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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. He is, and the exact same thing happened to him last year - was hitting the shit out of the ball for the first 30 games or whatever and had nothing to show for it. Obviously, it corrected for him over time, as I’m sure it will this year. But it would be nice if this improbable stretch of bad luck didn’t stricken him to begin every single season.
  2. There are probably several things Dusty does well as a manager. Lineup construction is not one of them. That said, it’s not his fault that nobody is hitting and the rotation behind JV appears to be the average bunch of back-of-the-rotation starters we all once thought they were.
  3. Yes. Here are the differences between wOBA and expected wOBA so far (based on contact quality): Tucker: -.228 (second-largest negative difference in MLB) Maldonado: -.162 Yordan: -.092 Brantley: -.088 Yuli: -.037 Altuve: -.027 Pena: -.022 Siri: -.021 Bregman: +.022 So basically the entire lineup outside of Bregman has results that fall short of what should be expected based on how hard/frequently they’re hitting the ball. Tucker to an extreme degree - he “should” have elite numbers right now (.417 wOBA, about the same as Vlad Guerrero Jr had last year), but instead his production has been replacement level. (Interestingly, Tucker went through this for about the first 6 weeks of last season too.) As a team, they have a .221 BABIP, 29th in MLB. So yeah, they’ve been almost freakishly unlucky offensively.
  4. You and me both.
  5. This team feels a lot like the 2006 Astros, which began probably the least interesting or entertaining era of Astros baseball in my lifetime (2006-2011). Both coming off WS loss. Alvarez is Berkman, Verlander is Clemens, Bregman is Ensberg, old Altuve is old Biggio, Framber is old Pettite, Pressley is bad Lidge, Machete/Ausmus, Yuli is kinda like Mike Lamb, Chas is Jason Lane, etc. This team has Tucker and Pena, that team had Oswalt - I think that’s the difference. Neither seems to have any real difference-makers on the farm (maybe Leon is comparable to Hunter Pence in a couple of years). And whatever that bullshit uniform they wore today was, it was the worst they’ve looked aesthetically since those goddamned imbeciles decided to be red and black with pinstripes (as they were in 06). That team went 82-80; I expect this one to go 83-79 (+/- 3 games).
  6. Yordan’s percentile ranks are looking decent…
  7. Plus Tucker and Altuve haven’t started hitting yet, Yordan has missed half the games, Meyers (who may be the best CF the org has) hasn’t played yet, etc.
  8. I mean, it’s only 8 games. I think I’ve read that K% and BB% start to level out at about 100 PAs (Leon has 39). We’ll see where he is in a couple more weeks, but he’s been over 30% K rate in AA and AAA. But he’s only been in MiLB for a year, and he’s got the tools to be a contributor even if he just trims the Ks a little bit. I just don’t expect him to be an option this season.
  9. Leon is hitting .226/.385/.387 in AAA and is striking out in 36% of his PAs. He’s not ready.
  10. Tucker should bat first.
  11. team batting for the season: .211/.281/.371, good for a 89 wRC+ The good news is that they aren’t striking out any more than the last several seasons (18%). And the .224 BABIP is second-lowest in MLB. So, probably some bad luck. Per Statcast, their expected AVG/SLG is .254/.480.
  12. Christ. Twice they’ve had 2 on/0 out today and haven’t scored. That’s the kind of day today is. Also, Altuve has always done dumb shit on the bases. Love him, but it’s true.
  13. Steven Souza weighs in too… https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/amp/Steven-Souza-Astros-cheating-sign-stealing-Dodgers-17074845.php
  14. I hear you, but again - you can give guys a rest, but it’s damn-near professional malpractice to sit 2 of your best players in the same game when another is already out on paternity leave. It’s just dumb. Give one a day off today and another off Tuesday if it’s really that essential to rest them. I know the days of guys like Bagwell and Biggio playing every single game are long gone, but they can be more strategic than this. And for the love of god, when Altuve, Brantley and Yuli are out - don’t hit Tucker 6th in the fucking order!
  15. It’ll drive me batshit all season long. But yeah, in the first series of the season, Dusty feels compelled to ensure that everyone gets a day off. Goodrum, who is probably the worst hitter on the team, has started half the team’s games. If Yuli is out, maybe, I don’t know, play Diaz at first and Altuve at second? I honestly don’t get how an analytically-inclined franchise allows Dusty to do this shit. Their probability of winning today was intentionally and significantly reduced by the manager and the lineup he decided to roll out. Like they’re punting this game for no reason other than to give guys a day off - 3 days into the goddamn season! It’s fucking maddening. Here’s a good rule of thumb: Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Brantley, Yuli, Bregman - don’t sit any of 2 those guys on the same day if you don’t have to. They can all have days off, just don’t do it at the same time. It’s not difficult.
  16. This lineup is fucking stupid. Can anyone explain the logic of Tucker batting behind Siri, Pena and Diaz in the order? (Hint: you can’t because it’s fucking asinine.) Also, is it necessary to rest Altuve and Brantley when Yuli is already out? Why they just decide to regularly play the B team is fucking beyond me.
  17. Turning down that offer is a bold move for a 30-year old with his injury history.
  18. ESPN - out of 38 baseball staff, exactly 1 picked the Astros to win the AL pennant. Fangraphs - two out of 23 picked the Astros to win the AL. So 3/61 combined. External expectations are apparently lower than they’ve been in a while (2015?). That will give this season an interesting/different feel. Damn I’m glad this is starting up.
  19. That’s fine, the point is that every single player that tests positive feels the need to state that it was a big mixup and that he had the noblest of intentions (trying to start a family) when unwittingly consuming banned substances.
  20. The reasons these guys give for using banned substances never fails to amuse. Maybe some of them have told the truth, but it’s really tough to believe them thanks to all the utter bullshit that has been spewed over the last 15 years or whatever.
  21. I like Tucker 2nd and Brantley 6th.
  22. Well, he’s 34 and hasn’t been even an average offensive player in any of the last 3 seasons. He’s projected to be about as productive offensively as Chas and figures to be worse defensively. I always liked Upton but he has faded quickly the last few seasons.
  23. He’s very athletic and has the loud tools but struck out in 1/3 of his PAs in AA and AAA and his MLB cup of coffee. He turns 27 this season, so this is probably about who he’s going to be. I’ve also heard he’s a bit of a knucklehead (late to meetings, etc.). Not a bad bench guy because he’s got the power and speed, but he’ll have a really hard time playing every day with that K% (unless he starts walking a lot more, which is pretty doubtful).
  24. I mean, I still think he’ll be a good player again, and I know he’s had injuries, but his drop off since the MVP year has been bizarre. Maybe it’s all injury related, I don’t know.
  25. My guess is that Brinson is getting a look at potentially making the club as a 4th/5th OF, at least until Meyers is back.
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