does spend, but he’s spent it foolishly. Maybe that’s on his GMs, not sure how those decisions were made. But that Pujols contract always looked absurd, as he was clearly paying a guy in his 30s (and into his 40s) for production from his 20s.
  3. They’ve paid a lot of money to Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson and Justin Upton over the last decade. They have not gotten a lot of value out of those investments. Rendon could still turn it around, but so far that signing hasn’t paid off either.
  4. Nice seats.
  5. Altuve has 1829 hits, meaning that he’s 1231 hits away from Biggio. Throwing out the Covid season, he’s averaged about 162 hits/year over the last 3 (‘18, ‘19, ‘21). So, he’d need to keep up that pace for another 7.5 years to get there. That takes him to age 39, and that’s assuming he doesn’t slow down. I hope he gets there, but I’d bet the under. Yordan has 78 HR, so 371 behind Bagwell. If he averages 35 HR/year for the next 11 years he’d pass Bagwell. That takes him to age 36. He’s never actually hit 35 HR in a year though, so let’s give him 30/year. Then it takes him a little over 12 years, meaning he’d have to average 30 through age 37. If I had to bet on one or the other, I’d probably bet on Yordan. But the odds are against either of them.
  6. He is referring to what Goldy did not Betts right, Beau Vine and SB Bruin were arguing over who was hotter (in terms of recent hitting performance, I think) between Goldy and Betts a few weeks back. BV’s post was meant to highlight the fact that Betts has cooled off and Goldschmidt has remained locked in. That’s why I commented on Goldschmidt’s day.
  7. 6/8 with 3 HR, 1 BB and 8 RBI is a solid day at the office.
  8. Astros entered the game with a .607 win%. That’s a 98-win pace. This is not a 98-win team. We are in the midst of a record correction. I think this is an 85-90 win team (.525-.555). So I’d expect the curve to continue to inch downward a little and then stabilize over time (winning % by game, 2022):
  9. Yup, Correa is better. But when you factor in age, cost, control, etc, like you said - it’s a no-brainer. Yup, in a short series, elite is absolutely overrated. Elite matters a lot more over 162 games than it does over 7 games (which is why I like fewer playoff teams, not more, but oh well).
  10. I don’t think they were throwing in any towels - I think they were sticking to the plan that was laid out years ago. They’re just not going to give out huge contracts for guys into their 30s, as we’ve discussed extensively. The only reason we had elite teams was because that core was all young and inexpensive at the same time. And yeah - Pena is at 2.5 fWAR 1/3 of the way through his rookie year, at $700k. Correa is at 1.2 fWAR at $35 million, and has missed 1/3 of his team’s games. That’s why this is the plan. I don’t hate the plan.
  11. Maybe. it would be terrific if Alvarez could play 1B, but didn't we try that a couple years ago and he was a disaster? I could be misremembering. And while the offense has been frustrating, the Astros as a team are 6th in MLB in wRC+ (111). It’s hard to see, but you have to keep in mind how shitty overall offense has been in MLB this year. The Astros are hitting .238/.316/.409. Last year, TOR hit .266/.330/.466 as a team and that was good for a 112 wRC+. Pretty much every team is hitting like shit in 2022. All that said, I agree that this is no longer an elite team. It’s a good team. It wasn’t going to last forever I guess.
  12. I think this is a 85-90 win team. So, pretty good. Not a bad team, certainly not a special team. Probably good enough to win this division. I think over the remaining 2/3 of the season, we’ll see the pitching get a little worse (I think Garcia, Urquidy and Javier and pretty average, I don’t expect LMJ back this year, etc) and the offense get a little better (Bregman should be better, Meyers may give a little boost, maybe they get a 1B).
  13. I thought this was hyperbole, so I looked up our production from the catcher spot in 2022. Holy dogshit. .127/.209/.222; 29 wRC+; -1 fWAR (and that’s with a positive defensive rating). I mean dear fucking lord. But not to worry - Korey Lee has a 56 wRC+ in AAA.
  14. The good news is that Bregman is still elite in terms of plate discipline - K%, BB%, chase %, etc. That sets his production floor pretty high (I think we’re seeing it right now). His contact quality is still reasonably fine (it never was elite). That BABIP will come up.
  15. Not sure. Going just by the Statcast info, he’s seeing slightly fewer fastballs, but not by a large margin. Don’t know about location, sequencing, etc.
  16. Yeah, his xwOBA is currently at .360, his actual wOBA is .319, so he’s -.041 (his SLG% is -.078 compared to his expected SLG%). And it’s not only that, but in each of his ‘18-‘19 seasons, his actual wOBA was far higher than his xwOBA (+.027 and +.045). He’s hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, as consistently as he ever has. The results just aren’t there. Between the large negative gap between is xSLG% and actual SLG% and an exceptionally low BABIP of .228, I’d still expect the results to come. I think I’ve read that the expected stats may be in need of some adjustment with the weird balls this season, so maybe that’s part of it, I don’t really know. I also remember writing in early 2018 that I expected Bregman to be a good player, occasional All-Star type, but not an MVP type of guy. Then 2018-2019 happened and I felt like a dumbass. I’m not saying I’m not a dumbass (many people could make a compelling case that I absolutely am), but I expect that those two seasons to probably be his best over his career. And that’s fine, those were 8-win seasons; I just think (a) 8-win seasons are only consistently posted by surefire HOFers, and (b) he’s probably more of a 4-5 win player. Which is great, and something we all would like to see in 2022.
  17. I guess it’s not that rare if 1/6 of the league has done it in the last calendar year.
  18. Yordan and Tucker (and Pena) probably wouldn’t get it too bad. Then again, there are a bunch of goddamned imbeciles.
  19. And now he is hurt and left the game I’m getting concerned that Trout’s career arc is going to resemble Griffey’s. Both appeared to be inner-circle HOFers throughout their 20s. Griffey couldn’t stay healthy after his age-30 season and never again really resembled the guy he was in his 20s. Trout played in 36 games last year, and if this groin injury persists… I do think Trout is a better hitter than Griffey was, and his production when he’s been healthy the last few years hasn’t dropped off at all, despite the reduced playing time, so it probably won’t be a 1:1 comparison. But I’m hoping he has a few more healthy seasons.
  20. Maybe. But here is how his current numbers compare to his best year (2019, 2022): Hard Hit %: 38%; 37.6% AVG exit velo: 89.3; 89.1 Barrel %: 4.8%; 7% xSLG: .453; .450 You’re right, his launch angle is higher this year (19.6 in 2019, 20.4 this year), but by the overall statcast numbers, he doesn’t look that different. I know these don’t tell you everything, but it seems he is due for some regression.
  21. He hasn’t. He has a 116 wRC+ with a .225 BABIP (career BABIP is .287). His expected stats indicate he’s had some bad luck too, and are in line with his career figures. I’d expect his results to start improving soon.
  22. “Bought a LHN”? Is this guy suggesting that UT bought the Longhorn Network? Interesting interpretation of the arrangement between espn and UT.
  23. Didn’t see the game. Saw that we were 5/27 (.185) on balls in play. Gonna assume it was just one of those days.
×
×
  • Create New...