WhatTheBuck

FRONTLINE.

We went through 12 years of Reagan/Bush. We’ve paid our dues.

Hillary would be thrilled.

She just needs to campaign there. I was assured that Hillary lost because she didn’t do that.

Yeah, we know how any candidate from California or New York would be attacked. There isn’t a Dem candidate who won’t be painted as a radical left extremist who’s soft on crime and wants open borders, etc. Muslim-Americans make up a significant constituency for Gretchen Whitmer. She’d be painted as pro-Hamas and anti-Israel. She’d be accused of trying to kill the auto industry because of her support of EVs. It’s easy to write Trumpian campaign ads. Unless there’s a candidate who wouldn’t be trashed by them, I don’t see the point.

Who’s the candidate that Republicans won’t run negative attack ads against?

This jibes pretty well with what I’ve been saying. Kamala Harris top choice to replace Joe Biden if he steps aside, sources say https://www.reuters.com/world/us/vp-harris-top-choice-replace-biden-election-race-if-he-steps-aside-sources-say-2024-07-03/ WASHINGTON, July 3 (Reuters) - Vice President Kamala Harris is the top alternative to replace U.S. President Joe Biden if he decides not to continue his reelection campaign, according to seven senior sources at the Biden campaign, the White House and the Democratic National Committee with knowledge of current discussions on the topic. Biden's fumbling, sometimes-incoherent and widely-panned first-debate performance against Republican rival Donald Trump last week set off a wave of panic within the Democratic party over concerns that he may not be fit enough to serve a second term, and prompted calls for top aides to resign. Some influential Democrats have floated alternatives to Biden besides Harris, including popular cabinet members and Democratic governors like Gavin Newsom from California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. But trying to sidestep Harris is wishful thinking and would be nearly impossible, these sources, who did not wish to be named, said. If named as the party nominee, Harris, 59, would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, the sources said. She also has the highest name recognition among all the alternatives, and the highest polling among Democrats who could seriously be considered a candidate, the sources said. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday, Harris trailed Trump by one percentage point at 42% to 43%, a difference that was well within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, a showing statistically just as strong as Biden's. In addition, she has already been vetted for national office and has survived intense scrutiny from Republicans, they said. Also, U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, the man who was key to Biden's 2020 win, told MSNBC he would support Harris to be the Democratic nominee if Biden stepped aside. "It's pretty near impossible to win the nomination over the vice president," said Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist from California who worked for Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2008 and 2016. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday that Biden just had a "bad night" at the debate and would continue to make his case for reelection to the American people. The Biden campaign deferred to Harris's team for comment on the story. Harris's aides dismissed any talk of a Democratic ticket that doesn't include both Biden and Harris. "Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden," a statement from her office said. Biden's campaign has amassed 3,894 delegates after state primaries, leaving only a few dozen "uncommitted" delegates outstanding. They are expected to formally nominate Biden later this month in a virtual meeting, ahead of the Democrats' nominating convention in August. "All of the delegates are not just Joe Biden delegates, they are Kamala Harris delegates," Trujillo said, adding "she will have a sizable delegation and support in all 50 states on day one," he said. Donna Brazile, the former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee, who has a key committee role at this year's Democratic National Convention in August, said the person who can step in right away, if Biden decides not to run, is Harris. "People may have dreams of another superhero but there is a process and the last time I checked it's a Biden-Harris ticket, she's number two on the ticket," Brazile said, adding Biden remains the nominee for the Democratic party and "is not going anywhere." Passing over the first Black and woman vice president for another candidate would lead to a backlash from Black and women voters who are key to any victory, several Democratic strategists said. 'IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE KAMALA' Still, Harris has been sidestepped in a lot of the speculation since the debate because some influential Democrats have little faith she can beat Trump, four of the sources said. The United States has never elected a woman president, and Harris has spent much of her time as vice president struggling to distinguish herself in a role that is by definition a supporting one. As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign privately worried she was a liability for the campaign. Since then, Harris has managed to find her stride on the issue of abortion rights but her polling has not improved significantly. Harris's approval ratings hover under 40%, but according to recent polling highlighted by the Biden campaign, she and the president have similar odds of beating Trump. The vice president has also been consistently targeted by Republicans and conservative media in attacks many allies consider sexist and racist. Three Democratic donors, who have recently been pushing for Biden to step aside, also said this week they think it will be "impossible" to sidestep Harris. The donors had been floating Whitmer and Newsom's names as possible alternatives until the past weekend. "There is a real conversation in the Democratic party about leadership right now, but fair to say, and I'm not thrilled about this... it will be impossible to ignore Kamala," said one of the donors. Another donor said "she's nobody's choice, but yeah, nearly impossible." Still, the president's reelection campaign is standing its ground, emboldened by a stronger performance by Biden during a scripted speech in North Carolina even as calls for him to step aside grow. Stephanie Cutter, deputy campaign manager for former President Barack Obama, whose firm is on contract to produce the Democratic National Convention in August, said "President Biden is the nominee and he's going to remain the nominee." "For those who are looking for some sort of interparty fight, be careful what you wish for because that would ensure a Trump victory," she said in a statement.

If Biden drops out, we’re going to find out that a lot of people were lying through their teeth when they said it was his age that was keeping them from voting against Trump. I don’t know about your friend but for most I don’t think it’s because they were afraid of Trump. Quite the contrary. I think deep down they like him. They’re just afraid to admit it.

I’m not saying Whitmer wouldn’t be a fine candidate. But it’s not a two horse race. There are plenty of capable possibilities. Newsom would be one too. So would Buttigieg but I don’t think he’d run. What about Warren? Or Booker? Whitmer probably ranks relatively low in terms of national name recognition. The point is that they’re all unproven candidates. There’s no sure thing. Joe Biden is the only candidate who’s proven he can beat Trump. I see a lot of people suffering from what looks a little like backup QB syndrome where in their mind their preferred candidate is the obvious, logical choice and they seem to think it will be plug-n-play. Their candidate should get the nod and off we go. It’s not that simple. And we’ll be taking a risk with any of them. You even used the term “given the nod.” By whom? How many votes at the convention will it take before they settle on anyone? The superdelegates get involved starting with the second vote. Will they be the nod-givers? Anyone other than Harris and it’s going to be a big mess with weeks of infighting while the media focus on the chaos and ignore Trump’s insanity. Harris is the only candidate for whom the transition would go smoothly. It’s not an opinion that Kamala Harris holds the highest office of any of the would-be contenders. It’s a fact. She’s literally next in line to the presidency. I’ll ignore Aqua’s Ron DeSantis comparison because it’s not worthy of consideration. Have you noticed the propensity for everyone suggesting other candidates to name white candidates? (Save for Michelle Obama but that’s not a realistic suggestion.) What happens if the sitting, capable VP who happens to be black gets passed over for a white candidate of lesser standing? How will black voters deal with that insult? Talk about taking them for granted. Jim Clyburn has already stated that if Joe drops out then he’ll endorse Kamala. Don’t overlook how problematic it will be if Harris gets the shaft. If Harris does get passed over and we move to a brokered convention, I’d bet that Gavin Newsom would be the most likely nominee. He seems to be positioning himself. He was quick to show his support for Biden after the debate. He’s flying to DC today to “stand with Biden.” Seems to me he’d be in a good position to pick up the mantle if it comes to that. Maybe Whitmer would be a good candidate to run as his VP. 😝

She’s been a senator and the vice president. Your girl Gretchen has never held national office before. But you think she’s better prepared? I’m thinking you might not be entirely objective in this matter.

And he’s a guy who once complained about how Supreme Court justices get paid so little, maybe he should leave for a job in the private sector.

There’d be the added benefit that Trump would hate getting beat by her more than anyone else in the world. She’s both a black woman AND an Obama! She’s extra nasty!

But they’ll hear it, right? And that will delay things further. They’ll claim everything they can and it will all get heard. And then if he wins the election he’ll sic the DoJ on everyone prosecuting him along with their spouses and children until he’s let off scot free. Right?

What about every phone call he made to Cohen (or Weissman or anyone else) while he was president? Couldn’t he claim those were official business so they can’t be used as evidence and the motive for the calls can’t be considered?

Ugh. I disagreed with him a lot too and his voice reminds me of Sebastian Gorka. I couldn’t get that out of my head.

Gretchen Fetchin

Before she wins the nomination? You don’t think your chosen candidate would just be handed the nomination, do you? Because there’s someone who thinks it should naturally go to Gavin Newsom and someone else who thinks it should go to Pete Buttigieg, and others who think it should go to who knows whom else. If Joe drops out and doesn’t endorse his VP, there will be a long way to go with a lot of infighting before they arrive at a nominee. I mentioned Pod Save America earlier. They did a good show on Joe vs. The Unknown this past Friday. They debated the pros and cons of Joe staying in or dropping out. At 21 minutes in they discuss the possibilities of what would happen if Joe drops out, whether he endorses Harris or leaves it open to be decided at a brokered convention. It’s a long episode, almost 90 minutes. Live from Boston it included the Massachusetts Governor and also some sports talk. But there’s a lot of substance on the complexities involved if Joe drops out. It’s not as simple as you just getting the candidate you want and all the money flowing their way easy peasy. You should check it out: https://crooked.com/podcast/joe-vs-the-unknown/

So long black vote.

Anything other than a vote for the Democratic candidate is a vote for Trump.

Reportedly $240 Million. They reported $127M raised in June with $38M of that raised after the debate. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/02/biden-campaign-june-fundraising-post-trump-debate

It could be Harris. The guys from Pod Save America pointed out that it’s the Biden/Harris campaign so if Biden drops out and Harris is the nominee, all that infrastructure and campaign cash would still be available to her. Not so for anyone else. That’s not to say there wouldn’t likely be some change-up in the staffing but their main point was about the money. She’s the only other candidate who’d have free access to it because she’s already on the ticket.

You’re kind of a dimwit if you think there’s nothing analogous between the two. Again, your assertion is that the loser of the first contest has nothing to gain from a rematch.

You don’t handle criticism well at all. Has anyone ever told you that? Go ahead and get defensive and hostile. You’re wrong. You’re so wrong it’s not really worth my time trying to explain the obvious to you. But I’ll throw you a bone and see if you can figure it out. There are two debates scheduled. All Biden had to do in the first one was go out there and show that he’s got it together and exceed the very low expectations set for him by his opponent. He failed miserably at that. So there’s another debate scheduled and if he can go out and show us the Biden we wanted to see in the first debate, you’re arguing that there is nothing to be gained by that. And you have the nerve to call me a moron. Lol, please. (It doesn’t matter whether you think he can improve his performance or not. That’s immaterial.) It’s not rocket science. Biden lost the first contest. Of course he would benefit from a better performance in a rematch. How is that even questioned? You’ve followed sports before, right? This isn’t a novel concept.

Wrong. His best chance to make everyone forget about the first one is to turn in a solid performance in a second one. That should be self-evident. No one is going to forget the first one. Trump will flood the airways with reminders.

Biden has every reason to attempt a do over and show that the first debate was a fluke. A better showing in a second debate would help him immensely. That’s why Trump would never give Biden the chance. Trump has nothing to gain.