I think it has more to do with being in Jerry World and seeing them live in their best effort of the year vs pure conference affiliation. 3 star Matt Campbell try hards have a hard ceiling, but they did beat some pretty good OU and UT squads over the years, and hung reasonably well against a Texas team of similar talent level to this one a year ago. Texas (and OU for that matter) never whipped a Matt Campbell try hard team as soundly ASU just did.
I'm in no way predicting that ASU even makes this a game, really. I just don't agree that they're the worst team in the playoff, and there are some concrete examples to back up that opinion - not just pure bias (and obviously I'm biased). Clemson absolutely has more on-paper talent than ASU, but outside of truly elite talent (which Clemson doesn't have) you regularly see better coached teams win against more talented ones. I can't see ASU dropping a home game to Louisville like Clemson did. ASU has one bad loss, and it was a road game without their QB.