https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-bernie-sanders-front-runner-nomination-20190407-story.html
The biggest difference between 2016 and 2020 is that this time will likely see more than a dozen candidates vying for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire — which means a candidate could win there with no more than 30% of the vote.
There’s precedent for that. Jimmy Carter won Iowa with only 28% in 1976 and went on to win the nomination and the presidency. Twenty years later, Bob Dole won Iowa with 26% and won the Republican nomination.
If Sanders can win both Iowa and New Hampshire, even with narrow pluralities, he’ll be the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination. Since 1972, five of six candidates who won both states in contested races went on to become their party’s nominee.
One lesson we should have learned from 2016 is that in fractured times, implausible outcomes are possible. Don’t count Sanders out.