Bozo_Casanova

A what? You mean like someone named Caedmon Weak-foot, who even still holds to Woden and Tiw at home while only nominally observing the Christian rite of the hated Norman invaders?

This cold as fuck

Res ipsa loquitur

I’ll take it

He’s presenting

Wife’s out of town so steak dinner for one. 12oz NY Strip Med Rare, pan fried gnocchi, salad, primitivo and sports.

You misspelled @HellesBier

Do you even lift, bro? There has never been a less western president than president Trump. The Latin root word of virtue is “vir, meaning man, or hero. There has never been a weaker, more pliant and hysterical (also shares a root with “uterus”) leader of a western power. Women are voting for Harris not because she is a woman but because he is not a real man. Weak men can’t tell the difference. Women are hard-wired to know. Real talk, doughboy.

Counterpoint:

The one where he interviews Trump? here is the transcript. Would you point out the relevant quote please?

It doesn't look good on anybody. What's your source on the Rogan thing?

You are wrong do what now

Wisconsin

Are you asking for the bellwether or tipping point?

Yeah, how can actual humans working on the ground in the places they live overcome overseas predictive markets and a national media vibeshift?

I had to talk someone down who is very freaked out based on The Bullshit* and it appears to have readjusted their perspective so I'm sharing here: Lets imagine you are watching a basketball game, and you are rooting for Team A. Early the in the game, Team B jumped out to a 5 point lead, settled in, and the lead drifted from 3-5 points, but was basically stable until the the beginning of the 4th quarter when they pull away and stretch the lead out to as much as 10. Your PG is playing hard but playing hurt. With 2 minutes left, Team B is up 7 and cruising to an easy win, when the backup comes in, and hits a three. Team B misses a 3, the sub grabs a long rebound, slings it out ahead for an easy dunk, then steals the inbound pass and drills another three! You're up 1 with 1 minute left! What a comeback! And then the two teams trade missed shots. 10 seconds are left when Team B gets a steal but there's a scramble and now it's a jump ball. Team A is Harris in this situation - had a huge late comeback and are now holding on to slight lead with fresh legs. Team B is Trump in this situation - blew a huge lead but hung in there, and has a shot at winning but they have to do more than Team A in order to win. Should Team A be worried? What about that scenario says that Team B is the favorite? *What's "priced in," media narratives, predictive markets, polling noise, etc. HOT TAKE ALERT

Couple things: 1) The Harris rally was epic. It seems like it broke through the noise for her in a way that nothing else really has this month. 2) Trump is flailing and his team is flailing. He could win, obviously, but they are running on fumes and relying on whatever fuckery they have cooked up to come down with the ball. It is evident to me that they thought Harris would revert the signal by now. She hasn’t, and the mid-oct Trump bounce has peaked. 3) Harris should absolutely do Rogan, and I still hope she does. There is literally no downside and in an election like this she loses when dances to their tune (CNN/60 Mins) and wins when she’s making her own weather (Fox, CHD, Houston Rally).

Hey it’s another one of these bitter ex Clintonites

You would think that Matt Mackowiak, email publisher and Chairman of the Travis County GOP, would have more to do this close to Election Day than break an “EXCLUSIVE” about somebody else’s podcast, but since he didn’t even bother to get candidates on the ballot for the vast majority of county races I guess he’s not super busy.

Nope, but neither does your friend. He might be right and I understand why he thinks that. But under the circumstances that seems like the least likely scenario of the three. Mumford? I’m voting for Trump.

Weird, where are all the old people on scooters and oxygen tanks?

I wonder if Meg is going to be there. Here's her new video because she's fine as hell.

battleground state tracking polls have been off by 3-4 points, and they tend to herd in the same direction. In 2008 and 2012, they underestimated Obama. In 2016 and 2020, they underestimated Trump. In 2022, they underestimated Democratic house and Senate candidates. The current polls (the good ones) are working very hard not to underestimate Trump this time. So: these are the possibilities: 1) The polls are right and it's a jump ball, coming down to legal manuevers in close states, like 2000. 2) They underestimate Trump, because polling is just very hard. He wins 300+ EVs and it's over early, like 2016. 3) They underestimate Harris, because polling is just very hard. She wins 300+ EVs and it's over early, like 2012

Which is interesting, because in general, more Democrats vote R in presidential elections. But that was only slightly true in 2016, Biden got more R voters than Trumo got Democrats 2020, and with any luck that will hold in this election as well. According to the supreme court he would be immune from prosecution if he did. @TwiceHorn is that correct? Serious question.