Bozo_Casanova

Trump's weather machine. It works though. He's done the same thing the last two campaigns and closed very strong each time because it gives the press the impression of momentum.

that's good move. And if the Harris campaign hasn't been there, it's political malpractice.

I guess. I mean, she's an exceptional state pollster and I wish every state had one that good, but to extent that it's directionally predictive of the rest of the midwest is limited to the parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, illinois and michigan that are demographically and economically similar to Iowa. In other words, if Trump is up by 5 or less, that's a good sign for Harris in Wisconsid and Michigan, but if it's more than that I'm not going to get the sweats. Biden lost by 8.2 and she had him down 7.

go on

I'm not going to defend John McLaughlin (well, maybe if it came to a head to head between him and Mark Penn), but he was right about 2016 and deep inside the campaign so I figure he's good for a vibe check.

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning." Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things.

Young Americans with good prospects are very much considering their options around both the political climate and the climate climate, and it's influencing the way the approach dating. Being a single person with multiple passports/citizenships is as good in eligibility terms as being rich or a high income/status professional right now. Not joking.

Doesn't matter, had sex

The years have not been kind to Robert Smith. In contrast, I went to the Duran Duran show at ACL in 2021 expecting them to be sad and tired, but they were great and Simon LeBon looked his age but looked and sounded great. Huge main character energy, like Rod Stewart.

How much of the non voters is 30-44? ans how much of that is female?

What's with the gloomy vibes, were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? There's an election to win Tuesday. In June there was like a 99% chance of a GOP sweep and a popular mandate for Donald Trump. As of now, Democrats might take the house, losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map, and the White House is a jump ball. Please, sack the fuck up.

The census bureau/pew definition of Gen X (beginning at 1965) is bullshit on infinite levels. Don’t even get me started. the best definition is Strauss and Howe: 61-81.

One of the best-sourced reporters:

Trump is a boomer. Biden is silent Gen. Kamala and Walz are Gen X by the most sensible definitions.

It’s not really that way for me. I was taking a Trump landslide + congressional sweep for granted in May/June and hedging accordingly, so I guess I had already done my grieving. This period of hopefulness was unexpected. We’re playing with house money. I think the good guys win, but if we don’t I already know what I’m doing next.

Look, they have a theory of how to win and they are probably weighting things accordingly. I am quite sure they think they are going to win, and they could be right. But I don’t think so, and I’m pretty sure they also aren’t relying on the RCP average for anything.

It's right there in the name, New Mexico, and we're doing it bigger and better and newer than anyone would have believed. They tell me it's a record level for new. So we're doing the New Mexico.

I still say Kamala should have gone on Rogan and she would have killed it just any reasonable person does when they go on. If she's elected she still should. Your on the right side of history. I'm not so bullish on your domestic situation though. Speaking as a person steeped in Hinduism and deeply respectful of the Hindu spiritual tradition, fuck this guy.

one of the best in 2020, one of the worst in 2022. It's a Republican aligned pollster who weight based on their theory of the election. Which is fine, unless the theory is wrong.

there is a not small GOP push to inject national partisan politics into local planning and zoning issues, and we've seen some of that with Trump in 2020 and 2024 talking about protecting your suburbs and "protecting neighborhoods" from multifamily housing. A component of that is a legislative effort to enlist the power of the state as an enforment mechanism of deed restrictions. When you drive around Hyde Park and Allendale and other places where you see "protect our deed restrictions," those people aren't red pilled secret Republicans or anything, but that's the impulse the GOP is working with at the national and state level.

to be clear, I was saying two things: 1) I like the Daylight Savings Time system, because it means summer mornings gets hotter later in Texas, when days are longest and I like being outside in the morning in general. However; 2) If the system is eliminated nationally, I hope that we go back to permanent standard time, because when days are shorter in the winter that means an earlier sunrise.

Off topic, but I like DST. If they get rid of it, my hope is that we fall back permanently rather than stop when we are sprung forward. Morning sunshine=high T. Later sunrises are beta shit. Still lot of weird relics in the system. My friend Lisa bought a house in '98. On her deed was entered "Lisa _______ , barren woman"

That's fucking awesome. We've really come so far. When the Bush campaign started running spanish language ads the mere fact they were doing it was considered groundbreaking. I worked at 301 Congress from 1997-2002, and the Bush campaign HQ was on the 3rd floor. There's a courtyard on the 4th St side where people would take smoke breaks, and I would occasionally talk to a guy from the campaign. I once asked him if the spanish commercials were different from the English commercials. He said "they're essentially the same, except the spanish one has a clown in it." I tend to agree. My opinion is that the enthusiasm is actually higher than this poll indicates since some of the most enthusiastic voters for Harris (female college graduates under 30) are less likely to get sampled by Gallup.

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going- Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this.