Jump to content

Bozo_Casanova

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    14121
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    6

Everything posted by Bozo_Casanova

  1. Eh, It is certainly makes intuitive, logical sense stripped of any context (see below), but the caveats you would have to erect around are so numerous and interdependent that it would take a couple thousand words to even gloss the conditions when that would be a true statement. Otherwise the whole idea is just a shuck and jive and that’s been well established for 50+ years. It’s “Voodoo.” even just the word “back” as used above is hugely problematic without conditions. and I don’t blame you btw, that’s why I asked about an economic vocabulary. Again, highly conditional. Marginal rates were super high (which you alluded to later), and the economy was stagnant, but more importantly we were literally on a completely different and much more restrictive monetary system. Again, it’s an intuitive comparison only if you don’t know or think about the fact that we literally don’t use the same money that we used then. They aren’t controversial in economic circles. Nobody disputes that stimulus stimulates, and also nobody other than crackpots and politicians dispute that debt-funded stimulus during expansions that are directed towards asset price support doesn’t pay for itself via job creation or revenue. in other words, it’s just a tax on future productivity. That’s been understood for 50 years, outside of Republican politics. It was even understood in the Reagan White House. Nope, it was asset prices the whole time- that’s why you could have a massive monetary expansion without cpi/ppi inflation. The vast majority never went into jobs. Had it gone into jobs, inflation would have been more of a problem from the 80s-2010’s And that’s also why, btw, you saw a huge inflation spike when they did put the money in worker’s hands in 2021, combined with a supply shock. You had a bunch of money chasing not enough stuff, so prices adjusted, the unemployment rate dropped to nearly zero, and the economy boomed. Like I said- it’s a shuck and jive. And they knew it at the time- this was crackpot stuff prior to Reagan, which is why Bush and old school fiscal conservatives were so horrified by it. But it was politically potent if you don’t know any better, and still is.
  2. I’m still thinking about it. But the reason why I brought up Japan is that scenario (and our own lost decades, punctuated by crisis from 2001-2013) makes me consider if there are fundamental changes that would make a new normal more likely than the old normal, and if so, what is that new normal going to look like and when will it have clear direction? I don’t know what will happen, but I do think a new normal is more likely than a return to the old one. I do not have any conviction yet about what it’s likely to be. I’m not worried about losing a buying opportunity. There are plenty of those every day. I’m worried about failures of imagination.
  3. Right. Default to normalcy, but with volatility. That’s what I thought you meant. What am I missing?
  4. I don’t have a thesis at this point, but do you? It sounds like you just have a default.
  5. Warren Buffet is in cash and God caught the last train for the coast, my dude.
  6. They are basing it on normality bias. Or at least that’s what they’ve said. What I would like to hear is a *first principles* perspective in support of a bullish posture.
  7. - All Nikkei/Japan Longs, 1991-2023
  8. I don’t even bother ordering anymore. Nowadays when I want Popeyes I just go to the one on airport and MLK and just tell them to give me a couple of biscuits and whatever else I can get for $20 cash and keep the change. Everybody wins.
  9. @TwiceHorn do you still disagree that the legal profession is in the midst of an ethical crisis? It certainly looks that way from the outside.
  10. Oh come on. Surely their first duty is to their client. 😉
  11. At least we had some good movies. I honestly think the reason why Gen Xers like Trump more than other cohorts is because when we were growing up and becoming adults, Donald Trump was the brand most synonymous with money and success, fed to us since childhood. We grew up with him and at one point or another we all got sucked into that belief or took it for granted, at least a little. Tough to deprogram that. Yeah but that one swimmer
  12. So here’s my question, and I remember arguing this point with you and others back in 2001 and 2003 w/r/t the Bush tax cuts. What happened as a result was not only predictable at the time but widely demonstrated to the point of certainty. So for people like you (and @Brisketexanand @Ghost of LL), meaning actual conservatives*, why did you fall for it? And why do Conservatives still fall for it? Was it because Republicans then and now use the word “conservative” to describe funding tax stimulus with debt and Democrats and the press let them? Is it because people just don’t have an economic vocabulary to describe what they see with their own eyes? I just don’t get it. * to his credit, McCain opposed the cuts and made the same argument I did, for the same reasons.
  13. Hard pass We traded Luka Doncic and Quinton Grimes for an aging, fragile big man, a defensive 6th man, a guy who will be out of the league by the 26-27 season, and someone in middle school. I’ve got plenty of disdain for everyone.
  14. The Deal
  15. Willa Shalit is actually super impressive in her own right.
  16. Fuck this front office and Jason Kidd and all you people and me too. Fuck everything.
  17. Today Jason Kidd said it was “kinda cool” that the Luka trade was compared to the Babe Ruth trade. They really don’t want me to root for this team anymore.
×
×
  • Create New...