Bozo_Casanova

Drifting into Ted Cruz territory

Rogan is objectively good at interviewing people and Theo Von has the rare ability to pull out the human core of a person if they are willing to go where the conversation takes them. Probably the realest conversation with Donald Trump I’ve ever heard.

She should do both herself, but if they had to split it she should do Rogan and he would do Theo Von.

She needs to do Rogan or Theo Von. Both are good interviewers, she would do well in both forums.

I don't think I was clear - I meant the period on the graph when the approval of the president among whites without a college degree relative to the average rose through presidents of both parties from 1992-2020. That said, it's notable that since the end of Vietnam, the only two presidential election winners broadly perceived as part of the washington establishment (Bush I and Biden) only lasted one term. Bush lost, and Biden would have.

I wasn’t sure where else to put this

Well think about the third reconciliation. Many shubs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in that depths of the Sloar that day, I can tell you.

Your opinion is wrong and you should feel bad. Clinton was a marginal candidate and mostly unknown outside of the state of Arkansas except by politics junkies in the spring of 1992. His candidacy was only possible because when Bush looked unbeatable going into the early fall of 1991, all the top contenders on the Democratic side declined to run including the top two “next generation” candidates. Clinton ran as an insurgent outsider change candidate appealing to working class people on the losing end of the Reagan revolution. And I can’t even imagine how to argue that Obama was anything other than THE change candidate and a deep outsider in the early spring of 2008. I mean, that’s a wild take. His blackness was symbolically important, obviously but his candidacy represented rejection of both the Bush doctrine of foreign policy AND the Clintonomic economic doctrine of globalization and financial neoliberalism.

Eh, not sure I agree with your police work there. The point of inflection is 1992, and since then every successful candidate has been a newcomer or outsider perceived as disruptive Obama was broadly perceived in the same terms as Trump by the people who have been damaged the most by the consolidation of productivity gains- disruptive to the establishment order. And you can go back further than that. Think about it this way: these are the presidents elected since WWII: - sitting president/VP/Senator - Supreme Allied Commander - Sitting Senator - Sitting President/VP/Senate Maj Leader - Former VP Vietnam ends - Outsider Governor - Radical Governor - sitting VP CIA Director, VP, congressman, ambassador, son of powerful senator (return to establishment via next man up) 1992 - Southern Governor - Southern Governor - First term senator - Notorious Celebrity The relevant historical Trend here is that the white working class has been in political and cultural rebellion since the end of Vietnam and starting with Bill Clinton through Obama to Trump you see the recipe being refined to its essentials.

My Dad and Godfather got thrown in the Comal county jail in 1970. He would always tell me: “It might seem fun at the time, but don’t ever beat up a cop in Comal County.”

Fun fact: in 2016 Democrats had a favorable map, a presidential candidate who would have exceptional coattails in South and Central Texas and possibly could have pulled even in the house. They were nevertheless unable to file candidates and contest enough Republican seats for control or pulling even in the Texas House to be a mathematical possibility. In 2020 they did, and then talked up a bunch of internal polling that supopsedly showed that they were on pace to take both the house (by a lot) and Senate (by one seat). They ended up not taking a single seat and gaining one seat in the senate (they expected 4-5). I fully expect that in 2024 Democrats in Texas will once again hope in one hand while shitting in the other.

That will teach her to commit treason without being rich or a lawyer

So like I said… if the polling is absolutely correct, as it stands right now, it’s a nail biter. If it’s off by 2+ points in either direction, it’s not.

I think this generation of blue collar workers are weird. Whether or not they are in a union, they are mad about not being able to reach the American dream the middle class could access when the unions were at their peak, but many of them take all the basic things the labor movement got them for granted, which are now at risk. You will never be physically intimate with Sydney Sweeney. It is very possible that the election will be called by midnight East coast time on Election Day. 1) the direction of polling error has tended to be consistent and 2) pollsters adjust to error based on previous results. A 2% miss in favor of Harris is a Harris Landslide. A 2% miss the other way is a comfortably clear Trump electoral win. Both are very possible. people also forget that 2024 isn’t 2020. The nature of turnout will be much more conventionally weighted to in-person voting.

Brent Venables is the Bo Pellini of Gary Gibbs

#TeamElephant

Yes- and the insane irony is that the same poor targeting that caused the accelerating wealth inequality and asset price explosion of the last 20 years in the US is both 1) the thing that protected the us economy most from the kind of inflation they had elsewhere, and 2) also prevents the majority of the American public from benefiting from the very rare combination of quick recovery and restrained inflation.

Ironically it’s also the name of a desert drink for two at Guy Fieri’s American Grill in Times Square

Marburg’s at #1, but two more of the top ten are on the board right now.

Just you wait

Oof! See Vance gulp when she said deportation?

This debate is going to get real boring real fast. It’s a wash.

My guess: he correctly understands sharing an episode will make him look bad and he plans to get an episode to himself later.