I didn't start this thread to handicap who will be speaker, though if that's what this thread turns into it, I'm cool with it. I'm trying to figure out how the Speaker will be determined and the more I look into it, the more I realize I don't understand how it all plays out and I'm hoping some of the House experts in here can give an opinion on how it might play out. I'm going to assume an R majority of about 5 seats.
I know you have to get 218 votes to be speaker and I keep reading the Freedom Caucus may use their leverage to prevent Kevin McCarthy from being speaker. But, what's to prevent another caucus from forming and demanding different concessions? If the difference is really 5 votes, I guess any 5 members can say, "I won't vote for McCarthy and demand Steve Scalise!" If that happens, couldn't 5 others not vote for Scalise? I know there are deals that get made, but you can't make 218 individual deals and have everyone happy.
Is there anything to prevent a coalition of moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats from voting for a particular candidate to be speaker?
Finally, what if it's a 1 seat majority? Do they have to hold new elections for Speaker should 2 in the majority, die, resign, get sick, or what have you? And then do they have to do it again if a special election overturns another majority?
I said I wouldn't handicap it, but my prediction is Kevin McCarthy will not be speaker. If he is, I hope it's more miserable for him than I think it would be trying to shepherd Boebert (if the cunt wins!), MTG, Gaetz, and a few of their other wack jobs.