Pogacar beating Roglic in the TT by the margin he did was certainly unlikely, because even though he was able to get the best of Roglic in a couple of finish line sprints, Roglic had been able to keep it very close and not show an amount of weakness to cause concerns for his GC chances. Plus, Jumbo was riding with the kind of dominance of the old Blue Train and Sky teams of the past. Unlikely, yes, but not to the point of being too suspicious in my opinion.
Pogacar had ridden the TT course many times and knew it was a place to make up time if it came to that. He rode a very smart race without having the arsenal of support that Roglic has, kept it close all the way up to the ITT, and then the perfect storm of him destroying the entire field and Roglic shitting the bed. That being said, I just assume there are always some shenanigans happening at that level of sport, especially cycling, so I guess it depends on your notion of questioning the ability to Pogacar to beat Roglic. While Roglic was the odds on favorite going into the Tour, this isn’t his first poor TT. It was the only real question. I’m sure most people figured 57 seconds would be enough, but what happened today was not out of the realm of reasonable probability. The main reason I watched live today was because of this possibility, even though I thought Roglic would do enough to comfortably keep yellow. It was surprising, but not shocking if that makes sense.