I live in DC, so unfortunately I'm exposed to this race. I don't do much cloak room so my take on this could be terrible.
Having said that, I don't know who the fuck is running McAullife's campaign, but it seems like they suck. Youngkin runs mostly positive feel good ads and he has steered clear of anything Trumpian. The McAullife ads never say what McAullife's vision is and only try to scream Youngkin=Trump. Youngkin does not come off as Trump like in any way. They should attack a different way.
Back in March or April, I wondered why Republicans were even trying because I didn't think they had a chance. McAullife probably wins, but his campaign is awful and he really fucked up in the debate where he said something like he didn't want parents involved in school decisions. Youngkin's campaign has used that sound bite masterfully and, if he wins, that will be a big reason.