I'd put Arch more in the early Colt McCoy stage right now. A guy from a smaller school who is learning while he goes. Colt didn't have the pedigree but you saw flashes. Arch has these high expectations because of his name which gave him the high star rating. Maybe he's just average. Average could be enough.
Like I said, the stats between VY's game against UNT in '04 and Arch's last weekend have some eerie similarities. The teams do, too.
1. Both QBs averaged around a 2/3ds completion rate. (14/21 vs 19/30)
2. Both QBs averaged about 6 ypc (49 yds 8 att, 23 yds 6 att)
3. Both teams are breaking in brand new WR cores. (04 just lost the Big 3 of Roy, Sloan and BJ)
4. Both teams have talented but rough OLs
5. Both teams have dominant defenses. (04 was the year of Robinson/Tomey, and DJ's senior year)
The biggest differences?
1. A senior Cedric Benson in 04
2. VY only had 1 TD to his credit and no turnovers; Arch had 5, but one int.
Those are just the superficial numbers, though. The real similarities come in how idiot fans are responding to it; then, they wanted to move VY to receiver. Now? They've all decided that Arch sucks and cashed in on his name. Equally stupid ideas; the right reaction is: These are extremely talented redshirt sophomores, early into their first years as full-time starters, who need to grow into the role.
And honestly, Arch is going to have an easier time of it than VY did. Unlike Vince, who needed the offense changed to suit his strengths, Arch already knows the playbook, and just needs reps for the game to slow down enough to apply it right.