Bozo_Casanova

For them? Debateable. It's tough to see how Texas flipping blue would have much benefit for the daily lives of the non-voting cohort in El Paso or the cities in general. Agree about who's to blame for that perception, however.

Counter-subconscious espionage, if you will

Maybe not, you might not be watching the video without the selective edit. That said, I don’t honestly care. It’s not great politics, but it’s also not going to cost her anything.

Fewer

“The same thing we do every night, Pinky- try to take over the world.”

Biden was talking about Tony Hinchcliffe. Cool your jets.

I like the way this team is put together. Luka looks like he’s in pretty good shape by Luka standards. He just had an off night. 12 months ago Mavs lose this game by 10+

I think he’s he’s saying that their definition of “likely voter” includes the high turnout by tylically low propensity, low education voters who came out for him in 2016 and 2020, and the fact that in those same elections the higher propensity and education voters are thought to have supported Biden and Clinton.

Good commentary that would explain some things

One Week out, RNC Chair Michael Watley is "cautiously optimistic." And now take a deep breath and prepare your mind to be blown

It worked for Ken Griffey Jr.

The original spanish version actually got very popular in Miami four years ago. I hate to admit it, but it slaps. That was nine days ago.

I'd ignore that - registration is more of a lagging than leading indicator of anything.

nothing about this is bad news, it's an artifact of demography.

Username checks out. A couple of things - first, the Puerto Rican paper is really more of an indicator of sentiment then a driver of behavior. Second, and far more importantly however, 2/3 of all "Puerto Ricans" actually reside in the mainland US, including about 6% of the population in Florida and nearly 4% of the population of Pennsylvania.

how do you feel about burrata?

So like I been saying 1) It is possible but unlikely that the pollsters are materially underestimating Trump again 2)It is possible but somewhat less likely that the pollsters are bang on the actual results 3) It is possible that the pollsters are underestimating harris and somewhat more likely than 1 or 2.

Yeah, I think that's all true, although I don't think you can compare campaign driven early voting in 2024 to the exogenous weirdness of 2020. The GOP is really leaning into early voting and mail-in voting this time, which is smart, but those numbers come from somewhere. That said, whether Brown wins or loses, he's going to outperform Harris, both in % and absolute terms. And Moreno will not outperform Trump. This is true in general, but I'm not sure it's true this time, for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a uniquely polarizing personality, and I don't think I need to explain that one. There are people who vote for Trump and Democrats everywhere else, and there will be some number of Republicans who don't vote for Trump this time, and vote Harris for President and Moreno for Senate. Second, though - his entire strategy to boost his share is to pull in a disproportional number of low propensity, low information voters. He will get some number ranging from a few to a lot, and most of them will vote Trump and walk out.

They need to run the touchdown play