If they want to put us in, they will find a way to do it. Only question is who gets fucked over in the process, and how much blowback there would be. Every P4 champion gets an automatic bid, and the highest-ranked G5 gets an automatic bid. That means a G5 plus either Duke or Virginia will take up a spot. Notre Dame will also take up a spot since they are leading Stanford by 32 points before halftime. That's nine remaining spots.
Ohio State and Indiana are locks, that's seven remaining spots.
Georgia is a lock. That's six remaining spots.
Ole Miss is a lock. That's five remaining spots.
The Big XII champ is a lock. That's four remaining spots.
Texas A&M is a lock. That's three remaining spots.
Oregon is a lock. That's two remaining spots.
Teams whose seasons are over, fighting for those two spots, in no particular order
Oklahoma (2 loss), Vandy (2 loss), Utah (2 loss), Miami (2 loss), Texas (3 loss)
Teams whose seasons aren't yet over, also able to clinch one of those two spots:
Alabama (2 loss - can win SEC auto bid), BYU (1 loss - can win Big XII auto bid), Texas Tech (1 loss - can win Big XII auto bid)
I think Utah is easy to fuck over, so they're out.
I think the ACC is weak as hell, but leaving Miami out is going to be hard to justify.
The harder part is justifying putting Texas over Alabama, Oklahoma, and Vandy, especially when there are already three SEC teams in.
If Georgia beats Alabama, that helps a bit, but there still needs to be a willingness for the CFP to put a 3-loss Texas over 2-loss Vandy and Oklahoma. The head to head helps a lot, but are they willing to take criticism from those fanbases? Vandy is flush with cash, and Oklahoma is a blue blood.
The amount Texas jumps for beating A&M is going to provide a lot of insight into how they are leaning. We need to hope for UVA and Georgia to win out. Texas Tech over BYU, too, although I feel like they won't want to include any 2-loss Big XII team regardless if that loss was in a conference title game. B1G title game doesn't matter much except for determining who has to travel and where to.
I've done more than my fair share of criticizing Sark this season, but I will give him credit for knowing exactly when and how hard to begin lobbying for his team. I hope CDC and the BMDs are doing everything in their power behind the scenes to prevent Arch Manning from having to play in a shitty bowl game.