Hank Chinaski

With the Meyers injury and the likelihood that Marte probably signs a short-term deal, it makes a lot of sense.

This motherfucker keeps referring to this Texas team as “Goliath”…what the fuck is happening?

Wait what…I must have missed that, thought he was a FA after this season.

I wonder if Buxton would consider a 1-year prove-it contract…say at $15-20 mm or so? I can’t imagine too many teams are willing to give him a lot of years, but he’s still pretty young and if he actually can play 125 games he may get a multiyear deal next offseason.

Also we keep talking about the Rays like that’s a bad thing - that club has won at least 90 games in 8 of the last 13 full seasons, and went 40-20 in 2020, so let’s call it 9 in the last 14 seasons. Of all the clubs I don’t want the Astros to resemble, TB is pretty far down the list. They have created a successful, sustainable formula. The Giants just won 107 games with a similar formula that values depth. Though I get the point, and I don’t think that the Astros’ payroll will get TB small.

Red-hot Springer is beyond awesome. But he is just as likely to be ice cold in any given 6-game stretch. That’s why you build a roster based on full-season production.

Yeah, of course we’d rather have Springer in those situations. But (a) Meyers wasn’t available in the WS and (b) the team still made it that far. Short series are a crapshoot; they construct rosters to get to the postseason. Agree that if we start seeing the payroll drop while letting guys walk, well, that won’t be good. But people have been fretting about this ever since Crane took over and they started shedding payroll. To me, they’ve always appeared to have a plan and it’s been pretty damn effective to this point.

I mean, the Astros led MLB in team wRC+. They were the best hitting team in baseball. And through one year…don’t we have to say that Click made the right call in CF with regard to Springer’s free agency? Straw had a more valuable season than Springer, and he was traded because (presumably) Click sees more upside with Meyers/McCormick, who were also productive (+3 WAR between them). I’m not ready to panic about the roster management at this point. Placing a lot of emphasis on player value/cost ratio makes a lot of sense provided that the saved money is used elsewhere. They’ve been right at the soft cap for a few years now; they’re never going to blow past it like the 2021 Dodgers did (even the 2022 Dodgers won’t do that), but they’ve shown that they’ll hover around there. I love Springer, love the guy. But he’s on the wrong side of 30, and his injury history was baked into the calculus. They projected that they’d get above-average production in CF at a fraction of the cost, and they did, in year 1. The cost savings *should* then be applied elsewhere - that’s the key.

Oh I had my doubts about Herman. My only point is that he had a pretty remarkable run for a spell, which coincided with Strong’s team falling apart. He was the obvious candidate at that time, and like you said, everyone was ready to excuse his issues.

Yeah. At the dawn of 2015, Herman’s offense at Ohio St kicked Saban’s ass with a third-string QB and then won it all. In his first year at UH, they finished a 13-1 season by beating Florida State handily, 2 years removed from their own national title. Then they open the next season by beating OU and that was that - he was the one. They stumbled a bit but then beat Lamar Jackson and Louisville in a nationally televised game. That was a pretty remarkable 2015-2016 stretch for the guy and made it easy to excuse the losses (I think WarD missed at least one of those games, etc).

…and I know absolutely nothing about the guy.

My guess is Detroit (who wasn’t as bad as you’d think this past season). The Hinch connection, young roster, Miggy coming off the books soon, etc. But who knows.

Right. We hear so much about “unrealistic expectations” and blah blah blah. To me, any average P5 coach should be able to go 8-5 at Texas, based on the resources, conference, etc. That’s exactly what Herman did. Strong was worse than that. Mack averaged 10-3 over 16 seasons, so he was +2 wins better than that. Mackovic hit just about that average, but had that 97 season where the wheels came completely off. Admittedly, I have become a pretty casual fan at this point - I can’t say I make a point to watch the games much anymore, though I tune in at times. So, not sure where Sark will net out - I guess I expect him to settle in around 8-5, same as Herman. I’ve seen enough bad passes and dropped balls and missed tackles this year to think that roster upgrades will get him there. But I’ve also seen the same second halves that you have, so I doubt he’ll be a plus coach. He seems like he may be a more likable Herman. I think year 2 is when you really know what he is as a coach. He’s shown nothing in year 1 to make me think he’ll be anything more than an average HC at Texas.

Yup, and this is why the Correa offer is what it is. The club is going to have to pay Alvarez and Tucker eventually. Teams value payroll flexibility and obligating $30mm annually for Correa’s age-33 season and beyond limits them. It sucks because he’ll probably be really good for the next 5 years or so, but to get those seasons you have to buy the ones where he’s less likely to be very good. Some team - probably one with less future payroll obligation, like the Tigers - will.

Agreed. That quad was never quite right. I’m not sure his training regimen was particularly sound, based on what I’ve heard. I believe he’s taken steps to address that.

I think I’d pass on any of those if I’m the Astros. 5/200 would be the closest, but I don’t think he’s signing that short of a contract. No idea if the rumors about his back are true, but we do know he has had back problems in his mid-20s, which is concerning.

Yeah, voters are generally more analytically savvy now than they used to be in how they evaluate a player’s career. Guys have historically been rewarded for hanging on too long and compiling more hits and HRs without being particularly good players anymore. Posey’s counting stats may be light by traditional standards, but his rates are great and his defense can be quantified better than in the past.

Yeah he’s obviously not signing a 5-year deal. CC has no interest in becoming a FA at age 32. This offer manors sense from the club’s perspective but not Correa’s. I’m sure he’s looking for a 10-year deal or something close to it.

The narrative exists partially because Texas makes the most money, has the most money, etc., and its athletic dept is driven by revenue first and foremost. But it also exists because of a bunch of total bullshit propagated by bitch-asses like Nebraska and AM whose real problem was that Mack Brown ruined them, not some kind of underhanded business dealings from Texas. Everyone on here understands that the UT athletic dept exists to make money and operates like any other corporate entity. We have no illusions about that. But the narrative is that ours is the only one that does. And when schools like Neb and AM bolt, they are praised for “getting out from under the tyrannical reign of Texas” or some such bullshit. None of it makes sense or is remotely close to reality.

Agreed, it’s the same reasoning that led the club to sit tight with Straw as the CF last season - which proved to be the right move compared to signing one of the guys that was available. If the club projects Meyers to be a 2-win guy at the league minimum, they’re sure as hell going to stick with that over a 3-win guy at $15mm. It’s better value. I’d like to see a bit more pitching depth/upgrade. I wouldn’t expect any major splash signings though.

Sure. But you can understand that Texas takes the about 99% of the blame for the fate of the B12 and people nationally eat it up because “fuck Texas” I guess. It gets old. But agreed, Nebraska and AM leaving set this all in motion a decade ago.

I still think that Nebraska and A&M leaving is what led to this. They can cry all they want about how it was Texas’s “toxic” presence that drive them away, but that’s utter bullshit. Those schools voted alongside Texas every step of the way in the B12 (at least as it pertained to revenue allocation) and they both left not because Texas was undermining them in any way, but rather because their programs (largely because of Texas) had lost their way and needed a rebrand. Oh, and they also left for more money. I know you’re not saying this, but the popular (lazy) narrative is that Texas keeps destroying conferences even though other high profile schools (Arky in the SWC, though that conference was simply not going to keep pace with the natural evolution of the sport; Neb and AM in the B12) are arguably more responsible. Anyway, rant over. I imagine the cyclones win tonight because Texas isn’t very good. Hope you guys attending the game have a good time.