Bozo_Casanova

Dumps like a truck, truck, truck Thighs like what, what, what

You didn’t! I’m genuinely sympathetic to my friends in real estate, because they were printing money for a long time and this has been an adjustment. That sucks! I know it’s a big difference and that’s not fun, but the party is over. You may be right about needing more mobility, but if it comes down to choosing that or controlling inflation, my guess is the fed chooses to manage inflation down.

This would be an outlier

So true

As part of an effort to improve his favorability ratings, JD Vance goes on record affirming that post menopausal women DO have a purpose!

Too great for what, though? With 5-6 months of inventory it’s a mild buyer’s market in Austin after how many years of being a seller’s market? Again I’m genuinely sympathetic to people who aren’t able to print money like they have for the last several years but this like a pretty smooth correction to me.

JHC- has John Rich ever heard a Johnny Cash song?

I wasn’t kidding about the tias earlier. Win with the tias and it’s ballgame.

Boom goes the dynamite

The original videos were produced by a VERY litigious combination cult/social media management company* called 7M. Don’t be surprised if they sue, but more importantly the kids have turned against them- those were popular like 12-18 months ago but nobody cares now. It’s as dated for Gen Z as doing a “whazzup?” thing would be for Gen X, with an added taint of toxic brand association. * serious, there’s a documentary about it.

But that’s what we have been doing. Look, I realize this is maybe not orthodox thinking at this point, but I view the last 15 years as an aberration. I just don’t see what’s healthy about the long term use of monetary stimulus to prop up or inflate asset prices. Historically normal interest rates will do us all some good I think.

This is the real Fascist “stuff,” the old Soviet Union!

Yep- 2.9% is good enough for a symbolic move to loosen up real estate a little, but won’t get us to a second cut in 24. Word! Troph agree with your second point below, but personally I’d like to see rates normalize for an extended period and we’re in a normal range already. I don’t know what the Fed will do, but assiming inflation continues to decline slowly it would be much better to have 400-450bps to play with in the event of a recession down the road.

Maybe you didn’t have Showtime or masturbate in the mid 1980’s

I was talking with my wife’s cousin from Beaumont about this kind of thing. Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus or King David. He’s not a Godly man so much as he is God’s instrument.

It’s a mystery!

“The Groups” are when a popular or semi popular cause or community of interest coalesces into a group of student council and grifter types who claim to speak for the cause but really just speak for themselves. so, BLM the group as opposed to black life mattering, the NRA the group as opposed to shooters and hunters, here in Austin you have SOS which claims to speak for environmentalists but is mostly speaking for Bill Bunch and his landlord pals, etc.

It is known

I noticed this too, and fuck The Groups

I’ve been reading that too, and I don’t understand it in the same way I didn’t understand all the people who said 6 cuts in 2024. It seems like wishcasting. i mean I guess they could, but why would they?

Good post otherwise, but I entirely disagree with the bolded. This is Greg Davis thinking, politically. Howard Dean was able to orchestrate a turnaround in the mid 2000s as chair in part because of his insistence on a 50 state strategy, with Obama flipping several states (like Virginia) and establishing beachheads in others that paid dividends later, like Georgia, New Mexico and Nevada. And even if we aren’t talking about a 50 state strategy- Texas is too great of a strategic prize and should never be off the table. Florida probably shouldn’t either.

That poll is in line with the expectations in the aggregate, but it’s entirely possible for Harris to win in Texas, it’s just unlikely for the same reason statewide Dems don’t win: a lack of organizational campaign strength outside of the 6 most populous counties. Harris can win if all of the following things happen - cities turn out heavily for Harris - turnout is significantly lower in rural and exurban counties - rural and suburban Democrats turn out at a slightly higher rates than past years I’m not saying that WILL happen, but there are early reasons to think the conditions are right. The best evidence of field campaign infrastructure on the ground in rural areas and suburbs in Texas is yard and fence signs. It indicates that people active in the party are making personal contact with people outside of the party, and the level of activity is really determined by how well the down ballot candidates and the top of the ticket are connecting at the local level. In other words- yard signs don’t tell you who will win, but they do tell you who is working the hardest and most effectively, and that’s often a leading indicator, because it gives early and overwhelming winners of the yard sign primary validate their supporters, and demoralize opponents. This is particularly crucial in down ballot races. In a normal year, you see signs for GOP campaigns in rural and suburban areas right after primaries, and they are usually very visible by August. Energy is supplied by the presidential or governor’s race, and the local ticket drafts behind it and brings the volunteers. Driving around in Texas you should be seeing yard signs and 6x4 fence signs for everything, in other words - house races, county commissioners, dog catcher, etc. and you don’t, at least not yet. That tells me one thing- the vital link between the Trump campaign and the county parties is missing for some reason. Now- obviously it’s not there for Democrats or Harris, either, but Trump needs to win about 2/3 of the votes outside of the biggest counties to win Texas, and turn out the vote at at least as high a rate.

Fuck yeah that’s good

It’s bullshit, but at least it’s funny