Bozo_Casanova

Yes. TCDP is extraordinarily unprofessional but a danger to no one, especially statewide Republicans.

This thread delivers

This is a joke but you know this sick mofo has been up after midnight on a DIY forum in the dead of winter vividly describing how to use white bread in a frozen pipe to absorb melting ice so you can solder the break.

And then he didn’t do that, but that’s another issue.

I don’t think that’s true. Places don’t have beliefs. Humans have rights- endowed to them by their creator, and I have no interest in fleeing my family’s home of 180 years and three federal Republics to accommodate people who think otherwise.

The issue is not that Texas is not conducive to my beliefs. The issue is that Texas is contrary to human life because it gave the beliefs of others force of law.

That is correct. i am not a doctor, but - in the event of a partial molar pregnancy it is imperative that the fetus and all cells be removed as early as possible (due to cancer risk) and especially urgent if the fetus has already miscarried (cancer risk + sepsis and infection.) Under current law in Texas, most doctors cannot perform a D&C as long as the heart is still beating despite it being a totally non-viable pregnancy, and many still wont until such time as the situation presents a life threatening emergency. In our situation she miscarried before we knew. Up until 14 weeks it seemed to be a healthy, normal pregnancy. The baby died, they did the D&C immediately and we were heartbroken. That heartbreak was flavored with terror when we found out it was partially molar and that she would need weekly blood draws for a year to rule out choriocarcinoma before we could start trying again safely. but that was 2002. She got the treatment she needed immediately and we went on to have two daughters. Here in 2023, we would not have been able to get her immediate treatment, and the result could have been sickness, cancer, infertility, and even death.

Under current Texas law, my wife would have not only been at serious risk of sepsis and death when she miscarried but also at risk of both infertility and cancer, on top of our heartbreak at losing the baby. But losing you would be a tragedy and I don’t know if I could bear it.

Spagett!

No, 330 could absolutely happen. With only a 1% move in his direction he would get 292 or 306. (She would get 313)

Maybe. But here’s the thing- if I told you that there was a good reason to believe that Donald Trump is going to win 330 electoral votes in this election, you would believe it, because there IS a good reason to believe that. But for the same reason it’s equally possible that Kamala Harris is cruising and on pace to win in an electoral landslide.

And they are pissed. ROYALLY pissed.

Not so fast my friend. I want to be clear upfront I don’t think she’s getting close to that total if she wins*. theres a lot of talk a few pages back about the declining GOP EC advantage and how pollsters are dealing with systemic errors. 2016 and 2020 saw large systemic errors in favor of Clinton and Biden in the 2-4% range, but there’s no real reason to believe that those errors persist this time around, or for that matter that pollsters wouldn’t overcorrect in the other direction. In other words, the polls aren’t wrong, but they are just a snapshot of a group at a point in time. this is a tight election and there’s no getting around that fact, but I continue to believe that the “undecided voter” will move as a group at the end in a way that may be invisible to polling. I was playing around with some numbers on 270 to win this morning and the output was very interesting. If the polling averages are correct as of today, Harris wins with 292 EC votes, holding Nev, NC, Wi, MI, PA. If there’s a systematic 2% error in Trump’s favor he picks up all of the above and gets 312EVs With a 3% error in his favor across the board he also would win Oregon and Minnesota, or 330, and with a 3.5% error he would pick up VA, OR and Neb 2, putting his total at 343. On the other hand: if there is a 2% error in her favor, she wins picks up Maine 2, AZ, GA and maybe IA for 326. With 3% in her favor, she would also win Florida and Alaska, or 359 EVs, and with 3.5% she would win Texas and possibly Ohio, putting her at 399-416. *Inshallah!

@LCHorn This is good advice thank you. Esp going to the movies. I already do a lot of the other stuff. Worth mentioning I’ve been to two conferences in two weeks and I’m burnt out, toxic from too many drinks and heavy meals and haven’t been able to lift weights.

Got a time machine? Otherwise no, but thank you for asking, seriously. I just don’t like my birthday.

Tomorrow is my 51st birthday and I am really sad, mainly for dumb reasons.

Ridiculous

What a time to be alive

Shows what I know.

“Challenge accepted” - South Austin’s mom

You’ll get 25 and you’ll like it

Wait- are you saying you don’t think this election is close?

Again - I think we’ll see a 3% move in one or the other direction at the end of the move that may or may not be visible until Election Day and will represent the consolidated intent of truly undecided and/or unmotivated voters. I think they will move as a herd, and that we’ll know who wins the election by midnight on the East coast, because they will win >300 EVs