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Bozo_Casanova

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Everything posted by Bozo_Casanova

  1. “The same thing we do every night, Pinky- try to take over the world.”
  2. Biden was talking about Tony Hinchcliffe. Cool your jets.
  3. I like the way this team is put together. Luka looks like he’s in pretty good shape by Luka standards. He just had an off night. 12 months ago Mavs lose this game by 10+
  4. I think he’s he’s saying that their definition of “likely voter” includes the high turnout by tylically low propensity, low education voters who came out for him in 2016 and 2020, and the fact that in those same elections the higher propensity and education voters are thought to have supported Biden and Clinton.
  5. Good commentary that would explain some things
  6. One Week out, RNC Chair Michael Watley is "cautiously optimistic." And now take a deep breath and prepare your mind to be blown
  7. The original spanish version actually got very popular in Miami four years ago. I hate to admit it, but it slaps. That was nine days ago.
  8. I'd ignore that - registration is more of a lagging than leading indicator of anything.
  9. nothing about this is bad news, it's an artifact of demography.
  10. Username checks out. A couple of things - first, the Puerto Rican paper is really more of an indicator of sentiment then a driver of behavior. Second, and far more importantly however, 2/3 of all "Puerto Ricans" actually reside in the mainland US, including about 6% of the population in Florida and nearly 4% of the population of Pennsylvania.
  11. how do you feel about burrata?
  12. So like I been saying 1) It is possible but unlikely that the pollsters are materially underestimating Trump again 2)It is possible but somewhat less likely that the pollsters are bang on the actual results 3) It is possible that the pollsters are underestimating harris and somewhat more likely than 1 or 2.
  13. Yeah, I think that's all true, although I don't think you can compare campaign driven early voting in 2024 to the exogenous weirdness of 2020. The GOP is really leaning into early voting and mail-in voting this time, which is smart, but those numbers come from somewhere. That said, whether Brown wins or loses, he's going to outperform Harris, both in % and absolute terms. And Moreno will not outperform Trump. This is true in general, but I'm not sure it's true this time, for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a uniquely polarizing personality, and I don't think I need to explain that one. There are people who vote for Trump and Democrats everywhere else, and there will be some number of Republicans who don't vote for Trump this time, and vote Harris for President and Moreno for Senate. Second, though - his entire strategy to boost his share is to pull in a disproportional number of low propensity, low information voters. He will get some number ranging from a few to a lot, and most of them will vote Trump and walk out.
  14. They need to run the touchdown play
  15. I think there's going to be both, esp in Nevada. Probably in Ohio as well. The Trump/Sherrod Brown voter is absolutely a real thing.
  16. One afternoon when I was a kid we were parked on Seawall, me and my Dad, sitting on the hood of his Plymouth. He opened a can of beer, handed it to me so I could take a sip, and inhaled that Galveston-only mix of salt and kerosene and seaweed and cheap perfume and cigarette smoke said "this is it, son." And it was. Galveston was and still isTexas profonde in a way that very few places are anymore. Inshallah!
  17. Agreed. San Juan is on a whole other level. One of my favorite things in San Juan is locals you have known for all of 15 minutes apologizing for how bad the beaches are* and then inviting you on a chinchorreo with 3 generations of extended family. *they honestly believe the beaches are not great, despite the fact that they have among the best urban beaches in the world.
  18. I love PR. San Juan in particular combines all the things I love about Galveston and Miami in one place. Maybe one of these days he can really hit the big time and fail to even field a slate of county office candidates like Matt Mackowiak.
  19. For the record, I don't think the joke will have a meaningful impact. But if Trump loses that guy is going to have to keep a low profile for a while because some very emotional people who don't think things through are going to be coming for his head.
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