Bozo_Casanova

Oh, and this is important- from the great Jane Coaston

There are other explanations. We certainly hope that there is a “hidden Dobbs vote,” and there is reason to believe that, but we don’t know it. Trump support could also be undercounted by 3, which has also been true in the past. Also - polling has been off by an average of 2-3pts over the last five presidential elections. If Harris gets a normal miss in her favor in the swing states (more or less consistent with post Dobbs results), she wins 312-350 EVs, and puts another 20-30 If Trump gets a normal miss in his favor (which has been historically the case) he gets around 300. And of course if the polls are exactly correct right now she would win 279 EVs, but then it’s a jump ball and there are certification fights. No matter what happens on Election Day, it’s going to be pretty grim between 11/5 and mid February. But the important thing for Democrats right now is to stop fretting about why Trump support isn’t collapsing and focus on GOTV. He’s more likely to be behind than ahead right now and I’d rather be in our shoes than theirs.

Can someone explain the firewall? I keep hearing this and I don’t understand it

They can both be true, because of who the undecideds are and where they live, but there aren’t many. The opinion cake is baked, and this election really comes down to 1) how much of an electoral advantage the Republicans still have as more states have urbanized and 2) GOTV

Yes. It’s what a very good bourbon was understood to be 20-25 years ago before people got gulled into thinking that single barrels were necessarily good and 12+ was the sweet spot. It’s strong, satisfying, not to sweet and very easy. Tobacco, light honey, cinnamon, cream. it’s worth $50, and twice as good as most bourbons double the price, which isn’t saying much.

Great, go get him and he can explain himself. While you’re at it you can explain why you, a progressive, were caping for Citizens United a few years back. Wasn’t it for “more freedom,” or something? Electoral politics are about who, not what, and if you don’t win you ain’t shit.

You should ask to talk to the manager, but it seems to me you are advocating the exact coalition strategy pursued by Texas Democrats from 1998-2016, Progressives are cordially invited to shut the fuck up, liberals are trying to save the world from fascism again.

More politics of impotence - How someone looks to other men is very important to me

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979.

This is sometimes called “the politics of impotence.” the key points are: - the government can’t be fixed - we can’t make the world better - People I don’t know are scary - the success of other people is a threat to my success - I’m afraid of cities - I’m a real man See also, Vance, JD

I should have put some context around this- registrations are a lagging indicator. As coalitions change and realign people who don’t vote in primaries change their vote before they re-register their party affiliation. That seems obvious enough, but whether PA has continued to shift right relative to registration since 2020 isn’t knowable until 11/5. My point is that the registration numbers in PA, Florida and other places reflect previous behaviors that are already baked in, not future behaviors.

His thesis isn’t bad and it’s consistent with recent history. Pennsylvania generally votes to the right of its registrations, and the polls have been off in the last few elections by about 2-3 points- the last two underestimating Trump support. Donald Trump had a huge lead coming into August. Harris has made quite a comeback and he hasn’t been able to retake a clear lead. That’s very good for her. If the polls are underestimating Harris, by 3 points, she blows him out. That’s not at all unlikely. But people on this board need to come to grips with the fact that we really don’t know what’s happening. Lots of people who had not previously voted for Trump had grudgingly come around on him and it’s hard to unring that bell. Red areas of the rust belt have only gotten redder, the polls can only catch what swims through the net and Donald Trump may be winning this comfortably.

Welp, that’s enough internet for today

Avengers! Assemble.

Yeah but that’s a vicious cycle. Have you tried backing it off a little at a time? Also- have you ever been assessed for ADD/ADHD? Once I finally bent to many years of pleading from family, friends and colleagues and got on ADHD medication* that helped a lot. Turns out microdosing time release methamphetamines alleviates the need for caffeine to function. WHO KNEW?! *I am not suggesting anyone lean into an ADHD diagnosis for drugs. I was ADHD my whole life and chose not to treat it because it can be a creative asset if you have good coping strategies.

Not that it matters, but she’s crushing this 60mins interview

American deemphasizing Austin is part of the Vasu Raja era unwinding, and there’s mounting concern that the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater, because as much as their Austin “strategy” never seemed to make sense as executed… There is lots of speculation that Delta is big footing AUS as American pulls flights with designs on making the whole new Austin terminal their Texas/Midwest hub, and the gateway to Latin America/Carribean destinations.

The only thing more tedious than their Hyperspecific Intersectional Voices in Liberal Arts/Humanities/Fine Arts stories are the Morons in The Cafe at 10AM on a Weekday stories.

I feel the same, or did, but that helped motivate me to find a path to sleeping much better. Hope you find one too. my recipe, btw: no booze Sun-Thurs no caffeine after 2pm Up before 7 no matter what Make a point to be outside when the sun comes up, baring as much skin as possible No food or anything requiring digestion after 8pm no Internet after 830 no screens of any kind after 10 Lights out at 1030 white noise/waves sleep mask ZMA + L-Theanine at bedtime If I do all that on any given day it’s 7+ hours of quality sleep. Each one I don’t do is worth about 15 mins off the top, except booze, which can cost me as little as 30 mins and as much as 3-4 hours of sleep by itself depending on how much and when. Also a good workout improves sleep quality and mood by a lot but doesn’t really help me sleep more.

“Well the scene shifts to heaven. Feller’s graveyard dead.”

This is an aside, but I’d entertain a prop bet that Trump will get majority of Hispanic males under 35.

That’s remarkably accurate

You got off pretty easy. The OG Covid strain was a bad motherfucker.

Shingles vax two weeks ago. Ran a low grade fever and felt shitty for about 36 hours, with “moderate risk” showing on my Oura app for 3 days more after that. Not super fun but I’d take it over shingles for sure. Flu and Covid yesterday. My back is a little sore and I’m a little warm, other than that all good.