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softlynow

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Everything posted by softlynow

  1. softlynow
    The same phenomenon showed up this year when season 4 of The Boys came out. MAGAts suddenly realized they were being skewered. For 3 seasons of relentless lampooning of the right, our lemming neighbors somehow loved the show. Unfortunately, I doubt there will be a politics equivalent to the season 4 Trumpkin entertainment awakening.
  2. softlynow
    If he's not running, it means he knows he's lost the confidence of the people, and that they're right to have lost it. If he's not running, he should resign. On top of that, all the media will talk about for a couple weeks will be Kamala. She will have the stage almost entirely to herself, even putting Trump on the sidelines for a bit (unless that two weeks includes his sentencing, I forgot that date right now). If he's not running, it's the best shot at averting this catasrophe. If he doesn't resign, the convention will be a shitshow. Think 1968, but in the building, not out front. And the result in November will be the same.
  3. softlynow
    The ones who don't have private sector options are probably already in full CYA mode. The best we can hope is that a good portion the military brass and the folks in charge of anything nuclear-related are putting collective interests above their own.
  4. softlynow
    Look at this thread as to why Biden stepping aside would be fun for all, but dangerous for Dems/Democracy. A contested convention would be a live action version of a football game thread with the volume turned up to 11 and the stakes for fucking real. No telling how that shit would go. Contested conventions could be be unpredictable in the era when mass media was the evening newspaper, and now the news is old in 15 minutes, with the added bonus that anyone with a phone could be "reporting" news or simply trying to mislead. You might end up with someone way, way, way off the radar swooping in to take the nomination. It could be Stacey Abrams, Sherrod Brown, AOC, John Cena, Al Franken, or Jimmy Smits. Folks who assume Gavin just strolls in and takes it are delusional. It might be the best cable news TV week of all time. If this is the year we lose democracy, we might as well be entertained. What do you say, Joe?
  5. softlynow
    He ran against a guy vowing to raise taxes (and right when the most self-centered generation was looking to get paid), an economy on the rebound from a quite dismal period, and his party lockstep behind him. Biden does have the opponent whose ceiling does seem to be ~42%, which is nice. But he's facing a press that will not allow people to think this economy is even OK, and is a Democrat, for whom being in lockstep is a rarity, and certainly a longshot this go 'round. We need to accept that we're off the map here. That doesn't mean either course is preferable, it just means, to me, that the predictive value of any previous election is rather thin. About the only thing I agree with, in that regard, is the power of incumbency. I think if Joe wasn't going to seek reelection, he would've said so long before now.
  6. softlynow
    If by "not many" you mean 50-60 million, then you nailed it!
  7. softlynow
  8. softlynow
    The Courts can restrain, you say? Them and what army?
  9. softlynow
    He's talking about SCOTUS deligitimizing the federal government to the point that only pure power matters. Biden can do what he wants, within the practical limits of his power. He is immune from criminal prosecution for official acts. To the extent that he can direct people to act, he is unrestrained.
  10. softlynow
    Yep. Our little experiment only carries on as long as the people buy in. One half of the electorate was already ready to be done with the republic. 6 justices are trying their best to persuade the other half. Long live King Biden I! He should act like it lest he be responsible for Dotard I.
  11. softlynow
    Some of my clients saw arrest as temporary and desirable a solution to that problem, though those "commitments" were essentially voluntary.
  12. softlynow
    I'm given their name and access to the state's file on day 1. Those with moderated to severe illness are almost always still in jail when I am assigned. I have seen a few of them a couple or many years later. I mostly don't disagree with anything you've said. But I would add that the folks with less severe issues than you describe are also a problem we've decided to mostly ignore, outside of the criminal justice system. One point I take issue with: we DO involuntarily commit. A lot. We just call it "arrest." Then we don't treat them, for the most part. I've had many, many discussions with ADAs and judges about whether any of our very limited mental health resources are available for a client. I'd say less than 5% of the time, it's even a possibility. A tiny portion of that get to treatment. I would guess that 75% of our homeless population has a criminal record, even if we disregard tresspassing convictions, which is really just a Scarlet H.
  13. softlynow
    Swift / Kelce '24 No Travis. Jason.
  14. softlynow
    I'll allow it.
  15. softlynow
    @Dbeasy, now that I'm caught up on the deck chairs arranging that is this homelessness argument, I just gotta say you have been a terrible advocate for this ruling. I think it was correctly decided, but seeing your posts before the ruling, I was initially inclined the other way. JMO, but you could do with some nuance in your argumentation. And you should focus on the actual opinion, not our general policies w/r/t the homeless. The first couple pages of the opinion do a good job of walking one through what should and should not be considered "cruel and unusual." That would've been a better place for you to ground your position. Just a little constructive criticism.
  16. softlynow
    I've represented several dozen formally diagnose as schizoaffective. Several dozen more with other mental illnesses that contributed to anti-social behavior. I was appointed to represent them because they had no money or significant property. And? I think the question is whether they are homeless involuntarily. I'm not aware of people voluntarily becoming schizoaffective. Just want to know where you're going with this.
  17. softlynow
    Law school is, first and foremost, a means to an income. Every other consideration is secondary. Right now law students and recent grads are seeing that corruption can be quite lucrative and their opportunities in that field are increasing. Why would they want a refund?
  18. softlynow
    It's not a great movie, but Elysium seems like one of the most plausible dystopian futures, given current trends.
  19. softlynow
    I’m sorry. Were y’all really expecting the Court to not hand Trump an assist by delaying the immunity decision as long as necessary? On the 1/6 cases, how many of the defendants are solely charged with the obstruction statute SCOTUS dealt with? In this case, I believe it was only 1 of 7 charges. The others they did not discuss. Hardly a resounding win for that defendant.
  20. softlynow
    Tap the brakes. Jackson concurred with the majority. I skimmed the majority and the concurrence, and, while I didn't see enough to analyze the opinion itself, that quick read does tell me this will have a very limited impact on 1/6 prosecutions.
  21. softlynow
    Trump immunity ruling from SCOTUS stops that cycle.
  22. softlynow
    If the election was in July, very.
  23. softlynow
    Let me clarify. Undecideds. Like you say, there are lots of indys that are already decided. They aren't likely changing their vote after tonight.
  24. softlynow
    Well, it looks like the cooler heads are now prevailing in this thread. Fun while it lasted.
  25. softlynow
    To that point, they're usually independent because they don't pay attention until the end.

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